Will Bitcoin continue to fall due to ETFs? How do industry insiders view the market in the first half of the year?

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved a slew of bitcoin ETFs on Jan. 10, sparking speculation about how the market might react in the coming weeks.

In the hours following the announcement, the price of Bitcoin surged to $49,000 before falling to just over $43,000 by January 12 — a development that probably surprised few observers. However, with the Bitcoin halving set to take place in April, there is little consensus on what will happen next.

For further analysis, we asked some industry insiders what they thought.

Tom Blackstone, Reporter:

As of December 31, the Bitcoin price barely broke through resistance and closed at $42,265. This was $2,265 higher than the upper limit I had expected a few months ago, so my prediction was a little off.

History shows that halving years have very high price increases compared to previous years, so I expect Bitcoin to be higher by the end of the year , although June is too early for a rally. By the end of the year, I expect it to hit new all-time highs. I don’t think the ETF news will have much of an impact in the first two months or so after the decision.

CT: Where do you think the price of Bitcoin will be on June 30th?

TB: I think it will be above $47,000.

Lucas Kiely, Chief Investment Officer at Yield App:

We may see some “sell the news” action, but only by some short-term traders. Holders are not selling — especially ahead of the Bitcoin halving, which has been the catalyst for every major rally in the past. The number of long-term holders is around 76%, higher than at any time in history.

We will see a small pullback, but it will be nothing to write home about. It may take a while before it breaks the $50,000 threshold. But by June, the halving will be over and prices should go higher. Of course, the magnitude will depend on many factors, not least the macroeconomic backdrop. We also know that halvings usually take a while to affect prices, so we may need to be patient and wait for new all-time highs.

By the end of June, I expect Bitcoin price to be between $50,000 and $60,000.

Christos Makridis, Associate Research Professor at Arizona State University and Founder/CEO of Dynamic AI:

A Bitcoin ETF is a big step forward for digital asset prices this year (even beyond BTC). In addition to growing institutional recognition and adoption of digital assets, we may see further increases in economic and political uncertainty. At least historically, there is a strong negative correlation between uncertainty and the price of BTC and ETH, and this correlation may be amplified during the 2024 election cycle. The current price momentum of digital assets may continue, and people will see them as a safe haven amid uncertainty and positive central bank and federal decision-making, further driving their price appreciation.

Bitcoin price in June. I would not be surprised if BTC breaks $50,000.

Ray Salmond, Head of Marketing:

Bitcoin’s long-term price action will likely be influenced by the size and consistency of ETF inflows and corresponding reports at the end of Q1 and Q2.

It will be interesting to see how institutions reposition their portfolio allocations to Bitcoin and what consumer and retail products emerge in the year ahead. In the short term, attention will likely turn back to Bitcoin’s April halving and the historical impact this has had on price.

Personally, I’d love to see Bitcoin consolidate in the $50,000 to $56,000 price range for the next two months or so. It would be great to eventually break above the $58,000 support level and get some further strength before the halving.

Bitcoin price in June: between $55,500 and $69,420, but there are too many factors that could change.

Daniele Servadei, Founder and CEO of Sellix:

Bitcoin will inevitably surge above $100,000, fueled by an influx of retail investors. This marks a pivotal moment for Bitcoin, as it not only simplifies the investment process by eliminating the need to trade directly with cryptocurrency exchanges, but also marks a major leap forward for mainstream acceptance and regulatory clarity in the U.S. (Ethereum, on the other hand, may not be able to mirror Bitcoin’s rise.)

Bitcoin price in June. $140,000.

Rudy Takala, Editor:

The upper limit of Bitcoin’s price range was set at $49,000 when the ETF was launched. Once we establish a post-ETF bottom, I think we’ll see it trade in an increasingly narrowing range until it’s ready to break out — which could make it safer to short the higher end of that range before that happens. This is especially true if market mania continues to turn to Ethereum.

In 2020 — the last halving — the price of Bitcoin rose 500% and then apparently doubled in 2021. The same pattern this year would put the price over $200,000 by the end of the year. That seems ridiculous at this point, as does the difference in market cap compared to 2020. But this year does look bullish.

Bitcoin price in June. Over $47,000.

J.W. Verret, Associate Professor, George Mason Law School:

In the short term, I have no actual usage data to work with as there is not a lot of volume. Short term price predictions are just guesses based on the absence of new information about how many speculators will be willing to jump into the pool with me over the next six months.

In the long run, I believe the dollar has no future, AI will prefer decentralized currencies, and remote work is suited to cryptocurrency incentives. Bitcoin is currently the best option for the future.

Bitcoin price in June. If you forced me to estimate, I would say price volatility dropped during the regular sell-off during tax season and then continued to rise above the current price and approach $50,000.