The trick to being a great venture capitalist is to be non-consensus and correct. Multicoin Capital is a perfect example of this. In the second part of our three-part series, we will explore how the fund sticks to fundamentals and stays disciplined. If you have just a few minutes to spare, here’s what investors, operators, and founders should know about how to discover and invest in Multicoin Capital.
Every venture capitalist wants to be a contrarian. Yet if you’re wrong, you don’t make money. Since the distribution of venture capital is skewed, it’s not enough to be right — you have to be right about things that others laugh at or ignore. Only those opportunities will generate enough dislocation in value to result in outsize returns. Multicoin Capital embodies this. Not only is it right, it is right in the face of massive naysayers. Few companies are willing to stick with their beliefs so foolishly for so long. How does Multicoin do this? What does it mean to run a truly contrarian fund? What factors allow the investment team to so reliably find and invest in those out-of-the-box winners? In today’s article, we’ll explore the Multicoin investment process from start to finish, including:
Step 1: Form a theory Of the various ways you might compare venture capitalists, the most persuasive is to position them between “opportunistic” and “theory-driven.” Opportunists believe that radical innovation is unpredictable. Recognizing this ignorance, the best approach is to seek out visionary entrepreneurs who have a clearer view of the future. The most basic posture is reactive and receptive: you are eager to be shocked by your own ingenuity and are willing to evaluate what comes before you. As Multicoin co-founder Tushar Jain describes it, it's not unlike "swiping on Tinder." Theory-driven investors take a different approach. By studying a particular market or trend, they commit to a particular perspective they believe is predictive. Once codified, theory-driven capitalists look for investments that fit their mental model. Investors hope that by forming a perspective, they will have a better idea of where to start and what factors to prioritize. Between the two poles lies a vast grey area: opportunistic financiers may prioritize certain sectors over others, while even the most theory-driven capitalists must exercise a degree of flexibility. Multicoin Capital is at one extreme. As Jain puts it, “We started with theory. A lot of investors say that, but we take an extreme form of it.” In fact, Jain emphasizes that the company’s priority is developing an investment plan, not finding investments: I often joke with our investment team that their job is not to find good investments. I don't care if they find good investments. I want them to find good theories. And we can monetize their theories through investments. Jain argues that this framing is fundamentally pragmatic: “The people who form these opinions are more valuable than the people who find investment opportunities. Knowing what is true is more important.” Multicoin’s final argument begins with this question: “What is real?” Remarkably, this is true for both hedge funds and venture capital — the company operates as a single team, executing a consistent strategy across investment vehicles. In our conversation, Samani and Jain walked me through how they built a new perspective for Multicoin. First, they identify a promising market. This can start at a high level — for example, picking something like “DAO” as a starting point — before branching out to a narrower topic. Once a space is chosen, Multicoin begins trying to understand the “dimensions” and “design decisions” within the space. How would different teams approach a related opportunity? Why would they use a specific technology stack over another? What choices and concessions do they need to make? According to Jain, figuring out the tradeoffs is extremely important: That's helpful because when you're operating at the edge of what's possible, there's usually no right answer. It's a trade-off. You say, "Oh, I'm going to design it in X way, but you're going to lose Y." Once mapped out, Multicoin focuses on the most exciting elements of the design space, looking for "big, meaningful bets." While this may sound like a trivial addition, it's crucial to understanding Multicoin's strategy. The company explicitly doesn't want to make a fuss about one particular market or business model. "We don't like to say, 'Play to Earn is fun, so let's invest in a play to earn company in India, the Philippines, and Argentina,'" said co-founder Kyle Samani. "If we're going to be in a competitive market, we want to be very, very clear about why the teams we invest in are taking a unique approach, building structural moats, and ultimately generating returns at scale." Here, the commitment to precision is one of the key strategic differences between Multicoin and a fund like Tiger. While both are theory-driven, Tiger focuses on macro trends; when it finds