This article was originally written by IPFS Force Zone On January 22, according to the Delaware company registration website, Grayscale has established a new trust company. In addition to the earliest disclosed Grayscale FIL Trust, there are 5 other currencies, namely XTZ, MANA, LINK, LPT, and BAT. Grayscale adds 6 new trust products, source: Grayscale, 2021-1-01 Two of the six projects are related to distributed storage. FIL is currently the world's largest distributed storage project, and LPT (Livepeer) is a distributed video live broadcast platform based on Filecoin storage. With so many positive news, why is FIL still "as stable as a mountain"? The author believes that the logic behind it is somewhat similar to rebase. Why is it so stable? And what opportunities do investors see in the stable unit price? How to find the best investment target? The following analysis. 1. Current Status of Filecoin: FIL’s Rebase-like Features The stable price of Filecoin reminds people of the rebase mechanism, which is an elastic supply mechanism with no upper limit on the total amount of such tokens. When the price of the token falls, the supply will decrease, reducing the selling pressure; when the price of such tokens rises, the supply will increase, increasing the selling pressure, and this design method is used to strictly control the stability of the price. This aspect is similar to Filecoin, but the difference is that the rebase mechanism is a rule designed by the smart contract, while Filecoin is a rule set by the token. Reabse project overview, source: PAData, 2020-12 The similarities between Filecoin token and rebase mechanism are: The Rebase mechanism and the internal circulation of Filecoin miners. The deflation or inflation of the Rebase mechanism is set by the smart contract, and Filecoin is determined by the market. Once the market price falls, miners are likely to choose to buy, resulting in an increase in buying, an increase in mortgage computing power, and a decrease in deflation; when the price rises, holders are likely to sell for arbitrage, and the price will fall relatively; Rebase mechanism and gas fee. Once the base fee of FIL drops, the computing power will increase, the base fee will rise accordingly, and the computing power will grow slowly. Or if the amount of FIL gas is stable, but the unit price of FIL increases, it will also inhibit the growth of computing power; Rebase mechanism and Filecoin lending. Lending also affects prices. The loanable part can be understood as the locked secondary market part, and the interest income will incentivize the circulation of this part. When the market is tight, higher interest rates will attract this part to circulate in the market and expand the currency; when the market is loose, the market is not tight, and not a large part will circulate in the market, and the free market will achieve good self-circulation.
The Rabase mechanism is mainly set by rules, while Filecoin relies on market behavior to ensure the stability of FIL prices. Relatively speaking, rules are more reliable than the market. Although the market's profit-seeking behavior will maintain the unit price well, it will also be affected by black swans and break the balance. Entropy is stable. In an internal circulation system, objects will form an entropy value (fixed value) with various changes. The same is true for the Filecoin ecosystem. This entropy may be disrupted but quickly restored. So how will the fixed entropy value change? Physical mentions can increase energy or absorption capacity, and the entropy value will change accordingly due to energy changes. Therefore, when Filecoin obtains a lot of external energy (capital injection or ecological establishment), its entropy value (narrowly understood as FIL price) will be greatly increased. It is precisely because of FIL's stable unit price that many traditional investment institutions have entered the market. Because traditional investments tend to have predictable and stable returns, the violent fluctuations of FIL will affect their judgment of returns. So, faced with numerous and complex investment indicators, what aspects of operation and maintenance should traditional investment institutions focus on when establishing mining pools/mining farms or purchasing computing power/mining machines? 2. What points should mining operation and maintenance focus on? For institutional investors, what they can directly understand at present is the cost per T, daily mining income per T, management sharing fees and reputation, as well as some operation and maintenance strategy guidance. 1. Expenditure: Reasonable cost per T Currently, the investment targets include cloud computing power, mining machines, mining farms and mining pools, and most of the investment amounts are over hundreds of thousands. For the calculation of the cost per T, we need to pay attention to three points: The investment cycle needs to consider the factor of monetary inflation. Investors generally compare the cost per T of each company, the number of years that can be mined, and so on. Some manufacturers will advertise that they can participate in mining for several years or even decades, so the cost per T per year may be as low as a few hundred yuan. Such publicity can easily lead investors into a misunderstanding, because Filecoin investment is different from real estate investment. The former can realize cash when the price is right, and quickly realizing profits is a relatively successful investment, outperforming the annual inflation of 10%. The latter is mainly of practical value, and there is no urgent need for cash; Taking the reasonable price range as the reference price, the investment of single T computing power can refer to the reasonable price range in the market. If the price is too high or too low, it needs to be considered carefully. If the price is too high, there may be too many middlemen, and if the price is too low, it may be due to the limited node operation and maintenance level, resulting in low returns. For the reasonable range, the C-end and B-end (independent node investors) have different price ranges because of their different scales of investment; The pre- and post-processing fees are used to spread the cost of a single T in disguise. If the direct cost of a single T is high, the proportion of post-processing mining income may be low, and vice versa. This depends on the investor's cash flow turnover and how they view the medium- and long-term price trend of FIL.
