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Filecoin has “stood up” again. On July 15, Filecoin officially announced that although many issues have been improved in the past few weeks, the community called for experiments on mining plans and competition conditions, so a two-week calibration period was added, and the mainnet launch window was updated to August 31-September 21. A few days ago, the Filecoin incentive testnet may be postponed for a week or two, and the final launch time has not yet been determined. The mainnet, which was supposed to be launched in 2018, was delayed until June 2019 and has been repeatedly delayed since then. "Filecoin is an expert in expectation management, constantly raising everyone's expectations of it." An investor joked in the community. But for those who are still waiting to enter the market, it has increased the time to study mining machines and computing power service providers and make decisions. "Everyone is afraid of missing the first wealth train after the mainnet is launched." Big guys are calling orders online, and big and small miners are on the scene With the support of IPFS, Filecoin has become the "top stream" in the cryptocurrency circle this summer. Especially with the fancy "calls" from big names such as Du Jun, Bao Erye, and Wang Feng, the FOMO sentiment has further fermented, and a large amount of capital has poured into the Filecoin track. The main network has not yet been launched, but the market has already set off a crazy "gold rush". Mining machines are sold round after round, and futures are also hyped up in the secondary market. The year-to-date increase is as high as 407.81%. The industry can be said to be a busy scene. Half is fire, half is seawater. In sharp contrast to the heated discussion in China is the deserted scene overseas. When the discussion is high, overseas is deserted. Whether it is social media attention or Google search volume, China is far higher than other countries. Even from the perspective of the nodes participating in the second phase of the test network, nearly 80% of the miners are located in China. At the same time, the four "calling orders" kings, Fenbushi Capital, Du Jun, Bao Erye and Wang Feng, have become the main driving force behind the popularity of Filecoin in China. In addition to online calls, their media have also promoted Filecoin. For example, Fenbushi Capital, which claims to focus on the IPFS ecosystem this year, is an early investor in Filecoin. They also invested in mining solution provider 1475 this year. The 1000T Filecoin computing power originally intended to be sold for 10 days sold out in 12 hours by Mars Cloud Mine under Wang Feng, which was very popular. In addition, the mining summit in Chengdu in May this year successfully attracted many Bitcoin miners to join Filecoin. Currently, there are two main ways for investors to participate in Filecoin: mining and purchasing exchange futures. Among them, mining machines are the most direct way for ordinary investors to participate, and it is also a tempting way. "Today a customer directly bought a mining machine worth 6 million US dollars." The sales manager of a Filecoin mining pool told PANews that the market lacks good investment targets this year, and hot money is pouring into Filecoin. Large investors are pouring in, and small investors are not stingy either. PANews added several mining machine sales WeChat accounts, and they all posted their orders on WeChat, 10,000, 20,000... Small miners are entering the market one after another. According to the Filecoin distribution system, 70% will be allocated to future miners. Although the distribution pattern will decrease every week and be released in half every 6 years, 1.4 billion tokens is still a number with great potential for miners or mining pools. In terms of mining, Filecoin is much more complex than Bitcoin. "Filecoin's design is not friendly to ordinary people's participation in mining. Electricity, network, operation and maintenance are all obstacles to mining at home, and they are difficult to solve. Filecoin's mechanism design requires miners to keep their storage data online at all times. Otherwise, if they are checked but cannot provide the corresponding data, they will be punished by the system. Whether the mining machine is temporarily out of power, the network is not smooth, or there are other software and hardware problems, the result is the same. Therefore, in addition to software and hardware optimization, Filecoin mining machine manufacturers have already provided IDC computer rooms, hosting, and operation and maintenance services as standard." "Coin Circle Li Bai", a core developer of Shiliu Mining Pool, told PANews. Mining or digging a hole? What is the correct way to participate? The current mining machine market is like a black box, hiding many secrets and darkness. Since Filecoin has not yet announced its specific algorithm, the threshold for imitating IPFS mining machines is extremely low, and various scams in the name of pre-sale, pre-mining, and dual mining continue to occur. Among them, dual mining is one of the classic scams of Filecoin mining machines. In 2018, the Snail Interstellar mining machine claimed to be able to dual mine CAI and Filecoin, and attracted 2 billion in 5 months, but in the end the machine became scrap metal, and the number of victims reached more than 7,000. In addition to various scams, the various Filecoin mining machines on the market are constantly stepping on pitfalls. The mining capacity of many physical mining machines is insufficient, and some mining machines are even inferior and cannot mine tokens at all. Even for suitable mining