This article was originally written by IPFS Force Zone It has been more than 5 months since the end of Filecoin Space Race 1 on August 25, 2020. We all know that the life cycle of a sector is 180 to 540 days, and November 24, 2020 is a watershed. Sectors before this date cannot be renewed, so there will be a large amount of computing power loss in the future. So how much computing power will not be renewed? And what impact will it have? First, let’s take a look at why the computing power drops. The main reasons for the large amount of computing power loss are: some computing power cannot be renewed, the early miners set the time, and the early computing power growth rate was fast. The detailed analysis is as follows: The decline in non-renewable computing power complies with network rules. Once the non-renewable computing power declines, it means that miners release computing power under the conditions of complying with Filecoin sector rules. This is a legal behavior under the Filecoin network rules and has no direct relationship with network failures/miner operation and maintenance; The non-renewable computing power starts from Space Race 1. Filecoin Space Race 1 is different from the height 148888 main network in two aspects: collateral and global space race rewards are provided free of charge through application, so the network stipulates that the computing power before November 24, 2020 is non-renewable and is calculated from Space Race 1; The difference between renewable and non-renewable computing power: whether it needs to be re-mortgaged. Renewable computing power can be renewed after the life cycle of the sector ends. Once it needs to be renewed, it will be regarded as a parallel transition, and there is no need to re-mortgage and increase computing power. The computing power of non-renewable computing power will drop after the expiration, and it needs to be re-mortgaged and increased. The miners set the sector time to determine the time of computing power decline. Before the main network is launched, the default sector life cycle is 540 days, and miners can adjust the sector cycle according to their own needs, which will cause computing power to decline in different time periods.
Non-renewable sectors are not so friendly to miners, because miners need to pay mortgages and gas fees to increase computing power based on the current network conditions. This requires more FIL to maintain the computing power at that time. So how much computing power is expected to drop in the future? The overall network computing power situation in 2021-2022, source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-02-10 The non-renewable computing power exceeds 1EiB. According to the statistics on the Force Zone chain, from February 2020 to August 2022, the non-renewable computing power of the entire network is 1.07665651321411EiB, of which 2022 accounts for 78.84%, so most of the non-renewable computing power is in 2022; The non-renewable computing power is the largest in the first half of 2022. From the above curve, it can be seen that there will be a computing power drop of nearly 39PiB in April 2021, and a computing power drop of more than 10PiB per month from September to November 2021; from February to May 2022, there will be a non-renewable computing power drop of nearly 100PiB per month, with the largest drop in March 2022, exceeding 300PiB.
So what impact will non-renewable computing power have? Non-renewable computing power will mainly affect the revenue of the entire network and increase the mortgage. 1. The revenue of a single T in the entire network has decreased If the non-renewable computing power is not restored within a short period of time, the computing power will drop, which will directly reduce the scale of the entire network, and then be further away from the original baseline requirements. The single T income of the entire network will be directly reduced. Therefore, large-scale non-renewable computing power is not a matter for a single miner, but a matter for the entire network, which will affect the income of all miners. 2. Redoing the computing power requires increasing the collateral Before November 24, 2020, the mortgage of a single T of computing power was 6-7 FILs. At the current stage, the mortgage of a single T is about 9 FILs. In the future, the re-mortgage of the computing power that expires may become higher and higher. Because the mortgage cost is affected by the expected income and the circulation of the entire network, as time goes by, the circulation in the market will increase, and the mortgage cost will become higher and higher. Based on the proposed average pledge cost of 7FIL/T for the sector and the future average re-pledge cost of 10FIL/T (which may be more), how much collateral will be needed in the future? The release and re-mortgage of the entire network in 2021-2022, source: IPFS Force Zone, 2020-02-10 Because the Base Fee has fluctuated greatly recently, it is difficult to calculate in a standard way, so it is temporarily ignored. If the 1.07665651321411EiB non -renewable computing power all drops, the entire network will release about 7.9 million FILs, and it will take nearly 11.29 million FILs to increase the computing power again. It is necessary to add 3-4 million FILs to the fully released FILs as computing power mortgages, and it will take about 55 days (20PiB per day for the entire network growth rate) . How to successfully overcome the computing power decline stage? In short, non-renewable computing power is a new level after the high Bee Fee. This level is not only a problem faced by all miners in the entire network, but also a dilemma for the scale growth of Filecoin. Can it proceed smoothly in the future? The author believes that there are two ideas to optimize this part: through proposals, some non-renewable computing power can be turned into renewable computing power; reduce the cost of computing power growth mortgage and Base Fee. PS: Some of the above data contain predictive analysis and the situation of the entire network is changing at any time. The above content is for research and analysis only and does not constitute investment advice. |
