Bitcoin holdings weekly report: large institutions regain bearish thinking and the rebound may only be short-lived

The latest CFTC CME Bitcoin weekly position report (April 13 - April 19) released on April 23 shows that the total open interest of Bitcoin standard contracts ended the previous two weeks of decline, rebounding from 10632 to 11276. Bitcoin's weak posture in the past period of time has also changed during the statistical period. The price of Bitcoin did not fall further during the week, but rebounded by more than $1,000. Will the mainstream market sentiment change as a result? What choices will the large institutions that accurately "predicted" this round of rebound in the previous statistical period make? These are the key points of this weekly report.

The largest dealer account's long position decreased from 406 to 377, and its short position decreased from 1127 to 1124. In the latest statistical period, dealer accounts reduced their long and short positions simultaneously, with the reduction of long positions significantly larger. After making "contrarian" long positions in the previous statistical period and accurately judging the market's stage turning point, these accounts did not continue to increase their positions in the latest statistical period, but instead made a relatively clear reduction of long positions when the market had rebounded. It can be seen that these accounts are not optimistic about the prospect of further market increases. In this environment, although large institutions did not conduct net air conditioning, they have actually expressed a relatively clear bearish attitude, and institutions are not optimistic about the prospect of further market increases.

The long position of asset management institutions increased from 6110 to 6214, and the short position decreased from 807 to 570. Asset management institutions made a net long position adjustment in the latest statistical period, and the idea of ​​net short position adjustment in the previous two consecutive statistical periods was abandoned. However, combined with the market performance, the adjustment logic of asset management institutions seems to have returned to the previous "delayed reaction" situation, and this net long position adjustment has a weak direction for the future market.

The leveraged fund long position decreased from 1374 to 1194, and the short position decreased from 6654 to 6226. The leveraged fund continued to reduce its long and short positions in the latest statistical period, and the bearish attitude of this type of account continued in recent times. Compared with the above two types of institutional accounts that are "wavering", the leveraged fund has become a more determined type of account in recent times, and its pessimistic attitude towards the future market has not changed significantly due to price fluctuations.

The long position of large accounts rose from 656 to 833, rebounding from a low of more than two years, and the short position rebounded from 230 to 1067. In the latest statistical period, large accounts increased their long and short positions simultaneously. The overall position that had just turned into a net long position in the previous statistical period reversed again and returned to a net short position. Large accounts re-expressed their preference for short positions in the latest statistical period, which was contrary to the rebound performance of the market in the latest statistical period. This choice can be regarded as a reflection of the idea that the dealer accounts are not optimistic about the prospect of further rebound in the future market.

Retail investors' long positions increased from 1058 to 1155, and short positions remained unchanged at 786. Retail investors made net long adjustments during the latest statistical period, increasing their long positions in a market rebound. There was nothing unexpected about the retail investors' choices, and there was no forward-looking information worth interpreting.

Total open interest in Bitcoin micro contracts fell from 21,609 to 20,968.

The long positions of dealer accounts decreased from 2001 to 1804, and the short positions increased from 803 to 1225. The dealer accounts made clear net cold adjustment in micro contracts. This idea is consistent with the choice of such accounts in standard contracts, further consolidating the short-term bearish attitude of large institutions towards the market.

The holdings of asset management institutions are limited and do not change much, so as per convention we will not expand them.

The leveraged fund's long position increased from 6584 to 7846, and the short position decreased from 17947 to 17320. The leveraged fund made a net long position adjustment in the micro contract, which conflicts with the weak attitude expressed by the continuous two-way reduction of such accounts in the standard contract. However, considering that such accounts still have an absolute advantage in the proportion of short positions in micro contracts, the bullish attitude expressed by the micro contract position adjustment in the latest statistical period is questionable. It is not recommended to over-amplify the expression of this bullish attitude, and it can be paid attention to continuously.

The long positions of large investors decreased from 9054 to 7125, and the short positions decreased from 1187 to 983. The large investors' accounts reduced their long and short positions in the micro contracts simultaneously, and the long-short position ratio did not change much. Combined with the performance of the simultaneous increase in long and short positions of such accounts in the standard contracts, the reduction in micro contracts was most likely a risk hedging behavior, and there was no other clear unilateral directional information.

Retail investors' long positions increased from 3674 to 3850, and short positions decreased from 1252 to 1056, which is a net long adjustment consistent with the standard contract. It is not surprising that retail investors made such a choice in the context of a market rebound.