7 charts to understand Bitcoin's price action after its first two halvings

With less than 5 days to go until the Bitcoin halving, the first-ever cryptocurrency is perfectly “mimicking” the price action of its previous cycle, according to historical data.

Here are some interesting facts about Bitcoin’s price action ahead of its past two halvings.

Looking back at the past two Bitcoin halving cycles

We know that markets are cyclical and that history often repeats itself. Of course, some analysts also often warn that past performance is no guarantee of future results.

When it comes to the scheduled halving of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, with two halving events already happening so far, everyone is curious about what will happen in the third one and whether there will be another sell-off.

The Bitcoin halving story is the most bullish thing happening in the cryptocurrency market, but these stories are also often used as hype for news events.

To get a clearer idea of ​​what to expect if history repeats itself, and whether the Bitcoin halving will lead to the next bull run due to a dramatic shift in supply and demand.

Looking at past data, during the first halving cycle, one week after the halving, the price of Bitcoin fell 63% from the previous peak, but it was also 485% higher than the lowest level at the time.

During the second cycle, a one-week period, BTC traded 45% lower than its 2013 high and 300% higher than its low.

This time around, Bitcoin is trading right between the two previous highs, a 54% drop from the price high, while the past week’s price action shows Bitcoin is well in line with the average of the past two halving cycles.

The data at the bottom is slightly different, but this is probably due to diminishing returns with each cycle.

On average, Bitcoin has gained more than 324% from its bottom from the halving to its trading level a week later, and is currently up 189% from its bear market bottom of $3,200.

Bitcoin price rises 6,000% on average after halving

Now that we have an idea of ​​whether or not the Bitcoin price has followed past cycles, what can we expect if a similar surge occurs after the halving event?

After the first cycle, the Bitcoin price was up 9,378% from the low it was trading at just one week later. In the second cycle, there was a slight retracement after the halving, but ultimately, the Bitcoin price was up 2,872% from the price it was trading at in the time period after the last halving, reaching a new peak of $20,000.

On average, this means that Bitcoin has risen by more than 6,000% after the halving.

Bitcoin’s next halving is just around the corner, and if it has a slightly similar impact, the gains in price could be astronomical. Since the average drop after a halving is only 27%, the risk of Bitcoin at this point could be far less than the gains, assuming the “story repeats itself.”

The original article comes from bitcoinist and was translated by the BluemountainLabs team. The English copyright belongs to the original author. Please contact the translator for Chinese reprint.