Is it really worthwhile to mine the first batch of Filecoin?

"Filecoin is the best project at the moment!" "Only by participating in the Filecoin first mine can you maximize your returns."

"Filecoin mainnet launch has been postponed again!" "Nowadays, people are terrified when talking about cloud computing power."

Looking through a few communities, there are two voices about Filecoin. One voice shouts "Filecoin will bring huge benefits", and the other voice is worried that "Filecoin has too many uncertainties". Some industry insiders remain neutral about Filecoin.

Based on different perspectives, everyone has their own understanding of Filecoin, just like when spring tea is on the market every year, there will be a heated discussion about whether to drink Mingqian tea or Minghou tea. The debate on whether to join Filecoin has caused quite a stir in the cryptocurrency circle.

Support entry into Filecoin

Andy, founder of the open source mining pool

The prospect of Filecoin is the stars and the sea

· Four reasons to be optimistic about Filecoin:

1. The central bank is releasing money, the traditional capital market cycle is superimposed on the Bitcoin cycle, and the crypto market is likely to be a bull market in 2021. 2020 is very similar to the eve of the bull market in 2016, and Filecoin is also very similar to Ethereum back then. There will be no new bull market without a new story. Filecoin is the project with the greatest hope of becoming the bull market flag bearer in this time window;

2. Filecoin is highly compliant. TON and EOS have both been punished by the SEC to varying degrees. Filecoin is the first large project to raise funds using the SAFT protocol. Filecoin will definitely be listed on Coinbase, and all first-tier exchanges will rush to list it at the same time. The shell of such a project alone is already very valuable.

3. Filecoin did not make any minor innovations that were merely patchwork, but instead portrayed a vision that is even more ambitious than blockchain. Looking at the cryptocurrency world, there is no big difference between 2020 and 2017, but Filecoin can really bring new hope and new blood.

Moreover, if blockchain is to be implemented, it cannot avoid the decentralization of storage. Filecoin is truly promising to decentralize the basic application of storage. Storage is the most basic and the most easily understood business logic by computers.

4. Market education is in place. No project has such innate and historical conditions to be expected by everyone for 3 years before listing on the exchange. Compared with Turing's complete world computer, the application of storage is more approachable and naturally more popular. In addition, the amount of FIL in circulation in the early stage is limited, and the demand for mortgage exists objectively. For a long time, even if there is no demand for storage, the supply will be less than the demand.

Understanding and prospects of Filecoin

In a nutshell, Filecoin is a star project with its own model. It will first become the infrastructure of blockchain, and secondly, it may become the new underlying infrastructure of the entire Internet. The current blockchain cannot store files, but only transaction hashes, which also limits the wider and deeper application of blockchain.

In the future, as the demand for storage and retrieval gradually increases, there will be more prosperous applications. It can be said that Filecoin is the "hope of the whole village". Before the decentralized storage is realized, 99% of the blockchain implementations are lies.

The future of Filecoin is full of stars and seas. In the future, many projects will imitate Filecoin, just as current projects are imitating Ethereum. Even if Filecoin may become a pioneer, some of the underlying innovations it brings, such as proof of replication and proof of space and time, will still make substantial contributions to the development of blockchain and open up new prospects for those who are determined to truly contribute to the industry.

Shawn Wang Qingshui, founder of 1475Fund

The advantages of mining early are more obvious

First, the probability of FIL block explosion is positively correlated with effective storage capacity, and effective storage capacity needs time to accumulate. Second, after the main network is launched, the effective storage capacity as the denominator continues to grow, and the effective storage capacity of a single machine as the numerator cannot exceed the growth rate of the entire network in the long run, and will be continuously diluted.

These two points determine that the first-mover mining not only has the first-mover advantage of time accumulation, but also the early bird advantage of having fewer mining machines and smaller total storage capacity.

It is even more beneficial for miners. The 4 million reward incentive network, which is mainly composed of 5PB large miners and covers six continents around the world, will have the best liquidity. If miners can participate in the incentive network, they may not have to spend extra money to buy coins as collateral when the main network goes online, which will also save a considerable amount of costs.

Kui Dong, cryptocurrency industry analyst

Filecoin has great market potential and popularity

Filecoin is a rare project that is spontaneously promoted by a large number of communities and miners. At the same time, a large number of non-investors have also entered this field. In the first half of this year, many crypto practitioners were betting on Ethereum 2.0, DeFi, CeFi lending, option contracts, etc., but in the end the market favored Filecoin, helping it become the biggest hot project this year.

Both the lower-tier markets and the so-called "elites" are more or less paying attention to/discussing the progress of this project, indicating that it currently has relatively large market potential and popularity.

Although the Filecoin testnet reward phase has been postponed again, this is actually a great opportunity. Retail investors can consider allocating 1-5% of their total assets in advance to access Filecoin's cloud computing power to make some anticipatory arrangements, or wait for the testnet ranking to come out and make choices based on the comprehensive capabilities of each business.