2. Income: Daily single T mining income needs reasonable judgment The daily single T mining income is reasonable as a basis, and high income requires judgment. FIL/T/day will have a reasonable range at a certain stage (currently around 0.13), and better manufacturers will generally exceed this value, but it is difficult for investors to see this value at a glance. The main reasons are: FIL/T/day has always been a controversial topic. Some browsers will show that there will be errors in the calculation of a certain manufacturer's mining efficiency, and the result will be that if there is no computing power growth, it may be too high, and if there is a computing power growth, it will be too low. For example: A and B are both 1000T in scale. Assuming that on a certain day, the income is about 130 FIL (B may be higher), and A did not increase the computing power on that day, and B increased the computing power by 100T on that day, then at this moment A's mining efficiency = 130/1000 = 0.13FIL/T/day, B's mining efficiency = 130/(1000+100) = 0.118FIL/T/day. In this way, it is actually difficult to see the difference between the two. The author believes that the actual calculation should be refined to each high degree of calculus calculation to be reasonable. Therefore, for investors, it is more reasonable to calculate by themselves, or observe the FIL/T/day of a certain miner in the browser over a long period of time based on the growth of computing power. 3. Expenses: Management expenses: 15-30% For C-end investors, the lower the management service fee is, the better, with the same cost performance; for B-end investors, they mainly use asset liquidity and price judgment as a reference to hedge risks. If B-end investors are optimistic about FIL in the long term, they can choose to pay more fees in the early stage and reduce the management fee in the later stage; conversely, they can reduce the upfront fees and increase the management fee in the later stage, and share the risks with the operation and maintenance service providers. 4. Manufacturer reputation requires understanding of its essence Investors can learn about service providers through external publicity, cooperation or face-to-face contact. Currently, service providers on the market are mainly divided into technical and market providers. The bias of publicity cannot be used as a standard to measure the service level of providers. At the same time, the development of the blockchain industry is still in its early stages and there are many uncertainties. We must learn to deeply understand the essence behind PR in order to be responsible for investment. In addition, B-side investors also need corresponding operation and maintenance strategy guidance to adjust their computing power growth strategies according to market conditions. 5. Operation and maintenance strategy guidance: maximizing benefits In addition to basic operation and maintenance work, operation and maintenance strategy guidance mainly includes: computing power growth and rectification suggestions, upgrade suggestions, penalty avoidance strategies and network maintenance, etc. The main purpose of operation and maintenance strategy guidance is to safely ensure the maximum efficiency of hardware and adjust the computing power planning according to the situation of the network. At present, the main issues that need to be addressed are computing power penalties, gas fee rectification strategies and reducing the orphan block rate, which are generally considered by independent node investors. The computing power penalty is to provide optimization suggestions to reduce the probability of penalty, such as file backup and recovery, information packaging gas fee proofreading, etc., to reduce the expenditure of additional fees as much as possible; The Gas fee rectification strategy is mainly to propose some rectification plans for investors based on the current status of Gas, so as to minimize the expenditure and complete the task of computing power growth; The orphan block rate can be reduced mainly through software and operation and maintenance strategies to ensure operational stability and minimize the orphan block rate.
3. The Filecoin investment window is gradually narrowing, but institutional advantages remain The operation and maintenance of Filecoin network and equipment has gradually matured, and the window for participation will gradually narrow in the future, but the advantages of institutional participation are still obvious. This is because institutions can better adjust their development strategies and configure corresponding hardware equipment according to the development of Filecoin. At the same time, storage can be well contributed to the construction of Web 3.0 as a medium- and long-term development capital. However, there are many reference indicators on the market that are dazzling, and the above are the core indicators sorted out by the author, which can well assist traditional investment institutions in judging the manufacturer's operation and maintenance capabilities and facilitate the screening of the most suitable investment targets. PS: The above projects are for research sharing only and are not used as investment references. Statement: This article is an original article from IPFS Force District. The copyright belongs to IPFS Force District. It may not be reproduced without authorization. Violators will be held accountable according to law.
Tip: Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market. This article is not intended as investment and financial advice.
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