Comprehensive analysis report on the computing power market in November

(The data taken are the daily closing prices from 2020.11.1 to 2020.11.28)

Data source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/

The price of Bitcoin showed an overall upward trend in November, and the trend was obvious.

From 96159.77 yuan on November 1 to 124021.94 yuan on November 28, the increase was 28.97%. The highest point was 133752.22 yuan on November 24, an increase of 39.09%, which has exceeded the highest point of 132818.70 yuan in the bull market in 2017; the lowest point was 94853.43 yuan on November 2, an increase of -1.36%. However, there was a slight downward trend at the end of November, and it is possible to stabilize in the range of 120,000 to 130,000 yuan.

2. FPPS and PPS

Data source: btc.com

Due to the increase in the price of coins, FPPS & PPS also showed an upward trend in November, with a slight decline at the end of the month.

FPPS increased from 0.7443 yuan on November 1 to 0.9388 yuan on November 28, an increase of 26.13%; the highest point was 1.0459 yuan on November 5, an increase of 40.52%. This was the period with the strongest growth momentum, and it has basically stabilized between 0.9 and 1.0 yuan since then.

PPS increased from 0.6048 yuan on November 1 to 0.8855 yuan on November 28, an increase of 46.41%; the highest point was 0.9550 yuan on November 24, an increase of 57.90%.

3. Network Computing Power

Data source: btc.com

The overall network computing power in November showed an upward trend. The increase trend from November 1 to November 10 was obvious, with an increase of 19.74%. Then there was a more obvious increase from November 20 to November 23, with an increase of 9.51%.

From 107.83EH/s on November 1 to 135.48EH/s on November 28, an increase of 25.64%; the highest point was 140.76EH/s on November 23, an increase of 30.54%.

The average computing power in November was 126.15EH/s, a decrease of 6.63% from 135.11EH/s in October, and the difficulty decreased by 12%.

4. Mining machine price

(MAD is the mean absolute deviation, which can represent the degree of dispersion of a set of data. The larger the value, the greater the degree of dispersion)

Data source: www.veryhash.com

In November, the prices of Antminer T17, S17, S19, and S19Pro all showed an upward trend. The largest increase was in T17, which was 76.43%, and the smallest increase was in S19Pro, which was 28.27%.

The price of T17 increased the most, but the price fluctuation is acceptable; the price of S17 and S19 increased to a satisfactory level, and the price fluctuation was small; the price of S19Pro increased the least, and the price fluctuation was the largest. The comprehensive recommendation is to choose T17.

(The price increase of M31S and M30S is too small, so no MAD comparison is made)

Data source: www.veryhash.com

In November, the prices of Shenma mining machines M21S, M20S, M31S, and M30S all showed an upward trend, among which M21S and M20S increased the most, by 59.42% and 60.22% respectively, reversing the downward trend in October.

The price increases of M21S and M20S are similar, but the price fluctuations of M21S are more stable.

V. Comprehensive income

(Comprehensive income is mining machine income + mining income)

Data source: www.veryhash.com

(The data is calculated based on the start and end time of 11.1~11.28)

Data source: www.veryhash.com

In November, the comprehensive revenue of Antminer T17, S17, S19, and S19Pro showed a significant increase. Among them, T17 had the highest comprehensive yield, reaching 108.60%, but its main income came from the price of the mining machine, and its mining income was the lowest.

The mining income of S19 and S19Pro is the same, but the price of S19 mining machine is higher, so the overall rate of return is higher than S19Pro.

Data source: www.veryhash.com

The comprehensive income of these four Shenma mining machines in November also showed an increasing trend, among which M21S and M20S performed more outstandingly, with yields of 88.87% and 82.63% respectively. Similarly, the income of M21S and M20S mainly comes from the price of mining machines, and the mining income is less than that of M31S and M30S.

Judging from the mining income alone, M30S, S19Pro, and S19 are still the mining machines with the highest income. However, after considering the price of mining machines, T17, M21S, and M20S have the highest yield rate.

II. E TH&FIL (One-week analysis)

1. About the ETH hashrate market

As of the publication date of November 27, the top three ETH mining machines in terms of profitability are: Wolf God B3, Innosilicon A10Pro, and Ethereum Bull Z7. Since the market share of Ethereum Bull Z7 is relatively small and there is not much supply on the market, its reference value is ignored.

ETH mining machines are essentially the same as BTC mining machines, and are both affected by the rise in coin prices and the supply of mining machines. This week, the price of ETH rose by 1.68%, and the daily gross income of each Wolf God B3 and Innosilicon A10Pro was 137.03 yuan and 194.94 yuan respectively.

Chart reference: www.qkl123.com, veryhash.com

The above three types of mining machines are not available in the market, and are all futures or second-hand transactions. During this week, due to the large fluctuations in the price of ETH currency and the lack of spot mining machines in the market, although the price of ETH has finally adjusted, the price of ETH mining machines is still high. Just like BTC mining machines, it should be waited until the price of BTC is relatively stable, and then the static payback period of ETH mining machines should be recalculated to set a new price. However, there will be more spot ETH mining machines in December, so the price will definitely change significantly. As of the date of publication, the second-hand spot price of Wolf God B3 is 34,500 yuan, and the futures price of Innosilicon A10pro at the end of December is 38,000 yuan.

2. About Filecoin Hashrate Market

Chart reference: https://filfox.info

The above picture shows the data from 2020.11.21, and the picture below shows the data from 2020.11.27. By comparing the two pictures, we can find that the effective computing power of the entire network has increased by 94P this week, an increase of 9% over last week, 96 new miners, an increase of 14.68% over last week, and the pledged amount of fil has increased by 6.83%. It can be concluded that the filecoin network still maintains a relatively high growth rate, which also shows that more and more people in the market are beginning to recognize the filecoin project.

Chart citation: veryhash.com

The above chart shows the price fluctuation of fil coin this week. Generally speaking, it is in a slight upward trend and is not greatly affected by the BTC market. This shows that the price of fil coin is still a reflection of miners' demand for fil coin pledge, and can also be understood as a value response of supply relationship.

Chart reference: https://filfox.info

According to the data from Feihu Browser, we can see that the Gas fee of the entire network has fluctuated greatly during this period. Due to the original design of the filecoin project, the Gas fee is defined as the fuel fee. Gas consumption is the cost that the entire network should bear, because each node on the network must spend storage and computing resources to verify each message and keep the network in a consistent state. Therefore, based on the Gas usage of a specific message, some Gas will be burned to compensate the network. Therefore, it can be concluded from the figure that the Gas fee rate of the entire network has dropped by more than 20,000 times from the highest value, which greatly reduces the cost of filecoin miners and increases their income at the same time, and will not cause the miners' income to be negative. This also explains why the number of miners this week has increased by 14.68% compared with last week. And this phenomenon has also greatly promoted the growth of the computing power of the entire network, so that miners can gradually increase the fil that can be mortgaged.

From this, it can be concluded that the level of gas fees is an important reason that hinders the increase in computing power of the entire network at this stage. At the same time, the filecoin team is also working hard to reduce message consumption on different chains to reduce gas usage and improve network performance to increase capacity.