The cryptocurrency world is talking about the market. Remember: Don’t give up in a bear market, and don’t be greedy in a bull market.

Many times it seems that fate has been determined, but most people have not discovered it yet. When I looked at the historical trend chart of Bitcoin these days, I found something interesting, that is, at the end of 2016, the price of Bitcoin just broke the previous high in December 2013, which is very similar to the current market.

Of course, not only that, the price of the currency also underwent a wave of adjustments before September 2016. Similarly, the overall price of the currency also underwent a wave of adjustments in September and October this year. It seems that the trend is closer. Of course, if the subsequent trend can continue the market situation from the end of 2016 to 2017, then it can be estimated that it should be able to reach a staged high in June and July 2021, and then start a relatively large correction. Of course, if the trend of 2017 is replicated, then the market may reach a historical high in October or November 2021, and then prepare for the next wave of bear market.

Of course, the arrival of the bull market is naturally a good thing for the industry. After all, during the entire bear market winter, many companies engaged in the cryptocurrency or blockchain industry could not operate and laid off employees and closed down. Of course, there were also many scams. I believe that there may be more cryptocurrency scams in this bull market. Therefore, for the majority of friends in the currency circle, the bull market is a time of harvest, so don’t be too curious.

Of course, the past market situation is over, but now it seems to be following the old path. Is it that the main force deliberately makes everyone think that the bull market is coming? Of course, this also proves once again that the cryptocurrency bull market cycle is basically a law of once every four years. The law of nature is worth believing in, but how to make money has its own way. It is worth noting that more and more people are adding leveraged contracts in the market these days, and many people are getting bolder and bolder. It can be imagined that I personally think that this bull market will be an extraordinary bull market.

Because of the leveraged contracts, in fact, many times, the bull market will be cut by these leverages. Here we take the bull market in the stock market from 2014 to 2015 as an example:

The bull market in the stock market lasted one year and nine months from January 2006 to October 2007.

The stock market bull run from July 2014 to June 2015 lasted less than a year

What is the gap here?

Many people may not know that the difference here is leverage. The stock market bull market in 2014 was actually a leveraged bull market. The HOMs over-the-counter financing system, led by Hang Seng Electronics, was very popular. Many people started over-the-counter financing. The final result was that this stock market bull market did not break through the previous highest point, and the time it lasted was greatly shortened.

What is OTC financing? In fact, it is borrowing money to trade stocks, which can be simply understood as leverage.

At that time, digital currency investment had not yet become popular, and leveraged contracts were participated by only a very small number of players. It was not as crazy as it is now.

Of course, in the past few years, the development of cryptocurrency contracts has been more and more rapid. Many people have opened the contract function and finally got liquidated. Why did it happen? I think this is actually a warning from the main force to investors, that is, don't touch the contract, just play the spot honestly.

As for why the main players are unwilling to let investors play with contracts, it is actually because they are worried that they will escape early through amplified leverage. Only when everyone does not play with contracts can the bull market be extended and the dealers behind them can complete the hype and final shipment process. Of course, many early participants will also happily let late participants take over.

But once the contract rises, the main force can easily pull the price up to one times, and someone in the market may have earned more than 10 times. In the past, if one earned ten times, the market should have been dumped. At this time, who would dare to pull the price up? Naturally, everyone would join forces to dump the market, and the result can be imagined.

To be honest, I have no idea how this bull market will go, but one thing is certain, that is, pay close attention to the development of market contracts, such as contract competitions held by exchanges, the number of people participating in contract trading, whether there are new entrants around who are playing with contracts, whether there is any promotion of contract trading in cryptocurrency exhibitions or conferences, etc. In fact, these are all relatively small points of concern. Once we find that the number of people participating in the contract has increased significantly, we should be vigilant.

Of course, there is another point. If the altcoins in many people’s hands do not rise, but they see that other people’s coins rise higher, what should they do? In fact, generally speaking, the bull market will experience the trend of Bitcoin-mainstream coins-altcoins-junk coins-Bitcoin. Of course, in principle, it is not recommended to hold a large amount of altcoins and junk coins. Obviously, these two types of coins basically rise and fall quickly. Therefore, if you are unfortunate enough to get them, you should basically pay attention and never treat them as value coins. At present, the only value coins recognized by the market are Bitcoin and Ethereum. Other currencies may take a certain amount of time. Therefore, as long as you are not particularly greedy, there is still a high probability of making money in the bull market.