Opinion | Now is the "darkest moment" to buy Filecoin computing power mining machines

The content of this article is simple but important, and it directly states the following conclusion:

Now is not a good time to buy Filecoin mining machines.

Don’t panic if you have purchased before. This week is not suitable for investing in Filecoin computing power or mining machines. I will explain the reasons in detail below. A mind map is attached at the end of the article.

There are three reasons:

First, the big miners have been tested online, but the pattern has changed, or the ranking is not determined. It is impossible to effectively compare the computing efficiency and hardware layout of various manufacturers within three to five days. The top five before are no longer the top five according to today's results.

This is divided into two levels: computing efficiency and hardware layout

A. As mentioned before, computing power efficiency cannot be truly known at present. All we can rely on is the so-called reputation of the manufacturer and the time and results of ecological construction.

Reference link: "Correct the Planet Daily A serious omission in the article 》

B. Hardware layout. According to the hardware layout cycle of the electronics industry, the soul prelude has been completed at this time, that is, the graphics card, memory, motherboard and other accessories that should be purchased have been purchased and arranged. For manufacturers, it is too late to buy and arrange machines to participate in the big miner test. The real strength of the manufacturer can be judged from the ranking and computing power of the big miner test. Statistics on the sales of the top five well-known manufacturers show that each of them purchases electronic hardware for more than 200 million (this is a conservative estimate). If manufacturers do not do their job well and do not continue to work hard on the supply chain, they now have three options: running away, surrendering, or more sophisticated scams.

Second, the issue of pledge rate. This account has discussed this before. Now there are rumors everywhere. The pictures and information (such as the remarks of Filecoin core developer WHY, saying that 1Sector pledges 1Filecoin) are hard to be convincing. The pledge rate written on github before is also not determined.

If it is really a 1Sector 1Filecoin pledge (currently it is a large miner testing the pledge model, 1sector can pledge up to 1fil)

1sector=32GB

Let’s calculate how much Filecoin needs to be staked for 1P:

10^6G/32G=31250Fil

In other words, 30,000 Fils need to be staked for 1PB, and 300,000 Fils need to be staked for 10PB. On the first day of the mainnet launch, 418,000 coins were mined worldwide (based on the economic model).

If the global capacity can reach 14PB, all the mined coins will have to be staked the next day. If it is larger, it can only be bought from the secondary market, so miners are the most important bottom line for the Filecoin price.

Currently, almost all of the world's major mining companies are located in China, and there are one or two capable ones in other Asian countries such as South Korea.

Of course, the above is just a preliminary estimate. After the mainnet is launched, it will not be 1Sector 1Fil for mortgage, nor will it be fixed. The mortgage rate will fluctuate to a certain extent. However, it is still not completely certain.

Third, the timing issue. The above two points refer to the real-world situation, that is, the real battle situation. Now let’s look at the time. If the computing power equipment is sufficient, you can buy it after three to five days or a week. Those who can catch up with the first mine (the first day of the main network launch) can still catch up, and those who can’t catch up with the first mine will still not catch up with the first mine. This is a matter of supply chain time turnover. If you have worked in the electronic supply chain or understand this industry, you must understand it very well.

If a manufacturer is promoting heavily now and asks you to buy the so-called "first mine" in the next few days, he is either malicious or too anxious, and his heart is despicable.

There is nothing wrong with the previous promotion, and there is nothing wrong with the promotion in a few days, but the timing is wrong now. He is definitely not worried that customers will not buy and he will not get rich overnight - I am particularly worried that you will not make money. Do you think this logic makes sense?

Summary: It is right to have bought it, it is right not to have bought it, and it is right to buy it in a few days. Buying now or repurchasing is really the darkest moment.

Investment is like this, seeing the project is in full swing, but the individual is down-to-earth. Some friends have been burned by the FOMO mentality and the publicity copy and are eager to try. The next three to five days from today will be the darkest moment for buying Filecoin.

My suggestion is very clear: wait three to five days and see. At that time, whether to fight back or ride the wave. Let's study and discuss together. In order for you to better understand the logic above, I have specially drawn a mind map for your reference.

Mind map link. If you have any interesting new ideas, you can click on the link to make supplements. Mind map open source experiment