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Shenzhen will play an important role in the digital currency pilot
Shenzhen Business Daily, November 18, 2019 On the 17th, the 2019 China Economic 50 Forum Shenzhen Seminar was held at the Shenzhen Wuzhou Hotel. Huang Yiping, a member of the China Economic 50 Forum and vice president of the National School of Development at Peking University, said in an exclusive interview with a Shenzhen Business Daily reporter that the biggest problem facing the current financial system is that it cannot keep up with the pace of economic transformation, and it is necessary to vigorously develop a multi-level capital market in the future. Huang Yiping pointed out that digital finance may become an important area of international financial competition in the future, and digital currency may be the ultimate battlefield of competition. "The People's Bank of China may become the first to issue central bank digital currency."
The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has the potential to build a world-class digital financial innovation center
Huang Yiping said that China's financial system has two very prominent characteristics: one is that there is relatively more policy intervention; the other is that the proportion of banks is relatively high.
How will China's economy achieve growth in the future? Huang Yiping said that future growth needs to rely on innovation, and the main force of innovation, private enterprises, contribute 70% of domestic intellectual property rights, most of which are small and medium-sized enterprises.
Huang Yiping said that one direction of financial innovation is to develop a multi-level capital market. However, in the foreseeable future, the main force of China's finance will still be traditional financial institutions, especially the challenge of bank transformation is how to effectively conduct credit assessment and provide financing services for light-asset, innovative private enterprises.
At present, there are some relatively good innovations, including new risk control methods. Huang Yiping said that on the one hand, offline channels are used to establish long-term relationships, such as the "deep cultivation model" and "credit factory" to fully understand enterprises and entrepreneurs; on the other hand, online big data is directly used to apply machine learning methods to analyze the behavior and risks of enterprises and entrepreneurs.
"Without finance, it is difficult for innovation to truly support economic growth." He believes that for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, it is necessary to build an effective, efficient and adaptable financial system that can support innovative activities.
There are two core points in building the financial system of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area: integration and transformation. Huang Yiping gave four suggestions on integration and transformation: first, establish a financial coordination committee for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area; second, actively promote the reform of the Hong Kong and Shenzhen capital markets; third, encourage commercial banks to accelerate the transformation of their business models; and fourth, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has the potential to build a world-class digital financial innovation center.
Shenzhen will play an important role in digital currency pilot
On August 18, the "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Supporting Shenzhen in Building a Pilot Demonstration Zone of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics" was released. The "Opinions" pointed out that a pilot zone for innovative development of the digital economy should be built, and support should be given to the development of innovative applications such as digital currency research and mobile payments in Shenzhen. As soon as the news came out, it attracted widespread attention from all parties.
In this regard, Huang Yiping said that Shenzhen, as a world-leading technology and financial innovation center, will play an important role in the trial of digital currency. This move will not only further enhance Shenzhen’s innovation capabilities, but also contribute to the country’s financial strategy.
In modern society, the ultimate determinant of competition between countries is financial competitiveness. Huang Yiping believes that in the future, financial competition between countries may take place in the field of digital finance, and digital currency may be the ultimate battlefield of this new competition.
He believes that if you master global digital currency , you will have a great deal of influence on the global payment and monetary system. Of course, the participants in this competition are not only central banks and monetary authorities of various countries, but also many non-governmental organizations and institutions.
Since 2014, the People's Bank of China has been planning to research digital currency and preparing to issue its own digital currency . It can be regarded as one of the global trend leaders.
"The People's Bank of China is likely to become the first to officially issue central bank digital currency," said Huang Yiping.
Solving the financing difficulties of private enterprises can start with credit assessment
Difficult and expensive financing has been a major problem faced by private enterprises in recent years. Huang Yiping believes that there are two obstacles to private enterprise financing: first, because private enterprises are usually small and unstable, and lack financial data, collateral assets and government guarantees, banks cannot conduct effective credit risk assessments on them; second, interest rates for deposits and loans have not yet been liberalized, and banks cannot conduct market-based risk pricing for private enterprise financing. If prices cannot cover risks, it will be difficult to make loans.
Regarding how to solve the problem of difficulty and high cost of financing for private enterprises, Huang Yiping said that we can start from credit assessment and promoting the interest rate market.
From the perspective of credit assessment, there are mainly two approaches: one is offline soft information. Banks can rely on the layout of outlets to build files for small and medium-sized enterprises and entrepreneurs, and have a comprehensive understanding of enterprises and entrepreneurs to make relatively effective credit assessments. The second is online big data. Internet banks established in recent years have used the digital footprints left by individuals and enterprises online to build risk control models using machine learning and big data analysis methods, achieving good risk control results. By using the long-tail effect of digital technology, we can serve millions or tens of millions of customers and truly achieve the goal of inclusiveness.
The global economy will remain stable next year
The global economic situation has been quite severe since the beginning of this year. Regarding the trend of economic development next year, Huang Yiping believes that the global economy should remain relatively stable next year.
Most US officials and experts expect US GDP to grow between 1.5% and 2.0% next year. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has already started to cut interest rates, and there is a high probability that monetary policy will not be tightened again next year.
Regarding the domestic economy next year, Huang Yiping believes that the government is adopting active fiscal policies, especially tax cuts. At the same time, if the China-US economic and trade consultations can reach a first-phase agreement as expected, at least the continued rise in policy uncertainty can be curbed. All this means that China's economy is likely to stabilize around 6% next year.
"Of course, this does not mean that the downward pressure on the economy has completely disappeared," Huang Yiping said. "The continued stabilization and even recovery of the economy still requires the transformation of new and old drivers, which requires more vigorous supply-side structural reforms." |
