How long will Bitcoin price consolidation last?

Since first breaking through the $90,000 mark on November 19, the price of Bitcoin has been consolidating between $91,500 and $106,500.

But according to several technical and on-chain indicators, Bitcoin’s consolidation may be nearing its end. The key question remaining is when Bitcoin will break out of consolidation.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin price trend: Currently sideways

Bitcoin may continue to consolidate in its current range for a while, one cryptocurrency analyst said, especially after U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats triggered massive cryptocurrency liquidations and stoked trade war concerns.

In a Feb. 5 analysis for X, Rekt Capital said that despite Bitcoin’s retest of $101,000 on Feb. 3, BTC failed to convert the daily close “into new support.” He added:

“BTC may consolidate between $98,300 and $101,000 for the time being.”

BTC/USD daily candlestick chart. Source: Rekt Capital

For independent analyst Arjantit, Bitcoin’s current consolidation cycle could last until the end of February.

Arjantit said:

• Bitcoin price is consolidating after a 15-week rally (+105%).

• As long as BTC/USD remains above $90,000, its daily structure will remain strong.

• However, a drop below $90,000 could be a “buying opportunity”.

• The consolidation cycle may end by the end of February, after which BTC will rebound to $120,000.

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Artjantit

BTC demand has not peaked yet

As BTC prices break through the $100,000 mark, many market participants expect investor exposure to Bitcoin to increase. However, data shows that new demand remains “significantly lower” than demand at the peak of previous cycles.

Glassnode describes the current BTC price trend as an “atypical market cycle,” with its latest Week On Chain report stating:

• At its all-time high in 2017, new demand for Bitcoin was 26%, and at the peak of the bull cycle in 2021 it was 32%.

• At its current all-time high of $109,000, new demand is 23%.

Glassnode added:

[T]he new demand for BTC is coming primarily from large entities, not small retail entities.

Bitcoin's realized HODL ratio. Source: Glassnode

Therefore, it may be necessary for small businesses to continue to provide new demand to end the current consolidation period.

Meanwhile, Google Trends also shows that social interest has declined compared to previous cycles:

Bitcoin searches have yet to reach the levels seen during the 2021 bull run.

Bitcoin interest over time. Source: Google Trends

Once investor interest picks up again, Bitcoin could break out of the consolidation phase.

Bitcoin Price Breakout Coming Soon – Bollinger Bands

The Bitcoin volatility indicator suggests that consolidation in Bitcoin price is a precursor to a major breakout.

Key points:

• The tightening conditions of the Bollinger Bands suggest that a breakout could be very close.

• The daily Bollinger Band width is extremely oversold, touching the lower green line.

• The width of the Bollinger Bands is currently narrower than it was in November 2024 when the Bitcoin price was $68,000.

• BTC/USD subsequently rose 46% from $67,300 on November 5 to $99,317 on November 22.

• The indicator was also this tight in June 2024 and January 2024, after BTC prices rose by 31% and 19%, respectively.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

• If history repeats itself, Bitcoin price will break out of its current range in the coming days or weeks.