TRB's "roller coaster" story: whale control, team selling, excessive leverage

At the beginning of 2024, the Tellor Tributes token TRB, an old project in the oracle track, completed a "roller coaster" performance.

On December 31, TRB, which had risen from around $11 to $268 in more than three months, did not stop, but peaked at around $590 in the next six hours. An even more surprising scene followed, and within the same six hours, TRB plummeted to around $149.

In 12 hours, the price of TRB soared and plummeted sharply. Its logo resembled a "crescent scimitar", which caused the first "long and short double explosion" tragedy in the new year in the crypto asset market. The total amount of contract liquidation in the entire network was US$73.1 million. Both long and short investors were angry. They were fooled by this "demon coin".

An existing voice in the market has finally been heard: TRB with a maximum supply of 2,586,819 has been controlled. Spot On Chain, an on-chain analysis tool, previously calculated that "of the 2.5 million TRB in circulation, about 1.7 million are on exchanges, and 20 whales hold 660,000."

The accumulation of funds by some addresses happened in August 2023 when TRB started to rise. At that time, LD Capital, a crypto asset investment and service agency, mentioned TRB's on-chain position building in a report. Perhaps because of this, some investors pointed the finger at LD as the controller, prompting the agency's partner Lou Jiyue to come forward to clarify by publicly offering a reward of $10 million for evidence.

Afterwards, an on-chain analyst pointed out that before the TRB crash on January 1, the Tellor Tributes team deposited 4,211 TRB into the centralized exchange Coinbase. On-chain data showed that the team had transferred 7,000 TRB to Coinbase two days ago, when TRB was in a continuous rise.

In the illiquid TRB market, over-leveraged trading positions also contributed to the sharp rise and fall of TRB. One trader observed that the daily contract trading volume of TRB was over US$500 million, and "there are a lot of gamblers."

With giant whales controlling the market, teams selling out, and excessive leverage, the uncontrolled "demon coin" TRB has completed its first cut of the new year.

Long and short double explosion "Crescent Moon Scimitar" 12-hour rotation harvest

At 9:25 pm on New Year’s Eve, TRB, which had been rising for four months, climbed from $268.88. By 6:15 am the next morning, it had risen to $593.09, an increase of 120.5%.

Just as TRB successfully attracted the market's attention, in the next hour, TRB fell sharply, falling to a low of $143.69 within 6 hours, a drop of 312.75% from the high.

The violent fluctuations in a short period of time directly caused the "double explosion" of the contract market. Data shows that in the 24 hours before 8 am on January 1, the amount of TRB futures contracts liquidated was US$73.1 million, of which US$44.49 million was for short positions and US$28.61 million was for long positions.

TRB futures contracts liquidated $73.1 million in 24 hours

In addition to the liquidation that occurred in centralized exchanges, decentralized DeFi applications were also not immune.

On January 1, @kain.eth, the founder of the decentralized synthetic asset issuance protocol Synthetix (SNX), stated on the X platform that SNX stakers lost about $2 million due to abnormal fluctuations in TRB.

@kain.eth explained that TRB originally had an open interest limit of $250,000 on Synthetix, but as its price rose over the past few months, this limit has swelled to $12.5 million and should have been lowered, but risk control was not strict. "Today, TRB prices soared and several short positions were opened, but due to the misalignment between spot prices and contract prices, arbitrage balance failed, which is a lesson for Synthetix."

The price anomaly of TRB also appeared in the exchange's quotes. At around 10:00 on January 1, the TRB/USDT price on OKX was $233.24, while the TRB/USDT price on Binance was $170.74, with a price difference of 36.6%.

In fact, TRB, whose logo looks like a "crescent moon scimitar", appeared as early as 2019. It is the native token of the decentralized oracle protocol Tellor Tributes. The total supply is 2.586819 million, and the current circulation is 2.553723 million, which is almost fully circulated.

According to Coingecko, a third-party data platform for the crypto asset market, TRB entered the secondary market in early October 2019, with an initial price of only $0.8. It climbed to $146.14 during the crypto bull market in 2021 and fell below $100 four days later. In the following year, the price of TRB has been fluctuating in the double digits.