machines, problems such as power outages, network failures, and software iterations are invisible barriers for ordinary investors. In order to ensure that storage nodes provide high-quality services to users, the reward and punishment mechanism mentioned above is also a threshold. In fact, it is difficult for most ordinary investors to ensure the long-term stability of their storage devices because accidents such as network disconnection and power outages are completely out of control, and equipment failures, network changes, etc. have certain technical requirements for investors. In addition, single mining machines that cost hundreds of thousands to hundreds of thousands of yuan are also a great pressure for investors, not to mention that the return on hardware investment and FIL mortgage investment is also an unknown. With the deep water of demand in front and the surge of technology behind, "big fish and small fish" are beginning to stir. "Joint mining, lower the threshold for participation, and everyone can mine." Compared with professional mining, which is a high threshold and long work, many people are attracted by the low entry threshold and flexibility of cloud computing power, especially investors with small funds and low risk appetite. In their view, in addition to not having to worry about power outages and hardware failures, they also don't have to bear the risk of mining machine performance degradation due to Filecoin parameter changes before the main network goes online. As a result, cloud computing mining quickly became popular, and various product marketing methods were varied, but is it really reliable? PANews found out that the price cloud computing service providers get from mining pools is about 700 yuan per ton, and the price they sell to users is about 1,200-1,500 yuan. Unlike buying mining machines, most cloud computing products are for one year and need to be renewed after expiration, and investors do not own the mining machines. The transparency of cloud computing products deserves attention. In this regard, "Li Bai in the Coin Circle" believes that "cloud computing power is an alternative to investing in a whole machine, with a low threshold for participation, but the corresponding cost is high. In fact, the business model of cloud computing power will inevitably lead to higher unit costs than first-line miners. In this case, participants are required to have their own estimates and judgments on the quality of the project and the competition after going online. In addition, since the way Filecoin calculates revenue is different from common mining, you can pay more attention to the calculation and distribution of revenue when investing. If ordinary people do not have the corresponding resources, it is best to leave professional matters to professionals, do their own research, invest in mining machines and entrust them to reliable mining pools, or purchase cloud computing power, which may be more reliable than mining by themselves." "Precisely because the mainnet has not yet been launched, there is room for the hidden costs of cloud computing services to float upward, which transfers the risk to the service providers. Of course, the large number of cloud computing service providers that suddenly appeared are of varying quality." Joss, head of user growth at IPFS Force Zone, told PANews. At the same time, "Li Bai in the Coin Circle" also reminded that Filecoin officials have repeatedly reminded the community to carefully purchase hardware before the mainnet parameter design is finalized. Although it may only be one or two months away from the mainnet launch, and the hardware configuration is basically finalized, when purchasing related products, you should still examine the manufacturer's technical strength and delivery capabilities, and don't blindly believe in all kinds of high efficiency and high return rates that come out of thin air. Filecoin's hardware is relatively transparent, and you can refer to the official test configuration. The software optimization efficiency can be referenced by the storage accumulation and growth rate of the test network. With a three-month increase of over 400%, are FIL futures reliable? Marx wrote in Capital that once there is a proper profit, capital becomes bold. If there is a 10% profit, it is guaranteed to be used everywhere; with a 20% profit, it becomes active; with a 50% profit, it takes risks; for 100% profit, it dares to trample on all human laws; with a 300% profit, it dares to commit any crime, even at the risk of being hanged. After three years of technological iteration, everyone is looking forward to this super project. For many investors who want to buy Filecoin but don't want to buy it at a high price after the mainnet is launched, FIL futures are a good choice. According to Feixiaohao, the current price of FIL futures is $18.56, an increase of 407.81% in the past three months, while Bitcoin's three-month increase is only 29.11%. With high returns, FIL futures have naturally attracted the attention and popularity of the outside world, and many exchanges have launched them online. According to Feixiaohao data, dozens of exchanges have launched FIL futures, such as Gate.io and BiKi. So, what is FIL futures all about? When investors successfully participate in Filecoin crowdfunding on CoinList, they will receive a SAFT agreement, which will specify the amount invested by the investor, the number and price of tokens purchased, the time and rules for the release of Filecoin, and the refund mechanism if the project cannot be launched normally. It can be simply understood that this is a legally protected commitment. Then, some investors