an approach it believes works, it iteratively invests in different markets. Multicoin is more surgical. You can get an idea of how this is happening by studying Multicoin’s writing. For example, in late 2020, it published “Tradeoffs In the Decentralized FTX Space.” The article, written by Tushar Jain and Spencer Applebaum, outlines the opportunity for a “decentralized FTX” to emerge and discusses the pros and cons of different approaches. Jain and Applebaum highlight 10 features that decentralized derivatives exchanges need, including the ability to bootstrap liquidity and the ability to achieve “moderately high” leverage. Four months after Multicoin published this article, it announced its investment in Perpetual Protocol, one of the challenges it identified. As expected, “Perp.fi” has many of the goals outlined by the team, providing deep liquidity and high leverage. In this regard, Multicoin seems to have perfected a kind of “venture presentation,” using its blog as a vision board to summon the startups it wants to see. Scrolling through its content, you’ll observe a clear direct connection between initial expositions and eventual investments. Discussions on decentralized storage evolved into investments in Arweave, while thoughts on speed and scalability led to Solana. This pattern suggests that Multicoin’s description of itself as theory-driven is far from being just talk, but is instead borne out by its established portfolio. While the fund prefers to operate with this research-first-deployment approach, it also acknowledges that there is flexibility in timing. Per Samani: We strongly prefer to invest with a theory of how the market will develop and why a certain team will win. We have also concluded that in some markets it is impossible to make such a decision with conviction. Samani estimates that about 10% of Multicoin’s investments fall into the latter category. Project Galaxy, a digital certificate provider, is one such example. Despite not having a clear view on where the market is headed, Multicoin has faith in the entrepreneur and believes the Galaxy team is pursuing a viable strategy. Step 2: Find opportunities Once Multicoin has a theory in mind, it searches for companies. Like other investment institutions, the company relies on both inward and outward investment interest. Since its inception, much of Multicoin’s efforts have been focused on growing its inward interest. From the outset, Jain and Samani understood the power of building an audience, which helped them create one of the best compilations of crypto ideas in the space. Multicoin has taken this strategy and even expanded its geographic reach. In 2020, Mable Jiang started the company’s Mandarin podcast, which she noted has become the number one crypto show in China. According to Jiang, the English version has gained listeners in Vietnam, Thailand, and Singapore. Harry Zhang, CEO of Project Galaxy, noted that he discovered the fund through their media work: “I read the research papers that the Multicoin guys put out, and they’re really great.” He added that Multicoin is “obviously” a tier-one player in the Chinese market. Multicoin doesn’t limit its audience creation to traditional media. In fact, much of its presence has been built on Twitter, where Samani is particularly active. As mentioned in last week’s article, Multicoin’s bombastic tone can be misleading to some, but it appears to be, at least in part, a calculated strategy. A version of the fund’s publicly available 2018 annual letter notes that Samani and Jain “frequently use Cunningham’s Theorem.” The maxim states, “The best way to get the right answer online is not to ask the question; instead, post the wrong answer.” Despite appearances, Multicoin’s more pointed tweets may be intended to inform the author rather than anger the reader. Samani reiterated this reading of the 2018 annual letter, saying, “A large portion of my tweets are trolling. It’s very effective.” Samani and Multicoin also appear to have toned down this approach over the past two years, a shift that other investors in the space have also noticed. A relatively new source of potential inbound traffic has emerged due to the company’s close ties to Solana. In a brilliant marketing move, the high-speed Layer 1 is creating “hacker houses” around the world. As the next generation of Solana developers build, many will naturally gravitate toward Multicoin. As you might expect, a fair portion of opportunities are acquired through external efforts. This is both passive and active. First, everyone at Multicoin is an omnivorous consumer of content, with Samani being particularly prolific. According to him, he reads for four hours every morning, starting at 6 a.m., filling the company’s Slack channel with relevant sidebars. He subscribes to a staggering number of newsletters, reading as many as 30 a day. These short messages are usually from companies he has spoken with and wants to follow, as well as the work of other investors and