Abstract: The market fell slightly, the market diverged significantly, and a major change was brewing, and short-term uncertainty increased further. The six-year-old MT.Gox case may be liquidated, and nearly 140,000 bitcoins are among them. Regardless of the liquidation method, its destination will cause short-term selling pressure on the market, and it needs to be paid close attention to in the near future.

At 10:30 today, the 8BTCCI market index reported 9329.89 points, with a 24-hour change of -0.49%, reflecting a slight decline in the market; the total transaction volume was 979.178 billion yuan, with a 24-hour change of -5.79%, and the market activity declined. The Bitcoin Strength Index reported 101.89 points, with a 24-hour change of +1.92%, and the relative performance of altcoins in the entire market has become stronger; ChaiNext USDT OTC Discount and Premium Index reported 101.23, with a 24-hour change of -0.95%, and the USDT OTC premium level has weakened.

Analysts’ Views:

Recently, behind the Mentougou case which happened six years ago, a time bomb affecting the market has started to activate.

In February 2014, MT.Gox (Mentougou), the world's largest Bitcoin trading platform at the time, suddenly announced on its website that it would stop trading and subsequently filed for bankruptcy. The price of Bitcoin subsequently fell sharply, almost halving that week. It was revealed that the reason for the closure may be a hacker attack, with about 744,000 Bitcoins stolen, and there were also speculations that it was stolen by the insiders. The major case six years ago is still under investigation, and the truth has not yet been revealed.

During the case, MT.Gox asset trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi had been selling bitcoins in the past, selling at least 35,000 bitcoins and bitcoin cash, which brought a greater risk of selling pressure to the market at that time. For example, from December 2017 to February 2018, Nobuaki Kobayashi sold 35,841 BTC and 34,008 BCH, with a total value of about US$400 million, which exacerbated the continued decline in Bitcoin prices.

At present, there are nearly 140,000 bitcoins and bitcoin cash in the wallet addresses of the MT.Gox case, which is a potential time bomb left for the market. The day before yesterday, a draft liquidation plan for the Mentougou case surfaced. Whether it is a legal currency cash liquidation or a crypto asset liquidation, there is a possibility that bitcoin will enter the market. The deadline for submitting the aftermath plan for the Mentougou case is the end of this month. It can be said that the time bomb of the Mentougou case has been officially activated. In the future, whether the draft is passed once and for all or the liquidation is continued, investors should pay close attention to the progress of this incident.

1. Spot BTC market

Since yesterday, BTC has been trading sideways, with long and short positions continuing to stalemate, volume shrinking, and four-hour MACD sticking together. The market is beginning to brew a change. The current position is critical. If it can break upward, the space above $6,900 will open up. However, the recent failure to break through indicates that the pressure from above is relatively large, and the risk is greater than the benefit, so it is mainly a wait-and-see approach.

2. Spot ETH Market

ETH has been converging after the previous sharp drop, and its overall trend is not as good as BTC. Today, it has been fluctuating downward and converging. A relatively large-scale change is brewing in the short term. Pay attention to risk avoidance.

3. Spot BCH Market

Recently, the overall trend of BCH is stronger than that of ETH. It is currently above the $220 area where chips are concentrated. This may be affected by the positive expectations of the halving in April. Today, there are more funds flowing in, and it will continue to be linked to BTC in the short term.

4. Spot LTC Market

LTC continues to adjust with reduced volume, MACD sticks together near the zero axis, long and short positions continue to be in a stalemate, and a short-term reversal is brewing.

5. Spot EOS Market

EOS continued to fluctuate around $2.3 today, with the volume and amplitude further shrinking. There were obvious differences in the net inflow of funds in the market today, and there is great short-term uncertainty.

6. Spot ETC Market

Since yesterday, ETC's performance has been similar. The pressure from the upper $5.2 order has been released to some extent. Currently, it is fluctuating in the area where chips are concentrated, and there may be a coordinated change in the market in the short term.

7. Analyst Strategy

1. Long-term (1-3 years)

Although the long-term trend of BTC is deteriorating, the price is not far from the bottom, which is a good time to hoard coins and make fixed investments. You can refer to the hoarding coin index. The leading smart contract platform ETH, the leading altcoin LTC, the leading DPoS EOS, the leading BTC fork coin BCH, and the leading ETH fork coin ETC can be configured at low prices.

2. Mid-term (January to March)

Affected by the overall financial environment, it is difficult for Bitcoin to bottom out in a short period of time. Those with light positions should intervene in batches.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

The long and short positions continue to be in a stalemate, and there is a possibility of a change in the market in the short term, so it is better to wait and see.

Appendix: Indicator Explanation

1. 8BTCCI Market Index

8BTCCI Market Index is composed of the most representative tokens with large scale and good liquidity in the existing global blockchain market, so as to comprehensively reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain token market.

2. Bitcoin Strength Index

The Bitcoin Strength Index (BTCX) reflects the exchange status of Bitcoin in the entire Token market, and further reflects the strength of Bitcoin's competition in the market. It is used to measure the degree of change in the relative price of Bitcoin to a basket of Tokens. The larger the BTCX index, the stronger Bitcoin's performance in the Token market.

3. Alternative Sentiment Index

The Fear & Greed Index reflects the changes in market sentiment, with 0 meaning "extreme fear" and 100 meaning "extreme greed." The components of the index include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online surveys (15%), market share (10%), and trends (10%).

4. USDT OTC Discount and Premium Index

ChaiNext USDT OTC Premium/Discount Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. When the index is 100, it means USDT is at par, when the index is greater than 100, it means USDT is at a premium, and when it is less than 100, it means USDT is at a discount.

5. Net capital inflow (outflow)

This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. It calculates the difference between the inflow and outflow of funds on the global trading platform (without eliminating false transactions). A positive value indicates a net inflow of funds, while a negative value indicates a net outflow of funds. Among them, the transaction amount when the market rises is counted as inflow of funds, and the transaction amount when the market falls is counted as outflow of funds.

6.BTC-HOD indicator

The coin hoarding indicator was created by Weibo user ahr999 to assist Bitcoin fixed investment users in making investment decisions based on timing strategies. The indicator consists of the product of two parts: the former is the ratio of Bitcoin price to Bitcoin's 200-day fixed investment cost; the latter is the ratio of Bitcoin price to Bitcoin's fitted price. Generally speaking, when the indicator is lower than 0.45, it is more suitable to increase the investment amount (bottom-fishing), and the time interval accounts for about 21%; when the indicator is between 0.45 and 1.2, it is suitable to adopt a fixed investment strategy, and the time interval accounts for about 39%.

Note: Crypto assets are high-risk assets. This article is for decision-making reference only and does not constitute investment advice.