Is it a bear market now? Listen to what Twitter KOLs say

Has the cryptocurrency sector, led by Bitcoin, entered a true bear market? KOLs on Twitter have different opinions.

On June 22, Bitcoin fell below the $30,000 mark again, with a 24-hour drop of more than 11% and a loss of $10,000 in a week.

According to incomplete statistics, more than 25 million US dollars were liquidated in DeFi protocols in the past 24 hours, which is 7 times the previous day.

With the tightening of domestic regulatory policies and the sluggish global economic environment, the market performance of Bitcoin has repeatedly hit a group of "believers". So, has the cryptocurrency field led by Bitcoin entered a real bear market? KOLs on Twitter have different opinions.

PlanB, who has been claiming that Bitcoin will reach $1 million since the last bull market, has always been a firm believer. He said that neither Musk's previous tweets nor China's policy negatives were the root causes of the big correction that lasted more than a month. He still believes that the bull market is still going on and this is just a healthy correction in the market.

Based on the S2F (Stock-to-flow) model he has always advocated, he judged that Bitcoin will surge in the fourth quarter of 2021 and eventually reach US$135,000.

The S2F model assumes that the scarcity of Bitcoin drives price growth, and the ratio is defined as the ratio of the current inventory of goods to the new output value. Although this ratio has been criticized in many aspects, the price of Bitcoin has historically obeyed the S2F ratio, which is one of the reasons why many analysts still agree with this model.

Another person who is bullish in the long term is Larry Cermak, research director of The Block. He said that although he is not a trader and cannot judge whether we have entered a bear market, the current general trend in the encryption field is correct and DeFi will also flourish.

Quantitative analyst Willy Woo directly released data saying that according to the spent output profit rate SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) provided by Glassnode, Bitcoin has indeed entered a period of correction, and now is the time to buy the dip.

The SOPR indicator is a measure of the overall profit or loss of Bitcoin. A ratio of 1 indicates that the weak hands have exited the market, which means there is a clear upward signal. This indicator shows that selling at a price below the current Bitcoin price may mean a paper loss, so few investors are willing to accept this price.

Analyst Lark Davis also stated with pictures and text that judging from the 200-week moving average, the market will never reach the peak of the bull market without reaching the hot zone in the figure below.

Analysts John Wick and William Clement gave the current relative strength index RSI (Relative Strength Index) to support their belief that this indicator is the best indicator for judging that the current market is still a bull market.

It is understood that the relative strength index (RSI) is a technical curve made based on the ratio of the sum of rising points and falling points in a certain period of time, which can reflect the market's prosperity in a certain period of time.

Li Qiyuan said on Twitter that he still holds his view: like in 2013, Bitcoin will have a double peak this year, the first in April and the second in December. His twin brother, "King of Escape from the Top" Li Qiwei, also said in a recent interview that the market is still in a bull market, but it is just a big correction.

It is worth noting that since the bull market started in 2020, there have been almost no bearish voices overseas so far. Even if there are any, they are just panic about a short-term market plunge.

On the contrary, due to the tightening of domestic regulatory policies on Bitcoin mining and trading, some domestic KOLs are relatively pessimistic.

For example, Dovey Wan has been frequently updating domestic regulatory actions and analysis recently. She is seriously pessimistic about the negative impact of this regulation in the short term, but optimistic in the long term.

Jiang Zhuoer also said that this round of bull market has not yet reached its peak, but has formed an unprecedented arc top. It may be a short bear market, or it may form a double top pattern similar to that in 2013.

Our crypto influencer Miss Molly is completely lost, but like us, she certainly hopes that the second half of the bull market will continue.

Yearn's core developer banteg also expressed his views on the market fluctuations in recent weeks. He said self-deprecatingly: "Whether it is a bull market or a bear market, our development speed is as slow as a crab." After the tweet was sent, Yearn's founder Andre Cronje also liked it immediately.

Crypto KOLs, who used to speak in a playful style, joined in the fun and told jokes. The "Wolf of Wall Street" also said that he has returned to life: "Whether it is a bull market or a bear market, I have started building a small tactical support airport for my children!"

However, as I said before, people in the market game will always tirelessly analyze and dissect the market from various angles. In order to keep up with the pace of the market, referring to various indicators is often the most efficient way. Use leading indicators to predict the market, and refer to synchronous and lagging indicators to verify market changes.

Compared with lagging indicators and coincident indicators, people are more interested in leading indicators that predict market trends one step ahead. Leading indicators tend to transcend economic cycles and are usually suitable for short-term and medium-term cycle analysis. In traditional markets, people often come into contact with two types of leading indicators: macroeconomic leading indicators used for fundamental analysis and indicators used for technical analysis.

Generally, stock indexes, interest rates and government bond yields are widely regarded as very effective leading indicators for judging macroeconomic trends in traditional financial markets. As Bitcoin is embraced by more and more Wall Street institutions, the correlation between such indicators and the encryption field will become stronger and stronger.

Therefore, in a sense, the cryptocurrency market and the traditional financial market will be linked in the future. In the crypto market, investors can not only judge the impact of economic trends of various countries on crypto assets through the monetary and fiscal policies of various countries, but also judge the flow of funds by observing macroeconomic indicators, and can also judge price trends through technical indicators of on-site transactions. Data shows that the lending rates of stablecoins and the basis and funding rates of derivatives in the crypto market are very effective leading indicators.

However, indicators are only indicators after all, and they are only a static basis for our judgment. However, the market is changing rapidly. Only by maintaining a good attitude, constantly improving the level of cognition, and adding years of practical experience can we make more wise decisions. Whether you trade based on indicators or adhere to the concept of value investment, do not act too hastily, stay rational, and control risks within the tolerance range, which is the basic quality of an investor.