Project owners do business in a bear market and speculate on coins in a bull market. Judging from the recent frequent projects, next year's performance

From 2017 to now, many people have discovered that cryptocurrency speculation is actually quite regular, such as rising on Saturdays, falling on Sundays, rising at the beginning of the year, falling at the end of the year, etc. Although many people do not quite understand how such behavior is achieved, it is still effective for a period of time anyway. Of course, some people have also discovered that in a complete bull and bear period, project parties generally develop codes in a bear market, and tend to issue coins, establish new projects, and raise money in a bull market. So what is the recent market performance like?

In fact, if someone pays attention to the primary market, they will find that some projects are now starting to carry out intensive publicity. Of course, in order to avoid suspicion, the author will not disclose the specific project names here, but one thing is more interesting. These projects basically have a more obvious feature, that is, they were established relatively early, generally in 2017 or 2018, and then started the last round or the penultimate round of financing in 2020, and some have already begun to be listed and traded.

We checked the GitHub information of some projects, which mainly showed that the projects were generally established in 2018, and then 2019 and 2020 were intensive development periods, and then there was little development in recent months. In the words of industry insiders, the project has basically completed the development of the architecture, and the current stage is to improve the code or find bugs. At the same time, a wave of intensive publicity has begun in the market, and a hackathon has been held to let everyone pay attention to the project, and the time point is still around October and November. In the past few days, the author has also noticed the code bug activities of several projects. If anyone is interested, you can also take a look.

We all know that the end of each year is basically a period of tight funds, and many markets will fall at this time. Generally speaking, it is not a good time to launch the main network or token trading at this time. The good times are generally in April and May in the first half of the year. After all, the market is in an upward period, so it is easy to attract many people to invest. The market performance is often not very good at the end of the year, and the supervision is basically strong, so the probability of currency price decline will be relatively large.

As for some of the popular projects that have been launched recently, we basically think there is only one possibility: they have a better grasp of the bull market in the later stage, so they want to trade in the market in the early stage of the bull market and then trigger a big bull market.

Of course, there is another possibility, that is, the project party purely wants to reap the benefits of the market and crash the market as soon as it opens. Naturally, the investors are not willing to see this. Such reap-the-benefits projects are generally crudely made and therefore a little easier to identify.

Combined with what we said before, in the bull market, people speculate on new coins or old coins? In fact, this question is relatively simple to think about. Generally, if you can speculate on new coins, you are unlikely to speculate on old coins. On the one hand, the previous digital currency industry has continued this rule. Generally, every bull market can eliminate many coins, such as Infinite Coin, Future Coin, Black Coin, etc. Will this time also eliminate many coins? I think there is a high probability that unless the main dealer gets most of the chips of a certain altcoin, basically no one will speculate on that coin.

In this case, it is actually very easy for people to figure it out. Under such unfavorable circumstances at the end of the year, if there is a wave of project parties issuing coins intensively, then there can only be one possibility, which is to prepare for the bull market next year.

Many people have not been clear about what drives the bull market. In fact, to put it simply, it is driven by altcoins. For example, Bitcoin has hit a record high last year. So does anyone feel the arrival of a bull market? No, because the altcoins they hold have not risen, so they don’t think that a bull market has arrived. It is definitely not enough to just increase Bitcoin. Moreover, if Bitcoin soars, altcoins may also be sucked dry. Therefore, for many people, the best result is not that Bitcoin rises, but that Bitcoin does not move.

Only when Bitcoin is not moving can big market funds speculate on altcoins and push up the price. Finally, in a peaceful atmosphere, Bitcoin will skyrocket and altcoins will plummet, forming a blood-sucking market.

The arrival of the blood-sucking market actually represents a decrease in incremental funds in the market. This is naturally a sign that the bull market has come to an end. Therefore, many people will choose to continue selling. As a result, not only will the altcoins fall, but Bitcoin will also fall. This is what we call a waterfall market.

Of course, we also found from 2017 to 2019 that there were actually some projects launched on the market, which also caused a wave of speculation. In fact, we can regard such a market as an artificial bull market. Artificial bull markets are generally created deliberately. For example, last year's IEO was created by Binance. In this case, IEO cannot last long. It is just like when we throw an object upwards, it will eventually fall to the ground due to the gravity of the earth. There will inevitably be a waterfall in the end. This year's DeFi is actually quite similar.

However, DeFi has a characteristic, that is, if there is a certain demand in the market, the market will inevitably have funds participating in DeFi for a long time. Therefore, in this case, it will naturally form a certain scale. Of course, we have seen that IEO projects have gradually warmed up recently, such as Huobi and Bitmax. This also shows from the side that the market is actually looking forward to the market at the end of this year and next year.

Another focus is the black swan. In recent years, there have been many black swan events, so nothing is absolute. However, judging from the number of projects recently issued by project parties, they are very likely to choose to hype the market next year. Of course, we have also noticed that the Ethereum 2.0 contracts have basically begun to be deployed step by step. Although Ethereum 2.0 seems a bit hasty at present, as one of the bull market engines, Ethereum will inevitably usher in a wave of hype, and it is basically regarded as the "head" of altcoins. Therefore, if you choose to hype altcoins, then you can pay attention to it.

Final reminder: the risk of altcoin speculation is still very high. Currently, Bitcoin has hit a one-year high, which also shows that long-term investment in Bitcoin is a relatively safe approach. Therefore, "buy Bitcoin when in doubt", at least this is the "political correctness" of the currency circle.