Crypto Market Outlook for November

GM is busy with November outlook recently. Cancun cannot happen this year. Arbitrum ecosystem ARB GRANT will be held in January next year. Cosmos system Thorchain, Injective, Kujira, Canto performed best. DYDX changed from a pure governance token to a real income token. BRC20 has $SATS and $ORDI. $STG has Upbit listing Korean won trading pairs. $LBR has Lybra. $SOL has Jito. Sui has $SUI liquidity incentives. Aptos has $APT. Blur has $BLUR rebound. It is recommended to stop profit frequently and buy the callback.

GM, I've been very busy recently, so I'm sorry for the delay.

November Outlook is here.

Let me first briefly talk about the stocks I am optimistic about or hold.

1. Cancun system

Cancun is unlikely to happen this year, so don’t expect too much from Layer2 this year. From November 13 to 19, the Ethereum Foundation will hold the “Devconnect Istanbul” summit in Istanbul, Turkey, and you can observe the meeting. However, every meeting will fall, so pay attention to the risks here.

However, I still hold $ARB spot and have been accumulating it.

2. Arbitrum Ecosystem

ARB GRANT ended last month, and the incentive will be carried out in January next year. Therefore, although the Arbitrum chain is in a recovery period, it will take until next year for a large amount of liquidity to flow in. Recently, the most concerned proposal should be the one to start ARB staking, which was initiated by the $PLS project. The fundamental reason is that the $PLS project did something stupid before, which caused $plsARB to be seriously decoupled. The current operation is to use the money of $ABR treasury to make $plsARB return to the anchor. I don’t know whether this proposal will be passed in the end. If it is passed, it will be a short-term benefit for $ARB. However, various governance disasters also reflect that Arbitrum has big problems in governance, which will affect the overall development of Arbitrum Layer2 in the long run.

Speculative Possibility: $plsARB $ARB

The approval of the pledge is a short-term positive for $plsARB and $ARB.

3. Cosmos

The four best performing Cosmos tokens are Thorchain, Injective, Kujira, and Canto. The price increase of Thorchain is driven by fundamentals. You can check the official data dashboard. Thorchain's recent data is very good. Since the price of $RUNE is closely related to its fundamentals, it is also my most optimistic Cosmos token.

The rise of Kujira $KUJI and Injective $INJ seems quite nonsensical, and can only be judged as someone willing to stir up trouble in the secondary market. However, although the prices are not driven by fundamentals, the basic market of these two application chains is still good - Cosmos is the tallest among the short ones.

Let me briefly explain my understanding of $RUNE.

To understand the rise of $RUNE, you need to understand the mechanism of $RUNE. RUNE itself is a long volatility token. The greater the market volatility (mainly $BTC and $ETH), the more people go to Thorchain for arbitrage (need to balance the 1:1 balance of BTC-RUNE and ETH-RUNE). Arbitrageurs support the transaction volume of Thorchain. The more transaction fees, the higher the LP income (and half of it is RUNE. The rise of RUNE means more money on the LP account). The growth of LP TVL means stronger buying of RUNE (1:1 LP and node buying RUNE to protect LP). The rise of RUNE, the higher its volatility. This cycle continues. In other words, as long as the volatility of BTC, ETH and RUNE is higher, RUNE will rise. Therefore, people in the market will call him Little $LUNA.

Canto has created enough expectations in the market (Polygon migration and RWA), so it has been able to maintain an upward trend before. However, its LP returns are supported by $CANTO inflation, which is a risk.

Apart from that, my personal opinion on TIA is to buy at a low point and pledge it in different wallets.

$FRONT

The reason why I bought $FRONT is that it has created a SelfChain. SelfChain has many buffs, modular, private key-free and Intent Layer 1. Later, Front will exchange tokens, exchange FRONT for SELF, and issue more tokens. For me, FRONT is a good investment target. The exchange of tokens should happen this year.

5. $DYDX

There are many people in the market talking about DYDX staking, and some have calculated the returns, so I will just talk about it briefly here.

After v4, DYDX has changed from a pure governance token (mining coin) to a real income token. All transaction fees of DYDX V4 will be given to Validator. And users can stake DYDX into Validator to get a share of the transaction fees (100%), just like ETH. Previously, DYDX was the largest decentralized derivatives exchange in the market. Let's think about it and calculate how much the annualized return of staking DYDX can be by then?

A guess: If the annualized rate reaches 30%, will DYDX, which is about to be unlocked in December, be sold?

DYDX is a potential target that I am optimistic about, and I will add positions after it is unlocked.

VI. BRC20

I have positions in both $SATS and $ORDI (bands). To put it simply, it’s bullish, without any specific or complicated logic. As the leader of the BTC ecosystem, and BTC ETF and halving narrative will be the mainstream narratives in the future, why not be optimistic and hold?

7. Games

I will talk about the game content in detail on the account @0xPixelPenguin. At present, I am deeply involved in Parallel $PRIME and Pixels Online (I have introduced it in detail on that account before). Pixels is about farming, and the background is also good. I bought NFT. $PRIME has been increasing its spot holdings - Parallel is a blockchain game supported by Paradigm and Coinbase . It is now in the testing period and is migrating to Base. There is no reason not to be optimistic. It’s just that it’s not the time for $PRIME yet.

Let’s not talk about $GHST, the position is not large and it has been stuck.

Here are some more things I'm looking at:

1. Tableland Rigs

In the middle of this year, I bought Tableland Rigs NFTs and flew. In addition, the team will attend and give a speech in Istanbul - it is expected to be Tableland Rigs TGE. The specific time is unknown, but it is always close, either this year or next year. You might as well find an opportunity to buy some Rigs and earn some FT reputation by flying. Maybe there will be airdrops later - this NFT is similar to Gala's node, a means of early financing.

I myself hold Rigs NFT.

2. $STG

$STG Everyone is speculating on the expected launch of Korean won trading pairs on Upbit (someone has mentioned this before, keyword UDC), which may be between the 20th and 30th of this month. Another possibility is the LayerZero airdrop, but I personally think that such things are unpredictable, and hyping STG cannot rely on a blank check. Upbit's expectations are still more reliable.

3. $LBR

I still have a little bit of Lybra. It is the only LSDFi token I still hold. As for other LSDFi, I personally think it is still possible to participate (deposit E), but be cautious when buying tokens.

Solana

$SOL is performing very strongly, and the Solana ecosystem is also on the rise. I personally think Jito, the Solana LSD, is worth participating in to earn some points.

5. Sui&Aptos

Sui's TVL has exceeded 100 million US dollars, and there are many mining opportunities in the ecosystem, such as Cetus and NAVI. However, the driving force behind the increase in TVL is actually the $SUI liquidity incentive provided by Sui officials. If you want to buy SUI, you also need to pay attention to this selling pressure, and you can't just look at it from a fundamental perspective. More importantly, you need to look at the development of the Sui ecosystem.

Aptos TVL has also increased a lot. From my own conclusion, it is the people who unlocked it who put $APT in the ecosystem. Maybe they know something - APT may follow the unlocking narrative.

Blur

An important event for Blur this month was November 20, and the price performance was also good. This wave of $BLUR's rebound may be related to the recovery of the NFT market, oversold rebound, and unlocking expectations. Similar to APT, you can pay more attention to it.

Finally, there are quite a lot of summits in November, and everyone is saying that "there will be a drop after every summit", so what I plan to do this month is to stop profit frequently and buy the callback. The bull market has come, I wish you all good fortune.