Bitcoin was pushed down to the price levels seen on March 25, and Ethereum briefly fell below $2,000. Other digital assets such as Cardano, Binance Coin, and Chainlink also saw a pullback, but we have to consider the market situation for Dogecoin. Dogecoin has not seen any major corrections in the past day. After a 300% rally, the drop from $0.45 to $0.24 was relatively cautious and slow. The chart above clearly shows its disconnect from other digital assets in the market, which is rare for the current cryptocurrency rally based on sentiment rather than fundamentals, however, the question remains, can Dogecoin hold up? Then we have to discuss the fundamentals of Dogecoin. Data from InTheBlock indicates that while 64k addresses purchased 16 billion Dogecoin at prices between $0.305 and $0.310, addresses that purchased Dogecoin at $0.25 to $0.31 are currently out of funds. These specific addresses are currently underfunded and may provide some resistance to current price action. However, as we mentioned before, most addresses that bought Dogecoin before April 12 or bought it at less than $0.065 are profitable (i.e. 3.39 million addresses), which increases the possibility that the current hoard exceeds the current price range. Dogecoin's network hash rate has increased from 179/s on October 19, 2020 to 293/s on April 15, 2021, which means that the stability and security of the network are constantly improving. The chart below points out where fundamentals are taking a hit when Dogecoin’s actual price action is evaluated. Considering Dogecoin’s last rally in the first week of February, the growth rate was close to 1100% over time. Dogecoin went through a proper correction phase, with the asset price falling to the 0.50 Fibonacci line, which is generally considered a reasonable buying range for any asset. As of early April, Dogecoin was consolidating within this range and established a solid support range of $0.0473 to $0.0568. Now, any asset that is aligned with market fundamentals will see a maximum gain of 2x from the previous rally and will likely consolidate before the next rally. The expected price of Dogecoin was $0.14. However, Dogecoin broke the market rules and exceeded the expected top by 167%. This is what happened to some assets in 2017, which also helped Dogecoin's popularity soar. Fundamentals don't explain current prices but the market doesn't care because money is flowing into their pockets. So what’s so special about April 20? Twitter is abuzz with Dogecoin owners coming together to potentially boost the coin on April 20, as people believe that Dogecoin may reflect market sentiment better than any other digital asset. Dogecoin 4/20 has seen massive traction over the past day and the “moon smash” stats speak for themselves. Currently, Dogecoin’s social participation rate is 931% and its social dominance is over 536%. Considering that Elon Musk has not tweeted anything about Dogecoin in the past week, the market sentiment of Dogecoin is beyond expectations. A week ago, a reasonable market study pointed out that Dogecoin’s current price situation was ridiculous. However, as explained earlier, the community’s control over Dogecoin far outweighs the fundamentals at this point, and while investing in this asset may still be highly risky, the rewards are achievable for the courageous trader. |
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