Ethereum Futures Optimism at Monthly Low – Is $2,800 a Buy Zone?

ETH took a beating on February 3 and has struggled to stay above $2,800 since then. Ethereum is down 24.5% over the past 30 days, while the cryptocurrency market cap has fallen 10% over the same period. This performance has disappointed investors, and some have begun to question whether ETH has enough momentum to return to bullish territory.

ETH futures markets are currently showing the lowest level of optimism among professional traders in more than a month. The development has raised concerns about whether Ethereum can recover to $3,400 in the short term.

ETH top traders' long-to-short ratio. Source: CoinGlass

A higher long-to-short ratio generally indicates that traders favor long (buy) positions, while a lower ratio indicates that traders favor short (sell) contracts. Currently, Binance’s top ETH traders report a long-to-short ratio of 3.3x, well below the previous two-week average of 4.4x. On OKX, the ratio is 1.2x, compared to the two-week average of 2.2x.

Part of Ethereum’s recent underperformance can be attributed to increased competition. However, Ethereum’s monetary policy and ongoing scalability disputes are also to blame.

Over the past 30 days, Ethereum’s supply has grown at an annualized rate of 0.5%. This trend reflects low demand for the blockchain space and is driven by the adoption of layer 2 scaling solutions.

The Ethereum Foundation has come under intense criticism for its limited involvement in several key ecosystem projects. Some long-time developers have publicly expressed their dissatisfaction, prompting Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin to assert sole authority over the Ethereum Foundation on Jan. 21.

On the positive side, inflows into spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and recent ETH purchases by World Liberty Financial suggest that buyers remain interested. Since January 30, U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have seen net inflows of $487 million, a complete reversal of the $147 million net outflows seen in the previous four trading days.

According to Arkham Intelligence, World Liberty Financial, a tokenized digital asset project backed by the Trump family, acquired another $10 million worth of Ethereum on January 31. As of February 5, the company's holdings reached 66,239 ETH, worth $182 million, its largest holding, surpassing Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) and other altcoins.

Ethereum derivatives premium drops to 7% after leverage demand falls

To determine whether whales and market makers are bearish on Ethereum, analysts should look at the ETF monthly futures market. These contracts typically trade at a 5% to 10% premium to the spot market to compensate for the longer settlement period.

Ethereum 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

Ethereum derivatives markets reinforced this sentiment, with premiums falling to 7% from 10% on February 2. Although still in neutral territory, there was less demand for leveraged long positions from professional traders. More notably, even during the February 3 crash, the ETH futures premium remained above the 5% threshold for a bear market.

There is no clear evidence in the ETH derivatives market that whales have turned bearish or given up hope for further bullish momentum. Meanwhile, increased competition from Solana and Hyperliquid has led investors to reassess Ether's upside potential. Investors also seem reluctant to increase bullish positions ahead of the upcoming "Pectra" upgrade as its direct benefits to ordinary users remain uncertain.

Ultimately, given Ethereum’s leading position in total value locked (TVL) and growing institutional demand, the current price of $2,800 appears to offer a reasonable entry point. Reclaiming the $3,400 level depends on clearer interest from ETH stakers and long-term investors.