thinkers. Samani noted that he spends “no less than an hour a day on Twitter,” which he sees as not a waste of time, as the algorithm is effectively tuned to his tastes. Analysts and colleagues at the company may find themselves mired in Discord or Reddit in search of opportunities. Multicoin’s team honed its perspective by talking to other investors and builders. Among other venture funds, Variant and Libertus were both listed as “a handful of crypto investors with their own ideas,” Jain said. Multicoin’s GP also mentioned Gauntlet CEO Tarun Chitra as a particularly cerebral conversationalist. In addition to these efforts, Multicoin drummed up business the old-fashioned way: by hitting the road. Particularly in the early days of the fund, both partners traveled extensively to expand their network and meet with budding builders in the industry. Samani noted that in 2018 and 2019, he was on the road 120 days a year, traveling from coast to coast and continent to continent to attend conferences and hackathons. "We got to know everybody, which was really important," Samani said. Step 3: Evaluation Once investors have had a chance to evaluate, the real work begins. Due to its theory-driven roots, Multichin has a special lens through which to evaluate deals. During our discussion, Samani mentioned Marc Andreessen’s classic article The only thing that matters. In it, the a16z founder argues that between team, product, and market, investors should focus on the market. Multicoin agrees — but with a twist. Markets are important, but understanding how the market will develop is even more important. To make such an assessment, Multicoin looks at how closely a project aligns with its own view of the market. Does it have the advantageous features that Multicoin deems most important? How will it perform as the space evolves? Samani spoke about the importance of answering these questions: We spend a lot of time discussing how we think the market will develop. What do we believe, and what are the odds? The goal is to ensure that Multicoin has adequately considered the maturity of the investment and the secondary and tertiary effects that may arise from initial success or failure. This assessment appears to be central to the fund’s evaluation, and as we will discuss later, it absorbs the meetings of the investment committee. Samani said Multicoin "spent a shockingly small amount of time on the team and product" compared to market assessments. In part, this is because great entrepreneurs often have a hard time explaining the novelty of their work. "I find that most of the time, founders are unable to clearly articulate their thesis," Samani said. As mentioned in last week's article, Solana founder Anatoly Yakovenko is an example of this. Beyond these factors, the team also assessed the systemic advantages a business might have. Samani and Jain cited network effects and psychological arbitrage as interesting lenses for this evaluation. “I think most people misunderstand them,” Samani said of network effects. “Most of the time when people mention them, they’re overstated. And then there are a few times when people vastly underestimate them.” Portfolio company Helium is an example of a network effect that may still be underestimated. The performance of a decentralized wireless network increases as more nodes are added. While not a Multicoin investment, Samani pointed to PoolTogether as an example of psychological arbitrage. The protocol offers a gamified savings product: users have the opportunity to win bigger rewards by depositing money. Since this reward is generated through DeFi staking, even those who don’t win will have their money returned and receive the native token POOL for participating. The longer you keep your money in PoolTogether, the more POOL you earn — a mechanism that incentivizes saving. If a potential investment is grossly faulty, it is considered a "first-order error." What does that mean? In short, the team believes the product in question is pointless and fundamentally flawed in some way. Multichin takes this assessment seriously, with Jain describing himself and Samani as "first-order principle snobs." Multicoin’s strict adherence to this decision has resulted in it missing out on a number of high-performing investments, including Uniswap and Yearn Finance. Both projects grew from relative obscurity to enter the top 100 projects by market cap. Uniswap is a top 25 ecosystem with a fully diluted market cap of $10.6 billion. While missing out on a breakout winner might sting a bit, Multicoin doesn’t mind too much. To Samani and Jain, both projects are still level one mistakes. In the case of Uniswap, Multicoin argues that the protocol is an ineffective method of price discovery and that the fundamental mechanics of the system mean it can never increase transaction fees. “All else being equal, if Uniswap increased fees, the system would cease to work,” Samani says. “If that happened, token holders would literally be parasites