TRB price has been calm for nearly 2 years, but suddenly changed from August 2023

Starting from 2023, TRB remained between $8 and $10. Until September 16, TRB surged from around $10 to more than $40 in less than a month, multiplying several times. At the end of September, it even exceeded $60 on some exchanges. After half a month of recovery, it continued to rise from around $46 on October 13, reaching a staged high of $139.92 in early November, and finally rushed to a high and waterfall at the end of the year, "bloodbathing" the contract market.

Such a project, which was created in 2019 and had been half-dead for nearly two years, suddenly came back to life in September last year, fluctuated upward all the way, and turned into a "killer" of both long and short explosions by the end of the year. There must be something wrong when things are abnormal.

Ambush for 4 months, giant whales absorb funds and control the market

After the “demon coin” released its demonic aura, the situation of the giant whale controlling the market gradually became clear.

In fact, on December 29, when TRB rose to $225, the on-chain data analysis tool Spot On Chain issued a reminder message, "Of the 2.5 million $TRB in circulation, approximately 1.7 million are on exchanges, and 20 whales hold 660,000."

Spot On Chain also analyzed the data and said that whales accumulated TRB at a favorable price of $15 in August and September, and since then, the price of the token has increased 15 times, earning a total of $120 million ($40 million in realized profits and $80 million in unrealized profits). Over the past two months, whales have slowly deposited their tokens into exchanges, forming a pump-and-dump cycle to liquidate their holdings.

Anyone who has played crypto asset games in 2017 knows that when chips are overly concentrated in the hands of one or a few people, tokens become a tool for bookmakers to manipulate prices.

Spot On Chain suggested at the time that since the majority of tokens are still in the hands of whales, they control the game. Prices may experience sharp increases to clear short positions and hard sells to liquidate their holdings.

Spot On Chain's suggestion finally came true. TRB took a dive just six hours into the new year.

So, who are these whales that manipulate TRB chips?

Unfortunately, although the public nature of blockchain addresses allows anyone to see the flow of assets, the anonymity of blockchain does not allow the outside world to know the specific identity of the holder.

Some people pointed the finger at a crypto asset investment service provider as the operator. On social media, some people accused LD Capital, a company familiar to many people in the Chinese cryptocurrency community.

In response to this, Lou Jiyue, partner of LD Capital, responded on multiple social channels including X, “A reward of $10 million will be offered to anyone who finds any Binance account KYC information and information related to LD/myself/and any of our related parties, transaction costs, and this wave of TRB price fluctuations; otherwise, if the content of the information is spread with more than 3,000 views, we reserve the right to pursue relevant legal responsibilities.”

The reason for the accusation against Lede Capital may be a report on TRB fund analysis released by the agency on August 28 last year. In fact, Lede Capital mentioned in the report at that time that some addresses were accumulating TRB.

The report shows that on August 21, a large fluctuation was observed on the chain, which was the highest level since January this year and much larger than the previous data. At the same time, the price did not fluctuate significantly, hovering around $10. "We think that someone may have built a position on the chain at this time."

Without the correspondence between the address and the identity, this report cannot serve as proof of the accusation that Lede Capital is controlling the market, but the report does prove that the TRB whale was indeed accumulating shares at a low point.

The whales who accumulate funds are uncertain, but those who sell at high points are caught in the act.

On January 1, the on-chain analysis tool Lookonchain said based on tracking data that a wallet address related to the Tellor Tributes development team transferred 4,211 TRBs to the exchange Coinbase after the TRB price skyrocketed. At the price at the time, these TRBs were worth $2.4 million.

Tellor team-related addresses transferred TRB to Coinbase multiple times‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍‍

According to on-chain data, this address starting with 0x1B8 transferred 12,735 TRB to Coinbase in December, and also received 20,000 TRB through Tellor's multi-signature.

Based on this, it is not ruled out that the Tellor Tributes team will profit from the high point of TRB.

