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Ye Yinghe, reporter of The Paper Source: The Paper Bitcoin Chronicle Here it comes! In the last hour of November, the price of Bitcoin broke through its all-time high!
On the evening of November 30, the price of Bitcoin on Bitcoin News Information Website Coindesk showed that the price of Bitcoin exceeded the website's historical highest price of $19,665. As of press time, Coindesk data showed that the price of Bitcoin was about $19,766, a 9.17% increase in 24 hours. The transaction volume of Bitcoin in 24 hours was $26.69 billion, and the market value was $366.8 billion, exceeding the market value of JPMorgan Chase. Bitcoin's daily price trend and historical extremes Image source: coindesk JPMorgan Chase market value Image source: Wind According to the market statistics report of Hetongdi, the total liquidation of Bitcoin in the entire network in the past hour was 94.22 million US dollars, the liquidation of Bitcoin in the entire network in 24 hours was 198 million US dollars, and the number of liquidations was 10,975.
In this regard, many industry experts previously told The Paper that the main driving factor of this wave of market is the entry of institutional funds. On November 23, foreign media CNBC quoted Mati Greenspan, portfolio manager and founder of Quantum Economics, as saying: "The difference between now and the rebound in 2017 is that the market was driven by retail speculation at that time, and now it is driven by companies and billionaires."
Lin Weihao, a blockchain industry investor and founder of Axia8 Ventures, also believes that this round of rise is different from 2017 and 2018. The industry has undergone rapid iterations in a few years, from the development of underlying infrastructure, the retention of high-quality assets and projects, to the deepening and rationalization of global consensus, and is not like the overheating in the past that lacked underlying value. In particular, this rise is related to the entry of a large number of overseas institutions. From the earlier layout of Grayscale's large-scale holdings of various assets to more financial institutions applying for trading licenses for assets such as Bitcoin, there has been a certain degree of institutional fomo (fear of missing out), so it can be understood that more major funds have entered, and it can be reasonably understood that the absolute low point of the total market value of Bitcoin or encrypted assets has been greatly raised.
What do you think about the future market?
In fact, many industry insiders told The Paper that pullbacks and fluctuations will occur, but they are all bullish in the long run.
Lin Weihao believes that a large-scale correction is bound to happen, but it may start before 20,000 or after 20,000, so there is no need to speculate too much. What is more certain is that in the long run, there is no quantitative ceiling in sight.
Wang Xiaobin, an early investor of Bicc, previously said: "Overall, the price this year is on an upward trend. The price is constantly hitting the previous high and may enter a volatile range in the near future. This year's price has a chance to sprint to 20,000 US dollars, which will be a new high in the short term, but it is just the beginning for the big bulls next year."
"In the long run, it will continue to rise within 10 years," an investor believes. He said that the returns may be slightly weakened in the near term, but it is still possible to use it as a safe-haven asset, but there will be ups and downs along the way.
CNBC quoted Mike Novogratz, CEO of investment company Galaxy Digital, as giving a specific judgment, believing that Bitcoin may reach $55,000 to $60,000 by the end of this year. However, Novogratz also said in 2018 that Bitcoin may "easily" reach $40,000 by the end of 2018.
Greed index is high
OKEx Research Chief Researcher William pointed out the risks in the current market.
He said that Bitcoin has strong financial attributes, and speculative demand is an important factor affecting Bitcoin prices. As a special asset class, Bitcoin, unlike stocks or bonds, does not generate any predictable cash flow. The only way for investors to get returns is the rise in Bitcoin prices. And like all risky assets, its price is subject to cyclical changes due to changes in investor sentiment and risk attitudes.
William believes that since mid-October, the price of Bitcoin has jumped from around $10,000 to $19,000. Many people in the market have very optimistic expectations for Bitcoin, believing that Bitcoin can reach $80,000 or $100,000 by the end of the year; on the other hand, when researching the market, it was found that many investors began to use credit cards or loans to invest in Bitcoin, which is a very dangerous behavior. From the perspective of the Bitcoin Greed Index, it has now reached 94, and the market is in a state of extreme greed and fanaticism. In particular, from the historical data, since mid-November, the Bitcoin Greed Index has been at a high level of around 90, which is a very dangerous signal.
"Therefore, regarding the future trend of the Bitcoin market, the market is advised to invest cautiously and not to actively increase leverage or invest too much money at one time," he said.
Bitcoin’s darkest and brightest moments
On January 3, 2009, the founder of Bitcoin, who goes by the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, established the Bitcoin Genesis Block, marking the birth of Bitcoin. According to Satoshi Nakamoto's design, Bitcoin has a total upper limit of 21 million pieces, with output halved every four years, as well as features such as decentralization, openness, transparency, traceability, and difficulty in tampering.
Since its birth, Bitcoin has experienced multiple rounds of bull and bear markets.
In August 2010, the Bitcoin exchange Mt.Gox was established in Japan, and Bitcoin began to have real market quotes. And on November 20, 2012, Bitcoin had its first halving.
At the end of March 2013, a financial crisis broke out in Cyprus. Cypriot depositors chose to use Bitcoin as a hedge tool, and Bitcoin attracted worldwide attention for the first time. In October, the US Senate discussed the impact and opportunities brought by Bitcoin. Bitcoin's popularity rose again, showing an upward trend, and once rose to more than $1,000.
In December of the same year, five Chinese ministries jointly issued the "Notice on Preventing Bitcoin Risks", which clarified the non-monetary attributes of Bitcoin and prohibited financial institutions and payment institutions from conducting Bitcoin-related businesses. Bitcoin began to fall. On February 25, 2014, the Bitcoin exchange Mt.Gox declared bankruptcy due to Bitcoin theft, and the price of Bitcoin continued to fall. In August 2015, it fell to $200.
On July 10, 2016, Bitcoin halved for the second time.
In the spring of 2017, the model of initial coin offering (ICO) began to rise, and the price of Bitcoin soared, reaching an all-time high of $19,783, but in September before that, the Chinese government urgently stopped ICO. At the end of January 2018, the price of Bitcoin began to collapse and fell to $3,500 in December 2018.
In June 2019 and February 2020, Bitcoin climbed above $10,000 twice, but it did not last long. On March 12, 2020, Bitcoin also suffered a waterfall-like decline, and was cut in half in less than a month.
However, the price of Bitcoin has gradually risen since then. On May 13, 2020, Bitcoin was halved for the third time. At the end of July, the price of Bitcoin broke through $10,000, and quickly broke through $11,000 and $12,000 within half a month. In early September, the price of Bitcoin also experienced a sharp drop, falling to just over $10,000, and then showed a fluctuating upward trend again. In late October, the price of Bitcoin soared, breaking through several price barriers from $11,000 in just one month, and now breaking the historical record again. Editor-in-charge: Zheng Jingxin Proofreading: Shi Jun |