on the market makers and takers.” Jain is quick to add, “You can’t have parasites in an open source system. They’d get forked.” Multicoin’s skepticism of Yearn follows similar logic, with a twist. Yearn has made it clear that it does charge fees, though Jain isn’t convinced about the permanence of that revenue. “Today people are willing to pay YFI fees,” he said, referring to Yearn’s token. “That’s clearly happening. But it’s irrational. The long arc of the market always bends toward rationality.” Such assessments don’t come without much thought and thought. In Yearn’s case, Multicoin considered the investment at least four times in a matter of months. “Now, it was a miss because we saw it at the beginning,” Jain said. “We could have owned it, we could have made a bunch of money. But I don’t mind missing out on that, and I still think we were right.” A corollary of disciplined investing is that you must be willing to miss opportunities that are inconsistent with your views. Multicoin is excellent at maintaining its control. As Jain points out, "others can make money trading." Those who fail to internalize this suffer from what Jain calls the "Gotta Catch' Em All Disease." Jain describes the symptoms as follows: There’s a fallacy that people have where they think, “This is making money, I need to get in on this.” It’s just indexing. It’s much more important to take that leap of faith and go for it than to start thinking, “I have this, I have that, if I miss this deal, my collection is incomplete.” Multicoin is OK with missing transactions. Most importantly, it wants to make sure the companies and projects it supports make sense. Step 4: Debate If an investment is deemed promising, it eventually makes its way to Multicoin’s investment committee. While many venture capital firms hold similar meetings, they are essential to Multicoin’s approach. In pursuit of well-researched, unwavering investments, Samani and Jain put new positions to the test in a process designed to expose risks and blind spots. It starts with writing, which is "the most important thing about Multicoin," said Mable Jiang. First, team members draft a document outlining their views, with a particular focus on the market and its development. Anyone can make a deal, whether they are an investor or not. "Our hierarchy is very flat," noted partner Matt Shapiro. Once the document is in place, other team members are encouraged to read and comment on it, identify loopholes, and offer different perspectives. Asynchronous debates that are brought into synchronous meetings are often heated. John Roberts Reed, partner and head of communications at the company, said: The process of making decisions is fraught with friction. Sometimes there are heated arguments. Sometimes people need to walk away or change the method of communication — from verbal to written and back to verbal. But through it all, you emerge with the most solid, battle-tested ideas. For Jain, the key to engaging in productive conversations is to “disagree often, and disagree well.” You might be wondering how to disagree well. For Multicoin, it comes down to two main factors. First, “you need to fundamentally respect the other person” and believe that they have valuable perspectives to share. Second, “you have to be curious.” Specifically, Jain noted, “You have to be willing to keep asking yourself, ‘What am I missing?’ until you get to the bottom of the problem. You just have to keep peeling back the layers.” Not all debates are resolvable. In those cases, Multicoin seeks a resolution of belief, not consensus. In the end, Jain said, it often comes down to whether the team believes the expected value of a position is likely to be positive and significant — or not. It’s a simple framework that allows for skepticism while also trusting conviction. Of course, not all decisions need to be so deliberate. Given Multicoin’s established relationship with founder Sam Bankman-Fried and his deep understanding of the exchange market, Multicoin’s choice to invest in FTX US’s most recent round didn’t take much time. “We didn’t discuss this for more than eight seconds,” Samani said. Step 5: Win There is arguably no more tense venture capital market right now than in cryptocurrencies. Industry-specific funds like Paradigm, Electric Capital, and a16z have all established size; newcomers like Haun Ventures have joined the fray with deep pockets; and traditional players like Bessemer and Bain have decided to enter the fray. How did Multicoin win in allocations against funds with bigger teams and more capital to deploy? In part, it did so by picking esoteric picks and identifying promising projects that other funds had already passed on. As mentioned in the first part of this trilogy, Solana, Helium, and The Graph all had difficult fundraising processes before becoming big hits. As Multicoin races in the “red ocean” (what Samani calls the competitive space), it relies on a few weapons. The first is its genuine interest and