Analyst @Riyad_carey pointed out that the Tellor Tributes team deposited TRB into Coinbase a few hours before the price crash, but the sell-off on Binance was about 2 minutes earlier than Coinbase. However, after the Tellor Tributes team deposited TRB into Coinbase for the second time, the market saw a sell-off of $350,000, causing the price of TRB to fall from $500 to $400. He believes that the Tellor Tributes team does not rule out clearing up, but the whales who really manipulate the price are hiding in Binance.

This analysis also coincides with the data tracked by Spot On Chain. The data collected from the giant whale address prompt established by this tool shows that since September, most of the TRB in the whale wallets has flowed to Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange.

According to on-chain data, even today (January 5), an address of Binance still ranks first among TRB holders, with a total of 771,600 TRB, accounting for 29.82% of the total supply; the second largest exchange is OKX, with a total of 189,700 TRB, accounting for 7.2%.

In addition, TRB in the top ten non-exchange whale addresses accounts for 24.85% of the total supply, about 642,900, and the chips are still concentrated.

Excessive leverage "casino" no one survives

Investors affected by the sharp rise and fall of TRB not only cursed the giant whales hiding in the dark to control the market, but also expressed dissatisfaction with the exchanges for allowing the giant whales to slaughter investors. Some users called on exchanges such as Binance, Coinbase, and OKX to remove this "stand-alone coin".

After the incident, Binance took temporary measures to suspend the withdrawal service of TRB. However, as of press time, no exchange has removed TRB from its shelves.

The liquidation amount of more than 70 million has indeed caused heavy losses to many people, and the excessive leverage trading in the market has in fact contributed to the sharp rise and fall of TRB.

As early as August, when LD Capital discovered that TRB was accumulating funds on the chain, it also discovered that TRB's contract trading volume and open interest also increased at that time. On the morning of August 26 alone, TRB's 24-hour contract trading volume increased by 151%, and contract open interest increased by 93%. "Large accounts are in a long position, and the account long-short ratio is 0.96, indicating that a large number of retail investors are shorting."

TRB contract market data recorded by LD Capital on August 26

At that time, TRB's trading volume was still $30.5 million, and its open interest was $12.8 million. On August 28, just two days later, TRB's contract trading volume and open interest increased rapidly. "In the last 24 hours, its contract trading volume was $1.6 billion, and its open interest was about $68 million."

August was the period when whales began to accumulate funds. The rise in TRB prices also began to attract futures contract traders to enter the market. The open interest in the TRB contract market also began in August.

Changes in TRB contract open interest in 2023 and liquidation data from October

According to common sense, no coin will continue to rise. But TRB does not follow common sense. After entering October, "air force" has become a frequent blow-up of TRB's rising stage. By October 26, TRB, with a total market value of US$250 million, had a position of US$355 million in the contract market, and the funding rate was -1.38%.

After the continuous short position liquidations, some traders have sensed the crisis and given up trading TRB, while there are still some people who refuse to believe and always want to get a wave of short-selling profits at the high point, but they fail again and again.

On December 29, when TRB had not yet hit $500, Myth, a Binance user who had shorted the token, recalled that he had shorted TRB around $35 and was lucky enough to have a big pullback, but after continuing to try swing shorting, his profits fell back by nearly 80%, and he subsequently gave up the target.

He speculated that the big coin holders manipulated the price of the coin and then used the leverage of the contract to make profits. "If you are still playing contracts, it is best to stay away from this coin. Now the daily contract transaction volume of this token exceeds 500 million U. It can only be said that there are really a lot of gamblers."

Two days later, TRB surged within 6 hours and plunged within 6 hours, with both long and short positions exploding, and the contract market was in a state of complete destruction.

Looking back, TRB, with a supply of only 2.58 million, is almost fully circulated. In a market where prices are not high, such crypto assets are easily bought at low prices. When the dealers have more and more chips, they almost control the right to draw the K-line, and the "blind players" in the contract market can only let them slaughter them.

The existence of the "demon coin" TRB and its continued existence after releasing its evil spirit once again proves the lack of investor protection in the crypto asset market. In such an environment, there is only one way for investors to protect themselves: keep their eyes open and stay away from market targets that lack liquidity.