Force Research | A must-read before the space race
|
This article was originally written by Tony from IPFS Force Zone Recently, Filecoin's official website is testing the economic model coefficients, proposing a 20-day freeze period for miners' mining income, and a 180-day linear release period after unfreezing. Therefore, its seemingly "irrational" parameter settings caused a sensation in the market. Keren, head of the Protocol Labs China community, said: The economic model coefficients are only for preliminary network testing and are not of much reference value at present (Figure 1) . (Figure 1) Keren, head of the Protocol Labs Chinese community, explains, Source: WeChat, 2020-07 So what happens if we boldly take the test coefficients “seriously”? Our calculations show that once it is put into use, the market demand environment remains unchanged and Filecoin is implemented normally, the circulating Filecoin tokens will decrease by 7.8% in the first year, causing the price of Filecoin to rise by about 8.5%. In theory, as the N-day freezing period and the M-day linear release period get longer, the price of Filecoin will increase accordingly . This article compares the Fil circulation volume in the first year without freezing and linear release cycle and the Fil circulation volume in the freezing and linear release cycle, and then deduces that the deviation of circulation volume will lead to changes in the currency price. Before understanding the deduction process, you need to understand the Filecoin token ratio, the daily supply generated by miners, the total output of miners, and the total number of mortgages in the entire network, and we distinguish between the theoretical circulation volume, the real circulation volume, and the actual circulation volume of Fil in order to further understand the deduction. The following is an introduction to the concept and the deduction process (the content is hardcore, please read patiently) : 1) Token Allocation (Figure 2) Filecoin Economic Model White Paper, Source: Filecoin, 2017 From the official token white paper (Figure 2) : ① Filecoin’s token is FIL, with a total of 2 billion pieces ② Miner rewards: 1.4 billion pieces (70%, obtained through mining) ③ Development team: 300 million (15%, linear release over 6 years) ④ Investors: 200 million (10%), with different release periods depending on the discount; 6 months (0%), 1 year (7.5%), 2 years (15%), 3 years (20%) ⑤ Foundation: 100 million (5%, linear release over 6 years) 2) Normal mining income of miners and actual daily supply of miners after test network deployment The total number of tokens mined by miners. In Bitcoin's miner incentive mechanism, the half-decay period of distribution is 4 years, that is, half of the remaining tokens are generated every 4 years; in the Filecoin system, this number is 6, that is, half of the remaining tokens are generated every 6 years. According to the test results of the second phase of the current network, the release of mining tokens can be divided into two parts: the network simple supply part and the network baseline supply part, and the profit distribution ratio between the two is 3:7 . Simple supply part : That is, the halving period is 6 years. According to the official public formula, the total number of tokens mined by miners is: Network baseline provisioning section: Its main purpose is to prevent miners from leaving the network in the early stage and delay the release of some block rewards to protect the network. Therefore, the network requires the total network computing power to reach 1EB to ensure that it can restore its normal mining income, of which this part of the income accounts for 70%. Because the network baseline is set to a large value and is difficult to achieve in the short term; and when 1EB is not reached, the mining part is temporarily difficult to calculate. We will not consider the income during the period when the network baseline is involved. The value will be too large when the rules are clarified later. Without considering the network baseline income, if only the income from the simple supply mining part is considered, the daily miner income is as follows: The daily supply of miners that conforms to simple rules . From the above formula, it can be deduced that the number of FIL produced by the block on the nth day can be deduced You can also refer to the article "Interpreting the Filecoin Mortgage Mechanism". After correcting the formula, the speed of mining FIL in the entire network every day is approximately equal to 3) Fil theoretical circulation We all know that the tokens released by Fil are mainly divided into the sum of tokens released by mining, foundations, investors, and development teams. According to the official theory, without considering the actual network situation, the specific calculation is as follows: ① The total amount of mining released can refer to the above formula ② Both the Foundation and the development team will release linearly over six years, Then we can know that the theoretical circulation of FIL = 30% × miner income + foundation release + investor release + development team release , which is Before combining the freezing period and linear release period, we need to calculate the total amount of Fil pledged across the entire network to derive the actual Fil market circulation. 1) Total mortgage pledge of the entire network From the mortgage regulations, we can know that the total pledge of the entire network = the total computing power pledge of the entire network + the total storage pledge of the entire network + market pledge = circulating FIL × (computing power pledge ratio + storage pledge ratio) + market pledge . Storage pledge is mainly used for the storage market, and pledge is used for chain maintenance; computing power pledge is the pledge provided by miners when they promise to provide available space for the network during mining, and the storage pledge computing power pledge ratio and storage pledge ratio are 30% and 5%. Market pledge is mainly the tokens that are fully released during the Filecoin network task process, which is currently tentatively set to 0. Through the formula, we can roughly get the trend of pledge changes. The factors that affect the total pledge of the entire network are as follows: 1. The number of Fil produced by the entire network; 2. The speed of releasing locked Fil; 3. Total