Ethereum merge upgrade expected to take place on September 15

On August 19, Twitter user Crypto-Gucci.eth tweeted that at the latest Ethereum core developer meeting, it was determined that the TTD of the Ethereum merged mainnet is 587500000000000000000000, so the Ethereum merge will occur around September 15.

According to totaldifficulty.com, the merger is expected to take place at 12:29 on September 15. Before the fork, the Ethereum mainnet will undergo a Bellatrix fork. It is predicted that if the Bellatrix upgrade is carried out on August 31, the merger TTD will be reached around September 15. The time can be preliminarily confirmed at present.

The combined TTD (Terminal Total Difficulty) value is used in this calculation.

TTD exists to set the final total difficulty value of the merger, so the TTD value on a given date is predicted first and then adjusted according to changes in computing power.

To determine when the TTD value will be reached, a polynomial regression method can be used to create an accurate estimate. The accuracy of the prediction depends on the fluctuation of the future computing power. If the computing power fluctuates significantly and far enough ahead of the expected date, the TTD date may be postponed by a few days.

In the past few months, the average value of the hashrate has been around 1PH/s, reaching a peak of 1.126 PH/s in May. After a sharp drop in June, the hashrate has gradually recovered and is now around 900TH/s (average, effective hashrate). Last month, the hashrate oscillated between 950TH/s and 780TH/s (peak), with a daily change of no more than 5%.

If the maximum estimated hashrate drop is 30%, then the TTD value will be reached at the end of September. If you want to prepare for a larger drop, you must set the TTD value lower.

When TTD changes, the arrival time prediction will also change accordingly, which will cause market fluctuations and is not conducive to the migration process during the upgrade.