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Since September last year, graphics cards have not only been in short supply, but also started to rise sharply in price, including the newly released Nvidia RTX 30 series and AMD RX 6000 series graphics cards. Adding a few thousand yuan to the price is just basic operation. At the same time, many old cards such as the previous RTX 20 series, GTX 16 series, RX 5000 series have returned to the original price, or even exceeded the original price, making players who want to DIY miserable. Many players are lamenting when they can buy cheap graphics cards, so today I will briefly talk about this matter. Of course, first of all, we still need to know why graphics cards are so expensive.
Supply and demand are the main reasons. The rise of the "mining industry" has exacerbated price increases and shortages. When it comes to the shortage and price increase of graphics cards, many people will definitely think that it is because of the continued rise of virtual currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, which has led to the resurgence of the "mining industry". I think this is an important influencing factor, but it is not the root cause. The root cause is that the global epidemic has led to insufficient supply of upstream raw materials and insufficient chip production capacity. This situation has occurred in the semiconductor industry since the second half of last year, and it has continued to this day, and has even spread to other fields such as mobile phones and automobiles.
GPU chip production capacity is insufficient, so the total number of graphics cards that can be produced is relatively small. This year, both NVIDIA and AMD's new graphics cards have been upgraded significantly. Judging from the selling price alone, it can be said that the quantity has increased without increasing the price, or even reduced. In order to cope with game upgrades and get a better gaming experience, the number of gamers who want to buy new graphics cards will not decrease. This has resulted in strong market demand, but very insufficient supply, which has created a large gap between supply and demand.
At the same time, the prices of virtual currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have been rising rapidly since last year, making many people eye this market again. As the saying goes, "If you want to do your work well, you must first sharpen your tools." If you want to "mine" well, you must use the "shovel" well. Mining bosses have set their sights on the RTX 30 series graphics cards, which have a very big upgrade in performance compared to the previous generation, with more powerful computing power and higher mining income. Many "mining bosses" began to scramble for RTX 30 series graphics cards, and the gap between supply and demand has further widened, and the premium space has also become larger.
The "mine bosses" are wealthy and powerful. If they can't get the graphics cards at the original price, they will buy them at a high price, or directly increase the price to get the goods, adding 1,000, 2,000, or even doubling the price. They will buy new and old graphics cards. Many users who don't have rigid needs will also join the army to grab graphics cards and make a small profit by reselling them. The temptation of a few thousand yuan is still very great, which increases the difficulty for players who really need them. For the "mine bosses", this only slows down the payback period. The profit from mining is continuous in the current market, and second-hand graphics cards also have a certain value. Even if the market collapses, they can still sell the cards to "recover their losses." As a sales merchant, if the official price increases, there will be a premium space if there is a shortage of goods. How much the price will increase in the end depends mainly on how much the "mine boss" charges. It can be sold at a "reasonable" price, and it is not important whether ordinary users accept it or not. Bitcoin price trend (as of 10:00 on March 10, 2021) Ethereum price trend (as of 10:00 on March 10, 2021)
But for ordinary players who want to play games, such a premium is unacceptable, and even if they can afford it financially, they may not be able to cross this hurdle psychologically. The launch price is only 2500, but now it costs 5000+. It is meaningless to spend this money. They silently pray in their hearts that the "mining disaster" will come soon, and then choose to continue waiting. The occasional cheap goods released by OEM manufacturers are also a drop in the bucket in the face of current demand. Although AMD's RX 6000 series graphics cards are not as powerful as the RTX 30 series in mining, and are not so popular with mining bosses, the supply of various models since their release is also average. If you want to buy a slightly lower price, you either have to make an appointment to buy it, or it is out of stock and hanging there. The price of the goods is high, which is also difficult to buy.
There has been a very obvious supply and demand imbalance for graphics cards this year. Since supply is less than demand, the product itself will have a certain premium, and the "mining bosses" who increase the price and rush to buy have further aggravated the shortage of products and the premium of the products. The surging "mining tide" directly swept away the graphics cards that should have belonged to the majority of game players.
Professional mining cards are difficult to "save the market" and banning "mining" is not realistic. Faced with the continued shortage of graphics cards and the problem that ordinary players cannot buy them, NVIDIA and AMD actually don't have any good solutions. They just sell graphics cards, and it is up to consumers to play games or mine after buying them. They cannot control the use of the sold graphics cards, and there is no need to do so. After all, they will not lose money if anyone buys the cards.
