27 Crypto Predictions for 2024

1. The battle for data availability will begin and become one of the biggest narratives in 2024.

2. Data availability (DA) solutions that stand out will win by brand rather than cost, and there will be multiple DA solutions aligned with the ecosystem (such as EigenDA based on Ethereum, Celestia, etc.).

3. There will be L2 competition between 2-3 generation winners (such as Arbitrum and Optimism) and niche winners (such as Blast). Other L2s will not disappear, but will exist as zombie chains for several years, or perhaps forever.

4. Blast’s leading position will drive other L2 protocols and other similar protocols to generate native revenue.

5. At least one large lock and mint bridge will provide native returns.

6. Ethereum will break away from the “Ultrasound Money” meme and form a new narrative.

7. Ethereum will perform well in 2024, and reports of Ethereum's demise are exaggerated. ETH will rise after the Bitcoin ETF is listed because people should want to chase new and different narratives. Some L2s will perform exceptionally well.

8. In 2024, Ethereum's staking rate will exceed 50%.

9. 60% of liquidity stakers will choose to re-stake (ultimately liquidity re-staking). This will be driven by reduced consensus and reduced execution rewards, essentially putting those seeking yield out of risk.

10. Restaking will take off on chains other than Ethereum. One of the major liquidity staking providers outside of Ethereum will launch a vertically integrated restaking service.

11. As parallelization and virtual machine optimization become the mainstream narrative in 2024, Aptos and Sui will once again occupy a certain market share.

12. Solana has essentially become the “Ethereum of this market cycle.” This is not a flash in the pan, Solana’s outstanding performance will continue.

13. Solana’s fee market and economics will receive increasing attention from investors and builders. By the end of 2024, the Solana community will propose a proposal similar to 1559 to completely reform the fee mechanism.

14. At least two Ethereum OG DeFi protocols will be launched on Solana, or launch their own SVM chains.

15. By the end of 2024, we will start hearing news about Solana L2.

16. Citadel will vigorously promote the development of the crypto field and rank among the top three in the MEV field by the end of 2024. Ken Griffin will follow in Finn's footsteps and publicly express his change of attitude towards cryptocurrencies.

17. The time game will lead to major problems in Ethereum consensus. This will further incentivize MEV to shift from proposers to dapps and users.

18. Uniswap will have a breakthrough year. V4 will exceed market expectations and the wallet will become a dark horse. 2024 is the year they finally turn on the fee switch.

19. UniswapX will become a real bridge and begin to adjust its branding to promote itself.

20. NFTs make a comeback and become the main rotation transaction after L1 starts to really run. PFPs are not dead, they will still be the main use case.

21. L2 will start making major innovations to the EVM. Parallelization will become a hot topic, but at some point the discussion will shift to interoperability. In 2024, L2 will still not be able to solve this problem.

22. We will move beyond the modularity vs. integration debate. Hybrid models will become a dominant narrative as solutions at different stages of the value chain are re-bundled through partnerships or vertical integration.

23. Fees are still an issue that no chain can solve. 4844 will be disappointing, L2 and Ethereum will be costly. Solana fees will slowly rise, and performance will be tested by the weight of bull market traffic.

24. Tribalism will get worse before it gets better. The industry will be larger and more fragmented than it is today.

25. Friend Tech will make a comeback in 2024. SocialFi will be at its peak.

26. Games will become applications that cross the chasm and enter the mainstream, just like the extremely simple and easy-to-play game "Candy Crush".

27. Bitcoin will become a major political issue in the United States because it has performed well in the face of financial repression attempts. It will be on the news and your mom will ask you about Bitcoin again and again. Bitcoin will eventually be defended by the current strong and determined believers (such as Team Fink).