The calm before the storm? 5 Bitcoin price factors to watch this week

Bitcoin (BTC) is starting a new week of trading at a familiar price point below $10,000, will it continue to hold this level or will volatility set in?
Cointelegraph Markets’ weekly newsletter offers five factors that could influence Bitcoin’s price performance in the coming days.
Stocks rebound from coronavirus fears The start of this week was a stark contrast to last Monday, when fears of the coronavirus faded and with it the volatility in the stock market.
The overall picture for equity futures remains uncertain but more stable than it was seven days ago.
This allowed Bitcoin to avoid sudden volatility over the weekend and continue to fluctuate within a limited range between $9,200 and $9,500.
$9,500 has been the focus of BTC/USD for a few weeks now, with the resistance above proving difficult to overcome.
Cointelegraph noted in our previous newsletter that despite signs that Bitcoin has “decoupled” from macro markets since March, the broad correlation remains. The research further found that historically, BTC/USD has been highly correlated with the S&P 500.

Bitcoin vs. S&P 500 3-month chart. Source: Skew

Another difference between Bitcoin difficulty and stable computing power lies in the fundamentals of Bitcoin's network.
Last week, miners were preparing for the largest upward difficulty adjustment in two and a half years. Things have been much calmer this time around, with the next adjustment in nine days currently set at 5.6%.

Bitcoin 7-day average difficulty 2-month chart Source: Blockchain

Likewise, Bitcoin’s mining hashrate has leveled off in recent days, remaining at an average of 105 EH/s after adjusting to 111 EH/s.
Data shows that since May’s block reward halving, more computing power has been added to the Bitcoin network than at any time since the start of the bull run in 2017.
A large number of BTC options are about to expire <br />This Friday is a critical moment for Bitcoin derivatives. According to Cointelegraph, nearly $1 billion in options will expire on June 26.
Such events tend to immediately affect Bitcoin price sentiment. This time, the mainstream sentiment seems bullish, with the majority of options being “call” options and prices concentrated around the $10,000 mark.
Meanwhile, volume in the Bitcoin futures market has barely trended upward in recent days, while open interest has similarly stagnated.
Due to the lack of volatility in Bitcoin prices, futures avoid “gaps” over the weekend, and if the market opens somewhere different from where it closed on Friday, BTC/USD tends to rise or fall to “fill” the gap.

Bitcoin futures 3-day chart shows no gaps. Source: TradingView

Exchange reserves resume downward trend The amount of Bitcoin in exchanges, which surged after the halving, has now returned to a downward trend.
According to on-chain monitoring resource CryptoQuant, exchange reserves are now back to nearly two-year lows.
Traders are pulling funds out of exchanges, indicating they want to hold short-term rather than be ready to sell in case of volatility.
As of June 21, exchange wallets held 2.35 million Bitcoin. In comparison, on March 13, when BTC/USD fell to $3,600, exchange reserves hit a new high of 2.73 million Bitcoin.

1-year chart of exchange Bitcoin reserves Source: CQ.Live

Neither fear nor interest?
On the topic of traders, it seems that even their sentiment is showing signs of a U-turn - from bearish to neutral or better.
According to the latest reading of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, trader sentiment is showing signs of rebounding after flashing “fear” over the past week.
It is a chart that ranges from 0 to 100 and the index takes into account multiple factors to determine whether traders are bullish or bearish.
Monday’s reading was 38/100, 1 higher than it was over the weekend. Since the Bitcoin halving, the most bullish score on the index has been 56, while the lowest score has been 37.

3-month global interest in searching for “Bitcoin” Source: Google Trends

Meanwhile, data from Google Trends shows that overall interest in Bitcoin is currently at its lowest level since the March crash. This phenomenon was already evident at the end of last month as the halving gradually faded from the public spotlight. (Cointelegraph Chinese)