expertise, specifically in the market the project operates in. Per Saman: I think one of the things you hear a lot about us is that whether we end up investing or not, we typically ask the hardest, most nuanced questions about how the market is going to play out. We pressure them on that. And that’s probably the single most effective tool for winning deals. Founders realize that these questions force them to think about the market in a way that they hadn’t before. Multicoin also recognizes that venture capital is a service business. “Entrepreneurs want investors to move at their speed,” says Jain. To accommodate that speed, the team makes itself widely available in all investments and responds to outreach as quickly as possible. “It’s rare that a company will respond to an email at 10 p.m.,” says Samani. “Founders get a fast turnaround time.” There’s one lever Multicoin isn’t willing to pull to win deals: valuation. To maximize potential, Multicoin wants to keep pricing disciplined. Of course, there are exceptions to every rule. “The team and I are very clear: valuation insensitivity exists,” Samani added during our discussion. Such an event rarely happens—about once a year, he estimates—but when it comes, the team throws out the rulebook. One example is Serum, the decentralized exchange being built on Solana by Sam Bankman-Fried. Given Bankman-Fried’s reputation, Serum was sufficiently valued that Multicoin saw it as a project worth investing in. “We knew Sam was the guy who built this, and Anatoly’s vision was to have an order book on Solana,” Samani said. “It was too good to pass up.” Step 6: Scale To compensate for Serum’s high valuation, Samani noted that the fund has aggressively adjusted its position. This involves another key step in the Multicoin process: deciding how much to invest in a given trade. If you compare Multicoin’s performance to venture capital benchmarks, it’ll be in a vacuum. Part of what makes Multicoin so successful is its ability to focus its investments. According to Jain, the confidence to take these positions can be traced back to the research in step one: “The understanding of the design space and the tradeoffs involved gave us the conviction to go further.” Reasonably, Multicoin tends to invest the most when its managing partners are bullish. “We like all the big winners,” Jain said of him and Samani. “That’s why we believe in actively evaluating them. I don’t think there’s any big win we haven’t evaluated.” Depending on the type of investment, the funding itself could come from Multicoin’s hedge fund or venture fund. As mentioned earlier, the same team works in both areas and the basic idea remains the same. “The difference is simply in liquidity,” Jain said. Another oddity is that the hedge fund allowed Multicoin to take short positions, even though the fund has been doing so less and less frequently. Considering the number of hyped scams in the cryptocurrency space, you might wonder why. In fact, Samani mentioned the value of shorting in exposing shady projects, especially those that rely on unsustainable economic models. "Shorting is a very interesting way to break up Ponzi schemes," he said, pointing to a recent project, Olympus, as an example. Multicoin's shorting activity is not limited to potential Ponzi schemes. In the past, it has successfully shorted Zcash, Monero, and Ripple. So why abandon this approach? “Shorting is hard to profit from,” Jain said. “It’s asymmetric downside, not asymmetric upside.” Plus, it carries reputational risk, which is important because Multicoin operates a venture fund. “While shorting makes the market more efficient, it’s not great when hedge funds make money and others lose money,” Jain said. Ultimately, Multicoin appears to be heading towards a long-only mode. This looks consistent given the company’s tendency to make very long-term, aggressive investments in its venture capital vehicles. Step 7: Active support Multicoin is not a hands-off investor. It constantly and proactively seeks ways to help its portfolio projects think and execute better. These efforts are varied, but it starts with simply keeping its portfolio companies in mind. Per Samani: We're always sharing ideas or news with them. It's not like, "Oh my god, there's a competitor and they're going to kill you." It's more like we're sending a message to someone and saying, "Hey, I saw this article and it reminded me of what you were doing. Here's something you might want to think about." Entrepreneurs unanimously back this up. “They’re always thinking about how they can help without you asking,” says Harry Zhang, CEO of Project Galaxy. Samani adds that while about 80% of the messages he might send don’t lead anywhere, that doesn’t matter. “I want them to know I’m thinking about them. And 20% of the time, it ends up being useful.” Considering Samani estimates he sends about 20 of these messages a day to founders in his portfolio, a 20% hit rate is pretty high. While Multicoin plays a percentage role