What is "bottom line thinking"? Three investment suggestions for now_

In fact, yesterday's article only expressed my concerns about the unstable factors brewing in the current market. This does not mean that the things I worry about will definitely happen. But since these unstable factors exist objectively, as long as they exist, negative situations are likely to occur. Therefore, when we make investment plans, we must consider the worst possible situation and take precautions against it.

The above way of thinking is called "bottom line thinking", which is to consider whether we can survive when the worst happens.

This skill is needed for everything from the strategic planning of national leaders to the long-term planning of company leaders and even more specifically for one's own investment layout. Cryptocurrency investment is originally a high-risk field, and more attention should be paid to "bottom line thinking". At the Seventh National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 1945, Mao Zedong listed 17 possible worst-case scenarios: - If the Kuomintang occupied several large bases - If tens of thousands of troops were eliminated by the Kuomintang - If pessimism and fatigue appeared in the party - If the US imperialists fully supported Chiang Kai-shek's army... Mao Zedong analyzed all the unfavorable situations and possible problems. At the meeting, Mao Zedong proposed to establish the party's policies based on the worst possibility, especially the senior responsible cadres of the party, who should be mentally prepared to deal with very difficult and very unfavorable situations. Make the best preparations, make the worst plans, and strive for the best results. Mao Zedong brought "bottom line thinking" to the extreme. This is true for national leaders and company leaders.

Huawei, which has been trapped in the US sanctions for the past two years but has stood firm, has been able to persist in the fierce battle and become more and more courageous despite the sanctions imposed by the United States with the whole country's strength. It relies not only on its own strength as a backing, but also on Ren Zhengfei's foresight and "bottom line thinking". As early as 8 years ago in 2012, in an internal speech, Ren Zhengfei decisively proposed that "when our food supply is cut off, the backup system must be able to be used". It was precisely because Huawei had considered the danger of "food shortage" which no one believed at the time at a strategic level that it boldly laid out the development of chips and operating systems and withstood the US sanctions 8 years later. We investors should do the same. We should always think about whether we can survive the most dangerous market crash, especially when the market is booming, we should be prepared for danger in times of peace.

So what should we do now? Here are my suggestions:

1. Never invest fully at any time. "Invest fully" here means investing all the principal in cryptocurrencies. If you are fully invested now, I suggest you cash out at least 10% of your investment and withdraw from the market.

2. Do not increase your Bitcoin and Ethereum positions before February next year. Investors who are looking at the long term and do not care about short-term risks, or investors who must buy for various reasons, can ignore this and continue to buy. But I will not buy during this period. Because if you buy during this period, the short-term downside is significantly higher than the upside, and once this risk occurs, it may lead to a deep decline.

3. Investors who are not fully invested but already hold coins can choose to wait and see for the time being. If investors are not fully invested but still have emergency funds, they can continue to hold the coins they hold and do not need to worry too much. Because if the risk I am worried about does not happen, selling the coins now may be a premature loss of chips in the long run, which is not cost-effective. I hope everyone will work hard to establish their own "bottom line thinking", be able to calmly deal with various black swans, and survive in this market for a long time.