trade this agreement in the form of futures on the exchange. According to PANews, there are currently three main types of futures on exchanges. One is that the exchange itself has participated in ICO, and the futures are the quotas in its hands; the second is the quotas that traders purchase from other ICO investors; the third is a completely blank check, and after Filecoin goes online and is mined, it will directly purchase tokens from the mining pool. This involves two issues, redemption risk and time risk. First, according to the agreement, if Filecoin cannot be successfully launched before 2022, investors can get a refund from the project party. Even if the other party can come up with a SAFT agreement, investors will have to bear certain time risks. Secondly, if the other party fails to provide a SAFT agreement or is unwilling to redeem the futures that have been transferred, then the investor's money will be wasted. "Li Bai in the Coin Circle" also emphasized in the interview that FIL futures are not officially supported and are products launched by the exchange itself. In fact, Filecoin officials have stated that Filecoin tokens will only take effect after the mainnet is launched, and any exchange that now lists Filecoin tokens or IPFS tokens may be fraudulent. At the same time, they strongly recommend staying away from any exchange or entity that claims to buy, sell or trade Filecoin or IPFS SAFTS, tokens or derivatives. FIL futures are indeed tricky as they are neither officially recognized nor can they be withdrawn to personal wallet addresses. In addition, with the precedent of the termination of the TON project, many people are also worried about whether Filecoin will follow suit? In fact, TON itself is not compliant, while Filecoin's ICO strictly abides by the SEC and FCA securities laws, only allowing qualified investors to subscribe, and subscribing through SAFT and issuance memorandum. Even Coinbase and Gemini Exchange have "supported" it, which is enough to show the compliance of Filecoin. However, after the launch of the Filecoin mainnet, the pressure on the tokens and the circulation volume also brought a series of uncertainties. "Since the economic model of Filecoin cannot be implemented, it does bring a lot of uncertainty, because we don't know how its mortgage will be, what coefficient it will be, and we can't even make a model. At present, the entire token logic of Filecoin is a self-financial model. Through the issuance of tokens, miners sell the coins and invest in the network. Miners definitely hope that the price of the coin is high. Only when the price is pushed up will people enter the market, and the mining machines will be easy to sell. They can increase their value and the technology can progress, so miners will pledge tokens." Zhang Rihe, CEO of Xianhe System, told PANews. Will regulation become a roadblock? Investors need to act within their means As a decentralized storage provider, Filecoin can split files into many copies and store them anonymously on different computers around the world, eliminating the need to trust a company's database. It is precisely this story of "distributed storage" and "no one can delete" that has attracted eight of the world's top venture capital firms, including Sequoia Capital and Y Combinator, to become its mentors. But at the same time, it also brings regulatory concerns. Will IPFS/Filecoin be regulated because of data anonymity and data sensitivity? Not long ago, a netizen asked Filecoin officials, "How does the Filecoin network handle content deletion requests? (For example, child pornography) If I am a storage provider, what is my responsibility here?" The official response stated that Filecoin is a protocol that helps coordinate file storage between decentralized storage providers and client networks. The network cannot delete files on participants' computers. However, they are developing a powerful set of tools to help users control the type of data they are willing to store and serve from their own machines. In this regard, Joss believes that the problem is caused by people. We often hear the phrase "technology is innocent". Regarding the supervision of sensitive data, we can start from the service layer, from the entry point for uploading and the exit point for dissemination. "Li Bai in the Coin Circle" said that regulation is an unavoidable topic in blockchain, and the decentralized storage field has its own unique challenges. At present, due to the immaturity of this part of the technology and the small scope of application, it is not regulated for the time being, but decentralization does not mean ignoring morality and law. For Filecoin, although "no one can delete", the storage and retrieval market, as the entrance and exit of storage, is more susceptible to regulation. Now many teams are developing technologies that do not disclose user privacy and meet regulatory requirements. I believe that there will be technical solutions to solve these problems in the end. In addition to regulatory issues, the high valuation and popularity of Filecoin have also led many people to believe that it will become the biggest bubble of the year. In fact, from the incomplete white paper when it was released to the development network and then to the test network, Filecoin has undergone several revisions and compromises. At present, Filecoin is still in its early stages, and everyone is scrambling to stake out a niche, but the market's enthusiasm has long surpassed the progress of project development. "After a two-year delay, the launch of Filecoin coincided with a 'window period' when there were not many hot spots in the industry, which boosted