We discussed the issue of how far blockchain has to go, which is of general concern to the market, from the perspectives of policy, technology, society, and capital markets, and strived to present the most complete picture of the current development of blockchain.
At the policy level, we are entering an acceleration period, and "blockchain + finance" occupies more than half of the market: We have sorted out the major policies and trends related to blockchain issued by governments or authoritative institutions of various countries, and found that "blockchain + finance" occupies more than half of the market. Among the 47 major policies and events we counted, 36 are related to finance, accounting for about 77%. The current global policy environment for blockchain technology is obviously improving and entering an accelerated start-up period. Demonstration projects are yet to appear in the future, and the generation gap between "blockchain + finance" and implementation is small, so it is expected that demonstration projects will appear first.
On the technical level, "limited decentralization" may become the mainstream after unified standards are established: the underlying technical elements of blockchain have long been available, but there is still a lack of unified technical standards. At present, the standardization demand for "blockchain + finance" is high, and we have also seen many authoritative organizations such as R3 and China Internet Finance Association taking the lead in promoting the establishment of unified standards for blockchain in the financial industry. Since it is still in the technical exploration stage, in addition to unified technical standards, there are also problems such as 51% attack, work efficiency, resource consumption, etc. In the short term, it will become a greater possibility to establish "limited decentralized applications" led by the financial industry.
In terms of public opinion, there are mixed feelings, with increased attention: In the past six months, the media's attention to blockchain has continued to increase, but due to the attack on The DAO, public opinion has shown a certain degree of concern about blockchain. We believe that a blessing in disguise, a temporary setback may prompt the better growth of blockchain. Currently, blockchain is still in a legal gray area. If it is to be promoted and applied on a large scale, legal protection is essential. This incident is also expected to promote the advancement of relevant rule of law, which is beneficial to the long-term development of blockchain.
At the capital market level, 2016 is expected to be a year of explosion: We have sorted out the investment and financing events in the blockchain field in recent years. In 2015, the total investment and financing in the blockchain field was about 474 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 43.51%. According to forecasts, the investment in the financial field alone will reach 1 billion US dollars in 2016. In addition, most of the current investment and financing is still in the angel round, and A and B rounds of financing. There is huge room for investment growth in the capital market in the future. Therefore, we believe that the performance of blockchain in the capital market is expected to be a year of explosion in 2016, and the investment in the capital market this year will be the theme year of "blockchain + finance". The focus of investment is shifting to "non-monetary and comprehensive categories", and the financial industry will become the main force in the explosion of blockchain investment and financing.
It is recommended to pay attention to IT manufacturers with blockchain technology and applications: We recommend screening targets from the two dimensions of "technology development capabilities" and "applications and scenarios". Application scenarios recommended to focus on: bills, payments, equity transactions, etc. Recommendations: 1) "Technology and scenarios" beneficiary targets: Hengsheng Electronics, Wintime, Gaowei Technology, Newland, Hailimeida, and Jinzheng Shares; 2) Encryption and decryption related targets: Feiteng Chengxin and Weishitong.
Risk warning: 1) The conditions for large-scale promotion and application are not met in the short term, and the profitability of related targets will not be affected in the short term. 2) Blockchain is still in the early stages of research and application, and standards have not yet been formed.