As Filecoin futures have been overpriced on some exchanges, it is no longer suitable to enter the market blindly from a trading logic point of view. This is mainly because there are always some uncertainties in the project before the mainnet is launched, and the value basis of the mainnet token futures mainly lies in the investors' expectations of the project in the future. Therefore, as a secondary investor who has just entered the market, you can decide whether to enter the market within a week after the mainnet is launched based on the data growth and stability.

Whether an industry has the potential for long-term growth depends first on whether relevant policies support it, and secondly on whether there will be a steady stream of newcomers entering the market. Currently, the policies regarding hardware mining are still somewhat clear. At least miners in some regions can conduct legal mining under local policy requirements, and relevant industrial parks can also build new Filecoin mines or transform existing Bitcoin and Ethereum mines.

In 2020, many newcomers have entered the sinking market, including some young people engaged in Filecoin-related work. Compared with 2019, the scope of those engaged in contract trading, cloud exchange services, fund investment, etc. is obviously much more concentrated, which helps to amplify the halo of unique projects and thus be recognized by people.

Lightnet CTO Miao Kai

Filecoin mining is a competition of capital

My opinion on Filecoin is this:

1. First of all, IPFS is a very innovative leading project that applies blockchain technology to the field of network storage, and it has received support from many institutions, which is a very good thing for the entire industry;

2. Filecoin, as the main token in the IPFS ecosystem, carries the experiment of decentralized economic models in the field of blockchain storage, and has the potential to make huge profits (smaller and more vertical cases in the DeFi field such as Compound have already made huge profits earlier this year);

3. Before the official website team started Filecoin, a lot of idle capital in society, including some capital in the market, had already begun to intervene in this ecosystem. New individual investors need to clearly distinguish the source and authenticity of the assets;

4. Since IPFS is a mining ecosystem, the establishment and development of all mining ecosystems requires a fairly long period of time, so investing in mining is a better choice than simply buying coins;

5. Because of too much capital and institutional attention, the layout of IPFS mining has actually become a capital-intensive task so far, which requires competing on capital costs and capital efficiency, so it is more likely for institutions to intervene rather than individuals.

Sun Ming, Partner of Distributed Capital

The most powerful thing about Filecoin is that it can "go beyond the circle"

The most amazing thing about Filecoin is that it has achieved "breaking the circle", that is, jumping out of the encrypted digital currency circle. Strictly speaking, Bitcoin has not yet entered the mainstream business world. Ethereum is close to simulating and reproducing a mainstream business world, but it has not yet completely "broken the circle", while Filecoin has completely embraced the real business world.

The concept of Filecoin is simple and easy to understand. Both traditional investors and people in the Crypto field can understand this emerging thing. In addition, Filecoin can properly balance the interests of all parties in the ecosystem, making it easy for all parties to reach a consensus.

As for how big Filecoin will grow in the future, it is still unknown. However, it is clear that the valuation model of Crypto is difficult to apply to Filecoin. Crypto's business model is speculative, which means that the above applications can have a high market valuation before they are fully implemented.

Filecoin is more suitable to be compared with traditional mainstream business models, such as Alibaba Cloud, Baidu Cloud, Qiniu Cloud and even Xunlei, etc. The overall industry value of this market is huge, and if Filecoin can get a certain proportion of the pie, it will reach a scale of tens of billions of US dollars.

IPFS Force Zone BP Wang Kexiang

The whole project is attractive enough from every angle

We are still optimistic about the Filecoin project. The vision proposed by IPFS and Filecoin projects has indeed solved many of the current data storage pain points, and the entire project is attractive enough from all angles. Many of the people who are pessimistic about the project in the market are those who had too high expectations for the project before, hoping that the technology and the project can be completed in one go, and their speculative nature is relatively high. However, the official perfectionist style and the delay in launching the main network have challenged their patience.

For teams or individuals who have been involved in ecosystem construction and technology research for a long time, the delay in Filecoin's progress will not cause too much trouble.

Kimmy, Head of KeyPool Brand

Filecoin mainnet delay is not a bad thing

1. The extension of the mainnet officially announced by Filecoin will cause certain pressure on miners in the short term, especially those who have invested heavily in the project in the early stage, and they are under pressure from equipment costs and sales.

2. However, from a long-term perspective, the postponement of Filecoin’s launch is still beneficial to the overall ecological construction, because it can give the official more time to fully conduct full-process testing and code optimization, and protect the rights and interests of miners. For example, recently hackers used the Crowcoin code loophole to cause an additional issuance of 300 million Crowcoins, and the losses were also borne by miners. In order to avoid similar situations, we think that Filecoin’s official caution is still necessary.

Zhao Yi, Chairman of Whale Exchange

Whale Exchange has unique competitive advantages

We have launched the Whale Exchange Filecoin cloud computing product with the lowest price on the entire network, a 3-year mining period and transparent filling time, 259 yuan/T/year, and actively participated in the test network rewards of 4 million FIL.

