Hello everyone, I am God K. I only like to study K-line. My friends call me “K-line maniac” and you can call me Lao K.
Bitcoin's recent routine is very magical. It uses Ethereum to suppress the rhythm so as not to produce a big positive line, but this suppressive force will become weaker and weaker as the price gets closer to the previous high. However, there are many possibilities for the amplitude of this big positive line. We just need to wait patiently. The news is still uninteresting, or maybe it’s because I’m too lazy and go straight to the technical analysis stage. After the 75710 market pattern was established, Bitcoin has been playing in the mud, slowly moving upward, and the broken Yang line is dawdling. However, this kind of broken Yang line is almost at its limit, and the next big Yang line may appear at any time, but the amplitude is uncertain, and there are many ways to play. Let’s first look at the patterns of the past few days: It can be seen that in this period of market, the daily fluctuations are between 4-10%, and the high and low points are rising simultaneously. So from this simple perspective, if you are operating short-term, whether it is contracts or spot, and you care about short-term fluctuations and losses, you can go long or buy close to the low point of the previous trading day and use it as a stop loss. In terms of time, the overall gameplay is playing snake during the day and doing real trends at night: The reason why there is such a trend of playing in the mud during the day and doing serious work at night is inseparable from Li Ge's intention. This trend makes people dare not enter the market even if they look at it during the day - the amplitude of the positive line is fragmented, and one negative line destroys all expectations; there are relatively few traders at night - you can't see the pull-up, and when you wake up in the morning to chase the rise, you will enter the snake time and short-term trap. This rhythm difference is very tormenting for short-term traders, resulting in short-term traders' buying orders being not heavy at all. This trend has appeared before. What Lao K remembers most is that the trend after the 6,300 US dollars in 2019 was this kind of daytime fluctuation and late rise. From another perspective, this difference can be understood as Asian investors are cautious and conservative, while European and American investors are relatively more optimistic about the market, so there are more fluctuations and pullbacks during the day and more rises at night. Since the broken Yang has reached the level of 7 consecutive Yang, and it is only about 200 US dollars away from the previous high of 58326 US dollars, so at this relatively critical node, Li Ge can choose a big Yang breakthrough. At least from the previous trend, the big Yang breakthrough is the main one: It can be seen from this that at critical moments, Brother Li always chose a big sun to break through the previous high, so this method may continue here, but it is not certain, because the previous positions were actually relatively low, and the position here is relatively high. The method can be the same or the routine can be changed. It depends on how Brother Li plays it. In my opinion, if the market chooses to break through with a big positive, it means that it can only accelerate further, or use a higher position of relative oscillation or slow rise to follow the subsequent path, which will cause a certain imbalance in time and space. A better way is to continue this broken positive mode. Let's do a simple simulation, several ways: If we take the yellow acceleration path, because we have broken through an upward channel since $9,834, and the oscillation adjustment time is shortened here, even if the subsequent oscillation time is higher, it cannot exceed here. Therefore, the time will definitely be compressed. Now is the first quarter of 2021, it is still early, and there is a lot of time waiting to be wasted. Therefore, I personally am not very optimistic about this yellow big sun acceleration path. The white broken Yang path can waste a lot of time, and it can also create an illusion that the market is unstable and the new high is not strong. At the same time, we observed that the previous upward segments of the white arrows actually have an upward arc. The hand-drawn lines in the above picture, oops, I forgot to pull the last one to the white arrow, sorry - - Then since we have to shake some people here, we will do a full show. The arc is changed from the previous upward bend to a downward bend, and then the shape is similar to an arc, giving people a strong expectation of an arc top. At the same time, because of the strength of this new high, this expectation of an arc top will become extremely strong, and the washing effect should be excellent. Then, using the panic effect of the market, plus the small fluctuations during the broken Yang period, a Yang line reverses the shape and accelerates to the 10-digit head, which should be the best choice and method. Of course, this is just a personal deduction, and it may not come true, but the probability is relatively high. Because of this trend, there are a lot of disagreements during community interaction, and the long and short positions quarrel every day. So will the "one negative ruins all" that many people are worried about happen? For example, the 312 anniversary, the 315 party, and other potential "bad news" are scary. Is it actually necessary to be afraid? Not necessary. Let's briefly explain why. First, the