While Bitcoin’s price volatility remains a concern, Bitcoin has hit a significant milestone in the past 24 hours. According to data released by Messari, Bitcoin completed its longest ever streak above $10,000, surpassing its previous streak of 62 days between December 1, 2017 and January 31, 2018. While this is good news when compared to Bitcoin’s most bullish period, the difference between the two timelines is quite stark. For those new to the industry, the position of Bitcoin at that time was after the strongest rally ever, with the price reaching an all-time high of $20,000. The period of volatility from December to January was seen as a phase above $10,000. Currently, Bitcoin has been above $10,000 for 63 days, but the price upside is very limited. Currently, the trend is neither bullish nor bearish, and the price has remained between $10,000 and $12,500 since July 27. In addition, other fundamentals reported by CoinMetrics pointed out that Bitcoin’s 180-day return volatility fell by 41% in September. So, what exactly has changed in Bitcoin over the past two months? As mentioned above, Bitcoin has been trading in a limited range over the past few months, which has completely hit short-term futures open interest. Although the market does implement funding rates to prevent major market volatility, Bitcoin’s funding rates have remained negative or neutral over the past few weeks, even as prices have fallen, which has led to an overabundance of short traders. Considering this and the decrease in open interest, fewer traders are now trading with additional leverage due to the lack of clarity. Although it remains to be seen whether the bears will succeed, the fact that high leverage is being reduced will in turn prevent large price fluctuations. Therefore, in the current medium-term trend of Bitcoin, a sharp correction is gradually becoming a possibility, considering that Bitcoin remains in the upper range of $10,000. The aforementioned narrative can also be supported by the fact that Bitcoin whales are currently accumulating in the higher range. Between September 24 and September 27, 150,000 BTC were purchased at prices between $10k and $10.7k, representing a price increase of $450 USD at press time. On the other hand, despite an unexpected turbulence in financial markets, if the price depends only on Bitcoin itself, a closing position below $10,000 will not be seen for a long time, especially if a bullish rally starts from this point. However, as many anticipate a possible drop to $8,500-9,500, the current rally will suddenly vanish again until the next bull rally improves it. That is, the current winning streak may end in the next few weeks. But we still have a question mark about the final result. (Golden Finance) |
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