There is no skyrocketing price of the coin, no death spiral of miners, does this count as a halving of BCH?

At 8:19 pm on April 8, after AntPooL mined the latest block, the long-awaited BCH production was finally halved as expected, with BCH mining output falling from 12.5 to 6.25.

According to the official website of Biyin, after the halving, the revenue per T of computing power is 0.89 yuan for BTC, 0.92 yuan for BSV, and 0.46 yuan for BCH. The revenue is halved.

It is expected that BSV will complete the halving on April 10. The climax of the halving drama belongs to BTC, which is expected to be May 14 according to the time when the block is generated. Similarly, the mining output of both will drop from 12.5 to 6.25.

Will halving bring about a bull market? This topic finally has an answer. But unfortunately, this answer may not satisfy anyone.

The topic of halving has been discussed a lot, so I will not repeat it here. Here are a few small points of knowledge that you may not know yet.

1. BCH halving, no blocks for 2 hours, is it a crash?

According to the BTC.com website, after the AntPooL mining pool mined the first block with halving reward, no more blocks were produced for 120 minutes. This made many people wonder, is BCH crashing? Isn't it 10 minutes to produce a block?

Of course not. In fact, as the halving is completed, the revenue decreases, and part of the BCH computing power flees. This will cause the network difficulty to be too high and the computing power to be too low, thus affecting the block generation. In the BTC network, this adjustment process takes 14 days. But in the BCH network, because the DAA difficulty adjustment algorithm has been updated, this process has been accelerated.

Simply put, after the computing power drops sharply, the interval between blocks will lengthen. At this time, the network will simultaneously reduce the difficulty, thereby adjusting the block time to about 10 minutes again. It can be said that DAA will only have a short-term impact on the block speed even if the computing power of BCH drops by 50% instantly.

According to Jiang Zhuoer, founder of BTC.top, the long period of time without blocks is because the BCH network is mining slowly to reduce the difficulty. Liu Changyong, the founder of Zhimi University and a well-known BCH community figure, estimated that the block time may be more than 2 hours. "Don't worry, I have seen 5 hours." He said.

2. Why are the halving times of the three currencies different?

BTC, BCH, and BSV are from the same lineage, and all three are halved every 210,000 blocks, with an average block time of 10 minutes. The halving time is different because the halving is not calculated based on time, but on the block interval.

On the contrary, the difficulty adjustment algorithm cannot guarantee that a block will be produced in 10 minutes. It is normal for the network to produce no block in 30 minutes. This difference is magnified over time, resulting in time asynchrony.

But why did BCH and BSV lag behind Bitcoin for so long? This is related to the situation when BTC forked out BCH in 2017.

BTC’s difficulty adjustment algorithm stipulates that it is adjusted every 2016 blocks, or 14 days. BCH was just born, and its computing power is very small. If it still inherits BTC’s difficulty adjustment algorithm, the difficulty is high and the computing power is low. It will take three months for the next difficulty adjustment, and its block time will exceed 100 minutes. Who will come to mine? BCH will be out of business as soon as it is born.

Therefore, the EDA algorithm, which can quickly adjust the difficulty, became a firefighter. Interestingly, it accelerated the block production speed of BCH. As a result, its coin production speed was too fast, and it even produced about 123,000 tokens ahead of BTC. Therefore, EDA was updated to the above DAA algorithm, which stabilized the BCH block production at about 144 blocks per day.

3. Where will the BCH hashrate go? Will a 51% attack happen?

This topic is very hot, but it is difficult to judge simply. In short, where the computing power goes is where the mining income is higher, and the income is related to the computing power and the price of the currency.

If we look at the single T computing power income of the three chains now, we can find that BTC's income per T is 0.89 yuan, BSV's is 0.92 yuan, and BCH's is 0.46 yuan. The income has been halved.

Logically, if the price of the currency does not fluctuate greatly, half of BCH's computing power will be transferred to BSV or BTC in a short period of time. However, it must be understood that BCH and BSV only account for about 3% and 2% of BTC's computing power, so the change in BCH's computing power has very little impact on Bitcoin.

There is an interesting point of view, will BCH become vulnerable to attack due to the escape of computing power and enter a death spiral?

This will not happen. First, as the difficulty is adjusted, the revenue per ton of BCH mining will return to a level similar to that of BSV and BTC. In other words, mining is always a dynamic balance process. As long as the value of the coin is there, the computing power will be there.

Is it possible for BCH to be attacked by 51%? Actually, this is unlikely. As we all know, the top four mining pools of BCH are AntPool, BTC.TOP, ViaBTC and BTC.com. These four mining pools account for more than 70% of the computing power of the entire network. These four mining pools either directly belong to Bitmain or stand on the side of Bitmain. Therefore, they have no motivation to attack BCH. Judging from the current development of the industry, even if the computing power of BCH is relatively small, practitioners are unlikely to mobilize computing power to attack BCH.

But is it possible that invisible owners of computing power profit by attacking and shorting BCH? Yes, it is possible, but it is likely to come from players outside the mining industry, or at least it is unlikely that an attack will occur overtly.

However, it is undeniable that the above four major mining pools are also the top computing power of the BTC network. Therefore, when necessary, these computing powers may flow into the BCH network to deal with computing power attacks.

Will this lead to the centralization of computing power?

This is not a matter of whether it will happen, but it has already happened. However, in the blockchain world, sometimes this is not so important. Think about it, who is always talking about the centralization of POS?