market sentiment is different. On March 12, 2020, the epidemic had just fermented and ushered in a major outbreak. Every day on the Internet, there were reports of how many more infected people in XX places and XX countries had been infected. At that time, the economic outlook under the influence of the epidemic was very pessimistic. The global financial market was in a state of panic. Even the stock god Buffett said that this was the first time in his life, sorry, the second time, um, the third time, the fourth time I saw the U.S. stock market circuit breaker. You can imagine the seriousness of the situation. This seriousness actually reflects the fear of the unknown. Now, various vaccines have been started, social order has been gradually restored, and tensions have been greatly relieved. Speaking of this, I have to give a thumbs up to my great China. During this epidemic, our happiness index ranks first in the world. Second, the funding situation is different. Last year, due to the impact of the epidemic, everyone was thinking about living a hard life, and the capital withdrawal effect was relatively strong. For example, those who have done futures in the traditional financial market, or other bullish products or have layouts, have to find ways to mobilize funds from other markets to save themselves. At that time, the price of Bitcoin was not high or low, and it was normal for funds to be withdrawn and returned. The other part is based on the sharp drop in the traditional market. Bitcoin is also part of the financial market. The demonstration effect is there, and it is normal to run away. At the very least, it is understandable to sell some coins and store some milk powder. After all, no matter how hard it is, you can't let your children suffer. Now, despite a sharp drop in the traditional financial market, the capital side is not only not tight but also very loose. The United States printed a lot of money during the epidemic, and the total amount exceeded the total amount of currency issued in the past 20 years. This Friday, which is early this morning Beijing time, Biden will also sign a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan, and the capital shortage is no longer there. As for the technical aspects, I won’t analyze them. I will just show you two indicators: There are two indicators in the above picture. One is MACD. The golden cross near the 0 axis is an effective golden cross. Air Force, please read with me: Ji Yi En Jin, Chi Yi A Cha, Golden Cross. Another indicator is the Williams indicator (WR). I usually don’t use it on the PC. I use it on the mobile phone but I don’t pay much attention to it. I only use it to judge the market turning point. This indicator value moves between -100-0. If it falls below -80, it is an adjustment to dig a pit (it may deviate from the decline), and if it enters above -20, it is a pull-up rebound (it may deviate from the rise). The current value is -17. The indicator does not support a sharp drop. So, if investors are emotionally stable and have money on hand, there is no chance of a repeat of 312. Instead, we should pay attention to the retaliatory pull of the bulls. Weren’t you very capable in the 312 bears last year? Look, I will kill you this year. Of course, in fact, the bulls have been chasing the bears for the whole year, so whether there is a revenge on 312 this year is actually not very meaningful, and it is easy to disrupt the normal trend of the market and cause time and space imbalance. If you ask me, the bulls, let the air force go, it is better to resolve the enemy than to make it. Besides, the current bulls may not have been air forces back then. We are actually a group of profit-seekers. Wouldn’t it be better to unite and bully retail investors? Of course, retail investors are not so easy to bully now, especially the readers of Lao K. So, forget it. In terms of 4-hour BTC pattern: It can be clearly seen from the above figure that the upper track of the purple channel has not been broken since the rebound from 43,000 US dollars, and it has formed a resonance suppression with the previous high of 58,326 US dollars, so it is normal to have a callback. The 4-hour pattern is currently a yin-yang parallel pattern, which is a short-term adjustment. Combined with the snake-playing path analyzed above during the day, the market is not expected to do much during the day today. But is there a big drop? Theoretically, there is no. Still looking at the above picture, the support below is the orange line (the previous article talked about the super big pear, after breaking through the market into a super big channel), yesterday afternoon, it stepped back to this line and did not break the rebound, about 54200 US dollars. And there is a stronger support below, 53000 US dollars, it is not easy to fall below. Even if from the perspective of the moving average, the 4-hour yellow and white second line support is weak and there is a need to pull back to the purple moving average, it will not directly step back because of the above-mentioned strong support factors of 53000-54000 US dollars, but will consume time waiting for the purple moving average to rise. So don't worry about the big drop, just consume some time and be more patient. As for the M top and double top that many investors in the market think, just laugh it off. We wait patiently for our 75710 mode to be realized, and don't take other things. That’s all for today. I wish you all a smooth investment. I am Pixiu K and will continue to be Pixiu. See you tomorrow. |