number of miners; 4. And two parameters adjusted by the official: computing power pledge ratio and per capita pledge ratio; 5. The size of the market mortgage share (this item can be ignored at this stage); 2) Fil’s actual circulation The actual circulation of Fil should be the amount after deducting the total amount of pledged in the entire network from the theoretical circulation of Fil. Then the actual circulation of Fil = the theoretical circulation of Fil - the total pledged in the entire network, which is Right now Right now If a freeze period of N days is introduced and there are M days of linear release, the linear release amount is accumulated every day, plus the amount released by the foundation, team and investors, and the amount that has not ended the freeze period is not counted. Then the actual circulation of Fil on the Tth day is = the sum of the linear release amount released every day + the amount released by the foundation + the amount released by investors + the amount released by the development team , which is When the freezing period N is 20 days and the linear release period M is 180 days, the actual circulation of Fil = Taking the first year as the calculation unit, 365 days a year, substitute the time T. In the first year, the intervention of the baseline variable is not considered. After the rules are clear, the circulation volume will be larger than the following results after adding this parameter. The actual circulation volume in the first year is 116 million. The actual circulation volume in the first year is 108 million. The actual circulation volume of Fil = (Figure 3) Circulation volume comparison (without considering the network baseline income in the first year, only considering the mining income of the simple supply part of mining) Source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-08-04 According to the above Fil real circulation and actual circulation (theoretical circulation is about 116 million, actual circulation is 108 million), the result is 80 million, which is about 6.9% less than expected. 3) Currency circulation rules: The actual circulation decreases by 6.9% and the unit price of Fil may increase by 7.4% According to the law of currency circulation: Purchasing power of paper money = amount of currency needed in circulation / amount of paper money issued. We convert it into Filecoin and organize it as: Purchasing power of Filecoin (or unit price) = amount of Filecoin needed in circulation / actual amount of Filecoin issued. Assuming that the demand is fixed within the next year, that is, the amount of Filecoin needed in circulation is fixed, combined with the fact that the actual issuance of Filecoin has decreased by about 6.9%, the purchasing power (or unit price) of Filecoin after the change = the amount of Filecoin needed in circulation / {the actual issuance of Filecoin × (1-6.9%)} = (1+7.4%) × the original purchasing power (or unit price) of Filecoin, then the unit price of Filecoin may increase by about 7.4%. In principle, the larger the freezing period N and the linear release period M, the less the circulation in the market will be, which will lead to a higher unit price of Filecoin. However, the premise of this condition is that the token economy must be within a reasonable range of supply and demand. Otherwise, very few tokens in circulation will lead to insufficient supply, and the number of miners who actually maintain the network will decrease, which will further lead to the negativity of miners who do not receive rewards; or it will increase the price of services paid for by FIL, which is likely to weaken the competitiveness of Filecoin services. If the economic model deviates from the reasonable range, it may cause the network to collapse. In summary, behind the testing of the token economic coefficient, the Protocol Labs team is actually seeking a coefficient that better matches the balance between the market and miners. Its main goal may be to reduce Filecoin inflation, reduce cheating miners, and increase the cost of attacking the network. Fundamentally, it is to maintain the long-term development of the network, but at the same time it also extends the reward cycle for miners. Theoretically, under the premise that Filecoin can be implemented normally and complies with the laws of market economy, based on the first year of launch, the freezing period is 20 days and the linear release cycle is 180 days. Although the currency will decrease by 6.9%, the price will most likely increase by 7.4%, which can make up for the loss of miners' delayed rewards in terms of total value. |
Recommend
You can tell a lot about yourself by the way you dress
There are so many different dressing styles for g...
Do good things without leaving your name
There is a kind of hero called "unsung hero&...
What does it mean to say "Fu Yi Nian Fa Zhong Xiang"?
Many times, we cannot trust too much a person who...
What is the personality fortune of people with watery eyes?
If a person's eyes are watery and bright, it ...
What does it mean to be lonely all your life?
No one likes loneliness, but some people are dest...
Is it good to have a cinnabar mole on the palm? What does a cinnabar mole on the palm mean?
Moles are a common presence for people, and every...
What kind of face makes women have many suitors?
Some people will worry about not having luck in l...
Sun Yuchen's personal Weibo account "Sun Ge Blockchain" was blocked again
On September 22, Sun Yuchen's personal Weibo ...
Contempt from 'coinless people': Bitcoin price will fall to $100 in ten years
Without taking into account the current and poten...
What are nasolabial folds? Where are they?
What are nasolabial folds? Where are the nasolabi...
Is it good for a woman to have a mole behind her left leg? What does it mean?
Everyone has moles on their bodies to a greater o...
Impression 1475: Clear skies and hidden dangers on the road to Filecoin investment
Chuchu: Hello, good evening everyone. I am today’...
Mole location and destiny-what does a mole on the clavicle mean
People with moles on their clavicle are generally...
Are men who show the whites of their eyes bad-hearted? What is the personality of a person with four white eyes?
In real life, some people have very good hearts, w...
The appearance of a woman with good temperament and a prosperous husband
Temperament is something that is mostly innate, r...