We do this because we cannot predict the future price of FIL, nor the total storage capacity of the entire network, but we can allow users to participate at the lowest cost and participate at the first time. Low cost can provide a safety cushion for investment, which also means a faster payback time. Moreover, Filecoin is a decentralized storage, and Whale Exchange is a decentralized exchange, and the two are of the same origin.

Neutral: Look at Filecoin rationally

Falco CEO and IPFS China evangelist Dapao Xie

Long-term bullish, short-term overheating

My opinion is that Filecoin is promising in the long run. At least the founder Juan Bennett has shown that through recent HackFs and other activities, as well as integrating Filecoin with the Ethereum development library, the team has a long-term vision. Since Filecoin occupies the leading position in distributed storage, its current popularity is still relatively stable. So I am optimistic about it in the long run.

But in the short term, everyone is a little too enthusiastic. There are still some deficiencies in the early stage of Filecoin code. I think everyone's high expectations will have some impact in the later stage. There is still a lot of room for optimization in the code, so don't be too idealistic.

Xu Kun, Chief Strategy Officer of OKEx

Think carefully before making a decision

There are many mining and cloud computing teams working on IPFS-related concepts. First of all, an objective fact is that the main network of filecoin has not yet been launched. Before it is launched, there will inevitably be some information asymmetry. Judging from the current situation of the test network, I think that each mining machine should at least meet the needs of test network mining, but everyone still needs to do due diligence, understand the information clearly, and be responsible for their investment.

Secondly, the overall liquidity of the crypto asset pool is not that strong, especially with the recent good performance of the A-share market, so a lot of money has been withdrawn from the cryptocurrency circle and entered the stock market. For example, the investment in mining machines is still very large, and everyone needs to have a correct expectation of investment returns, how long this cycle will be, and whether the market will change during this cycle. All of these need to be carefully considered before making a decision.

Do not enter or enter Filecoin cautiously

Langshen Miner Co-founder Langshen

Filecoin has a hardware problem, and the responsible party is unclear

After the Filecoin mainnet goes online, it may be a mess. Currently, the quality of mining machines on the entire network varies. When customers invest, they choose cluster solutions for hardware investment. There are projects with optimized software at the bottom. At present, the mortgage and penalty mechanisms are vague when selling mining machines. For example, I bought the hardware. After the mainnet goes online, who will provide the mortgage coins for the relevant computing space?

FIL has a penalty mechanism. We bought equipment from some equipment providers and also hosted them there. In the end, we were punished due to some problems and the FIL coins were deducted. So who is responsible for the deducted coins? These are all issues that need to be explained clearly. It is biased to promote the payback period of the mining machine without actual testing.

Wang Chunhua, co-founder of Hufu

Rationally understand the "first mine" and look at long-term value investment

The popularity of the entire Filecoin ecosystem is unquestionable, and the concept of grabbing the "first mine" is also a topic that many friends in the circle have discussed a lot recently. As a supporter of the IPFS ecosystem, every time I hear that everyone recognizes Filecoin, I can't help but smile.

However, as an honest exchange, we would like to remind all users that no matter how attractive the "first mine" is, the total amount is fixed. The more people rush to grab it, the less they actually get. This is inevitable.

The main network of IPFS has not yet been launched, and the futures trading prices of various exchanges are difficult to use as a benchmark for the future FIL price. Every participant will have different judgments on the future price trend. With the launch of the main network, the share of primary market investment will also be unlocked linearly. According to past experience, when everyone places extremely high value on the "first mine", the selling pressure is the heaviest. Who will take up such a high selling pressure at that time?

So I would like to remind everyone that if you are optimistic about the IPFS ecosystem and the secondary market trend of FIL, you should still look at long-term value investment, rather than rushing to grab something at a specific point in time to get so-called "rich overnight". I would like to remind everyone of the high risks behind high returns.

Big V in the cryptocurrency circle: CoinGrandpa

Filecoin selling pressure is too great

There are too many people competing in mining. In the past two years since the token was launched, there have been organizations selling mining machines in various forms. Countless mining machines have been sold, and the bubble has been blown up. People who participated in mining in the early stage may not be able to cover the cost, so most of the chips mined will be sold. Secondly, some people participated in private placement, which is also a potential selling pressure. The price of futures tokens on the exchange is very high now, and the cost is much higher than that of private placement, which will induce those private placement participants to cash out. They are all old leeks, and they will not be as aggressive as new leeks in investment.

Wan Hui, founding partner of Primitive Ventures

There is a serious imbalance in the popularity of domestic and foreign communities

The enthusiasm of domestic and foreign communities is extremely unbalanced, and savvy players have transferred risks by selling futures and cloud computing power.

There are many different opinions about Filecoin, and the most important thing is to make your own judgment.