However, NVIDIA and AMD still tried their best to think of some solutions for the majority of players, such as launching related graphics cards for "mining". At present, NVIDIA has launched CMP graphics cards, which adopt the previous old architecture, including four different models of 30HX, 40HX, 50HX, and 90HX, which will be available at the end of this quarter. Although the computing power is average and the power consumption is not low, it is said to be very cheap, and the highest-end model is only $600. AMD should be on the way, with the same old architecture and low price. In addition to professional mining cards, NVIDIA also limits the mining efficiency of RTX 3060 through drivers. When it is detected that RTX 3060 is running the specific properties of the Ethereum cryptocurrency mining algorithm, the hash rate or cryptocurrency mining efficiency will be limited to about 50%. However, only RTX 3060 is subject to this restriction, and other products are not yet.
In my opinion, these methods will not play a significant role. With the emergence of cheap and easy-to-use mining cards, mining bosses will let go of other graphics cards. It is obvious that "only children make choices, and adults want them all". As for the driver, even if Nvidia and AMD can limit the mining efficiency of graphics cards through subsequent driver updates, it is completely possible to mine with old drivers, and if one of the coins is limited, other coins can be mined. It is not realistic to ban all coins. Both methods are like standing up to show that they are trying hard to tell players who need graphics cards. In fact, there is no practical effect. Besides, selling mining cards can also clear inventory and make a small profit. Production capacity and "mining disasters" are both key factors. Graphics card prices are unlikely to collapse . Then someone will definitely ask: When can we buy cheap graphics cards? Although I can't give an exact time, in my opinion, this time depends on two key factors: the recovery of production capacity and the arrival of "mining disasters". The lack of either of them will make this time later.
If the production capacity of graphics card chips is restored and the supply volume increases, the circulation of graphics cards in the market will increase. In theory, the price of graphics cards should indeed drop, but the "mining disaster" has not come, and the profit of "mining" is still very high. The "mine bosses" will still purchase a large number of graphics cards to "mine". The production capacity is gradually restored, and the number of graphics cards that can be purchased by ordinary players is still limited at the beginning. It is certainly difficult for the price to return to the issue price all at once. When the production capacity gradually exceeds the demand of "mine bosses" + ordinary users, the price can gradually recover.
And if a "mining disaster" occurs, and the cost of "mining" is obviously higher than the income and difficult to recover, the "mine bosses" may start selling graphics cards to "recover blood", but you must know that if the graphics card production capacity has not been restored, the circulation of new graphics cards on the market will still be very small, and the overall demand may still be greater than the supply. The prices of graphics cards in the new and second-hand markets will not dive directly, but will gradually decline.
Therefore, if we want graphics cards to recover quickly and be affordable to ordinary users, we need to restore chip supply as soon as possible, and increase the supply of graphics cards first. At the same time, when the "mining disaster" comes, the cost of mining is obviously greater than the profit of virtual currency, and the "mining bosses" are no longer generous, and the supply and demand are gradually balanced. At present, the global epidemic is moving in a good direction, but production capacity needs to be gradually restored, which still takes a long time. The current demand for chips is still greater than the supply, which is definitely impossible to solve in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, it will be the peak sales season, and the demand for chips will be even greater, so the chip supply problem this year may be difficult to solve. Mainstream coin prices (as of 10:00 on March 10, 2021)
As a digital editor, I do not have a very deep understanding and knowledge of the encrypted digital currency market. However, judging from the fact that many companies have entered into the investment in such currencies, the overall situation of this market is still quite good. Although Bitcoin fell from more than 50,000 to more than 40,000 a while ago, it was only 5,000 to 6,000 US dollars a year ago and 10,000 US dollars half a year ago. It has been on the rise recently and has returned to more than 50,000 US dollars. Ethereum has risen from 300 to 400 US dollars last year to nearly 2,000 US dollars. It is currently priced at more than 1,800 US dollars. Other mainstream cryptocurrencies have also been on the rise recently. I really can’t guess when the "mining accident" will come.
To be optimistic, I think that from the end of the second half of this year, as the epidemic gradually stabilizes and production capacity is restored to a certain extent, there should be more graphics cards released at the original price (the kind that needs to be snatched up), and the probability of further price increases will not be very high. Now there is no market for them, and we have to hope that the "mining disaster" will come sooner, so that we should be able to buy cheap graphics cards in 2022. (Tianji.com)
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