The above figure shows the long-term trend of BTC from 2010 to 2020. Through research, we can find that the three halvings are used as time division points, extending from the lowest point of each previous bear market to the halving time point in each cycle, and the time period when the market began to fluctuate upward after the halving to the highest point of this bull market. We compared and found that during this entire bull market cycle, there were two time periods with a golden ratio of 51% and 49%. For example, taking the entire bull market cycle as an example, Bitcoin hit the lowest point of the bear market in early January 2015, and its production was halved for the second time in July 2016, which was a period of about 546 days. BTC then continued to fluctuate upward until it reached its highest point in December 2017, which was a period of about 532 days. The ratio of the two conforms to the golden ratio of 51% and 49%. The first round of bull market from the end of 2011 to 2013 also conforms to this rule. At present, this round of BTC hit a bear market low of $3,150 in December 2018, and the third production halving in May 2020, this period of time is about 518 days. According to the golden time division ratio, starting from the third halving on May 12, it will take about 504 days, 49% of the time ratio, for the price to rise to the highest level of this bull market, and the approximate date is around October 2021, which is about 480 days away. The lowest point of this bull market started from $3,150. Even the sharp drop on 312 did not set a new low, which is in line with the characteristics of the previous bull market cycles. History will not repeat itself, but we can study big data to predict the future trend. At present, the golden time split ratio of 51% and 49% is still in effect. At present, BTC is still in the slow bull stage of the bull market, and the market is still brewing for the acceleration of the peak. It is not too late to enter the market in the medium and long term, and the general direction remains optimistic about the future market. |
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