its popularity. However, this popularity was brought by practitioners to a certain extent. Participants need to have their own ability to distinguish various products on the market. Decentralized storage is an indispensable part of Web3 and various decentralized applications. In the long run, it has its unique market demand and value, but short-term investment returns are greatly affected by market fluctuations. Investors need to act according to their own risk tolerance." "Li Bai in the Coin Circle" said. In addition, Xu Kun, Chief Strategy Officer of OKEx, said in an interview that for traders, they need to always grasp the risk exposure and how big the opportunity is. When the opportunity is big, you should rush forward; when the risk-return is not proportional, you should withdraw in time. The long-term development of Filecoin is mainly determined by whether its underlying layer can continue to advance. If it cannot continue, it will eventually come to an end one day. Perhaps, only when the mainnet is actually launched, will Filecoin reveal its true beauty. IPFS/Filecoin Yesterday and Today Distributed storage networks have a long history. In 1989, Tim Berners-Lee, the founder of the World Wide Web, published a paper titled "Information Management: A Proposal", proposing the idea of building a hyperlinked document system on the Internet. It was this idea that lit up a new world for us - HTTP was born, and laid the foundation for the rapid development and prosperity of the Internet. However, with the rise of various new models, the traditional HTTP protocol has been unable to meet the needs of the growing variety of applications due to server centralization, high vulnerability to attacks, high data storage costs, large-scale data transmission and maintenance difficulties. For example, when hundreds of millions of traffic poured in during the "Double 11" shopping festival, we often encountered website crashes. At this time, distributed storage networks emerged. For example, BitTorrent (Note: later acquired by TRON and renamed BTT), Kazza and Napster were all well-known distributed storage network projects at the time, and they still have hundreds of millions of active users. Among them, BitTorrent is the earliest decentralized storage project and the prototype of all decentralized storage models. Since its launch in 2001, the BitTorrent protocol has completely changed the content and file sharing field and defined the standard for peer-to-peer file transfer, but due to its poor scalability, BitTorrent has gradually been marginalized. In May 2014, Juan Benet, who graduated from Stanford University, founded the Protocol Lab and proposed the concept of IPFS (InterPlanetary File System). This peer-to-peer (P2P) distributed file system is intended to replace the current Internet's Hypertext Transfer Protocol (HTTP). To a certain extent, IPFS draws on the characteristics of the BitTorrent network, such as penalty measures and file availability checks, but IPFS is even better. "The emergence of IPFS inherits the advantages of BT, but better handles the issue of data ownership. The pain points of security and ownership confirmation are the revolutionary significance that IPFS, a digital technology, has brought to the Internet. Combined with Filecoin, it can ultimately expand the boundaries of this ecosystem endlessly." Joss told PANews. Filecoin is an incentive layer running on the IPFS system, used to reward Filecoin miners for their mining actions or to pay for transactions in the IPFS network. Although IPFS and Filecoin are actually two different systems, they are more complementary and are both developed and maintained by Protocol Labs. In August 2017, Filecoin, the token of IPFS's public chain, successfully raised more than $250 million through crowdfunding. Only 10% of the tokens were sold this time, which means that IPFS's market value has reached $2.5 billion before it is officially launched. According to its white paper, the total amount of Filecoin is 2 billion, of which 70% is reserved for miners to mine, which means that miners can mine up to 1.4 billion coins, which is equivalent to $17.22 billion at the current price of $12.3 per coin. However, the much-anticipated mainnet of this project has been repeatedly postponed, consuming the patience and confidence of many community enthusiasts and investors. According to the IPFS project roadmap, its mainnet should have been launched in 2018, but after being postponed to June 2019, it was postponed again. Currently, Filecoin has launched the second phase of the testnet and released a reward plan, where miners around the world can compete for global and regional rewards totaling 4 million Filecoin tokens. Talking about the current technical challenges of Filecoin, Zhang Rihe told PANews, "Compared with the first phase of the Filecoin test network, the second phase after the restart is very different - the expansion coefficient of the replication proof has reached the minimum value of the project described in the replication proof paper, which is a huge improvement. But the core replication proof is the biggest problem facing Filecoin in the future. At present, its replication proof can only do cold storage, not warm storage. Cold storage is slow to write and read. For example, if you use a general machine to write, it takes at least two and a half hours, and it takes two hours to read it out. A slow machine takes five or six hours to write, and four hours to read it out, while warm storage responds in milliseconds. So the most important thing for Filecoin at present is to solve the warm storage problem."
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