Market Analysis: The Rise Has Just Begun? How High Will ETH Rise?

The epidemic in Europe has begun to ease, and the Federal Reserve has spared no effort to release more stimulus policies to stabilize the "front line". Global stock markets have begun to rebound and rise today, and BTC is no exception. So far, BTC has reached a high of $7,453 today. In terms of contracts, bulls are clearly dominant. BCH will be halved tomorrow, and ETH has risen strongly. Will the currency market sweep away the haze of March and start to climb? We will give the answer below.

Last month, Feixiaohao did a research project, "The Relationship between the Retracement Amplitude and Time of BTC/Mainstream Coins/Non-mainstream Coins". We collected the rise and fall data of these three types of coins in a large decline, and calculated some rules of the rise of different coins during each callback:

1. ETH will occasionally complete its downward trend before BTC and stop falling and rebound; if ETH stops falling, then the entire downward trend may enter its final stage.

2. From the price point of view, the BTC callback range is more than 0.6, the ETH callback range is more than 0.95, and the non-mainstream currency callback range is more than 0.9.

Based on these two important conclusions, we can know that ETH has stopped falling and has risen by nearly 20%. If there is no other objective negative news, we can basically be sure that it is now in an upward period.

BTC market trend (April 7, 16:00)

ETH market trend (April 7, 16:00)

Next, we use the same calculation method to analyze whether ETH's rise has ended and how much room BTC has for rebound.

The rise and fall patterns of BTC and ETH this time

BTC:

In the last round of decline, BTC reached a high of $10,500 on February 13, 2020, and plummeted to a new low of $3,800 on March 13, 2020, with a decline of $6,700;

In this rise, the highest point so far is 6453.76. Subtracting the lowest point of the previous wave of 3800, the difference in increase is 3653.76.

The retracement range is the difference between the rise and the previous decline, 3653.76/6700=54.53%. It can be seen that the retracement range of BTC has not exceeded 0.6.

If the BTC callback amplitude exceeds 0.6, then: 10500*0.6=7820, that is, if BTC rises to 7820 US dollars, it can be regarded that this round of callback is basically over. Whether it will continue to rise next needs to be judged from the news rather than the technical aspect.

ETH:

Using the same calculation method, ETH’s last high was $288.36 on February 15, 2020, and its low was $87 on March 13, 2020, with a drop of $201.36.

In this rise, the highest point so far is 176.3 US dollars, minus the lowest point of the previous wave of 87 US dollars, the difference in the rise is 89.3.

The current retracement range of ETH is: 89.3/201.36=44.35%, which is almost half of the 0.95 obtained in the research conclusion.

If the ETH callback range reaches 0.95, then: 288.36*0.95=278.29. In this round of callback, ETH will at least rise to 278.29 US dollars before the callback is over.

The callback time of the two currencies is almost the same this time, but the amplitude of ETH is less than BTC. According to the past market conditions, ETH will start the upward trend before BTC and will end it before BTC. The increase of ETH should also be greater than BTC, so the final conclusion has come out: ETH will continue to rise, and BTC still has room to rise.

Although the research conclusion shows that it is still in the rising period, another reason cannot be ruled out - the rise of BTC/ETH will have to wait until the next wave to complete the correction, which means that there is still a possibility of accumulating momentum for another rise after another decline. Investors are advised to pay more attention to the real-time increase and trend of BTC and ETH as much as possible, and avoid blindly buying or shorting, which is very dangerous.

Link to this article: https://www.8btc.com/media/579245
Please indicate the source of the article when reprinting