in providing advice, it also provides more specific support. In particular, the fund has provided strong marketing and PR help through Reed. LP Adam Mastrell called Reed's joining in 2018 "monumental" because he brought new value. Multicoin's founders confirmed this sentiment. Tegan Kline of The Graph called Reed a "well-rounded scholar", while Solana co-founder Raj Gokal said he taught the project "everything we know about PR, marketing, product launches, and managing communities." In the often confusing world of cryptocurrency, it is extremely valuable to have someone who understands the technology and can craft a compelling message. Another way Multicoin is providing support is by helping projects expand into China. Since hiring Mable Jiang in 2019, the company has established an influential presence in the Chinese ecosystem. For example, as part of Solana’s 2020 scouting tour of Asia, Jiang helped develop a “hyperlocal” engagement strategy that leveraged WeChat and domestic social media platforms. She also excelled at business development introductions, helping Solana hire Chinese talent. After 18 months of work, “Solana’s visibility in China has greatly increased.” This is far from an isolated example, and Jiang has provided similar value to Helium and The Graph, assisting both projects in recruiting regional staff. Multicoin’s ability to offer cross-continental support is a rare advantage. No other U.S. crypto fund has such a base in China. Meanwhile, China’s best-known companies, such as HashKey and Fenbushi, remain focused on Asia. Samani said of Multicoin’s approach: Crypto capital markets are global in nature. We recognized this early on and have tried to help all of our portfolio companies by integrating knowledge from major cultures within our team. In addition to PR and Chinese market expertise, Multicoin also seems keen to add value in other ways depending on the situation. As mentioned in Part 1, the team played an important role in helping Helium define its token structure. For Mong, this event is emblematic of the flexibility that Multicoin aims to provide, “It’s clear that they don’t use a templated approach in their portfolio.” Finally, Multicoin is advancing the company by advocating for progressive cryptocurrency regulation. Last year, former Chapman and Cutler partner Greg Xethalis joined Multicoin to run the in-house legal function and direct Multicoin’s work in Washington. Xethalis previously worked on one of the first Bitcoin ETF proposals and has represented several prominent crypto operators in the space for more than nine years. During our conversation, he noted that Multicoin “wanted to be involved in Washington.” He specifically pointed out two priorities for “common-sense” legislation. The first, determining how Bitcoin and other digital assets should be treated from a tax perspective. The second is to create a framework for network launches and DeFi that allows the space to develop onshore, albeit with “specific guardrails.” Xethalis acknowledged that while no single law can solve the industry’s problems, he and the company are keen to advocate for a permissive environment in the United States. Multicoin’s regulatory interest is another example of taking the initiative to help its companies. Step 8: Follow up proactively Some decisions you learn the hard way. In 2019, Multicoin acted early to buy Binance’s native token, BNB. It was a big deal, given that BNB rose more than 6,300% over the next three years. However, Multicoin missed out on some of the upside. “We adjusted our position too quickly, and the upside continued,” Jain recalls with a sigh. “We still have some of it, but we could have had more, and it just compounded into a huge market. We learned that you need to let your winners run free.” Fortunately, this appears to be just an isolated lapse in judgment. Overall, Multicoin leans into its winners rather than cutting them. As mentioned earlier, Multicoin acquired a stake in Solana from other investors in the early days of the project, when many had lost faith in the project. Samani and Jain have similarly made follow-on investments in Helium, The Graph, and several other projects. After purchasing FTX’s token FTT, the team closely followed Sam Bankman-Fried’s work to help with the creation of Serum and participated in FTX US’s recent investment round. When Multicoin thinks it’s going to be a winner — even if other investors disagree — it doubles or triples down. Multicoin Capital has earned the rarest honor in the venture capital world: contrarian investing. It has a long history of picking non-consensus investments and being proven right. Achieving this requires more than just Twitter blasting, snazzy marketing, or provocative conferences. It’s a result of the firm’s most fundamental principle: independent thinking. This article was translated by "老雅痞laoyapicom" Source: readthegeneralist.com, slightly modified by Mario Gabriele |
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