US Election 2024: Crypto Voters May Become the Kingmakers

Economic trends, immigration policies, climate change, abortion rights...these hot issues are always present in the US election.

But a new wedge issue is emerging in American politics — one that will drive millions of voters to the polls, become a policy that cuts across partisan and demographic lines and may well decide the outcome of the next presidential election.

This is cryptocurrency.

Crypto holders will coalesce into a more consistent voting bloc in 2024 than they did in 2020. Millions of voters live in key swing states where the last presidential election was decided by the narrowest of margins. Millions of them see cryptocurrency as a make-or-break issue at the ballot box, according to research from Morning Consult.

The rise of the crypto-voter

The rise of the crypto electorate has directly paralleled the rise of crypto as an asset class.

Don’t forget, much of the last Bitcoin bull run occurred after the 2020 presidential election. A few months later, Michael Saylor sported a laser-eye avatar, corporate brands began tweeting “WAGMI,” and Elon Musk promoted Dogecoin on a popular TV show.

Biden’s election has ushered in the most explosive period of retail adoption in the industry’s history. The last bull run created a new crop of millionaires and a larger number of crypto voters.

Today, one in five Americans own digital assets, which is 52 million people . Perhaps most striking is the political makeup of this population: According to survey data from Coinbase and Morning Consult, 22% of cryptocurrency holders surveyed are Democrats, 18% are Republicans, and 22% are independents. In addition, 60% are Generation Z or Millennials, and 41% are minorities.

Young, diverse, and bipartisan. These are three of the main characteristics of the crypto constituency. While this voting bloc was not a significant factor in 2020, it is already poised to play a huge role this November.

Winning the Crypto Voter Vote: The Key to the White House?

Swing voters decide elections. That’s why campaigns are building out their teams in battleground states like New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Morning Consult conducted a poll to gauge cryptocurrency sentiment in these four swing states. In the process, it found that millions of Americans consider digital assets a top issue.

The most important finding? About 18% of voters in these states, or 3.4 million people, own digital assets. Surprisingly, 55% of them said they would be unlikely to vote for a candidate who discourages cryptocurrency values. Those values ​​include the belief that the current economic system is unfair and favors big business, and a corresponding desire for a decentralized web3 economy.

In other words, in these four swing states alone, cryptocurrency could determine the votes of as many as 1.9 million voters, enough to swing the election.

These swing states are often decided by the tiniest of margins. In 2020, for example, Biden led Trump by just 82,000 votes in Pennsylvania and by just 34,000 votes in Nevada.

Given the rapid growth of this voting bloc, a candidate could redraw the electoral map in 2024 simply by taking a pro-crypto stance. The numbers paint a clear picture: Whichever presidential candidate wins the crypto vote has all but secured the keys to the White House.

The crypto vote is inherently up for grabs, and the sheer size of this voting bloc presents a massive opportunity for political candidates. To better understand this opportunity, I reached out to Coinbase’s Head of Policy, Faryar Shirzad.

“There are tens of millions of Americans involved in the crypto economy,” said Faryar Shirzad . “When I speak with innovators across the country, their enthusiasm for blockchain is incredible. Any politician who ignores this passionate community is missing out on an important and positive part of the American electorate.”

Biden, Bitcoin, and Young Voters

Here’s the irony: Despite the political benefits of embracing Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, the main contenders in both parties — Joe Biden and Donald Trump — are staying away from the subject.

President Biden, for his part, appears to have little interest in engaging with this group of voters. In fact, many of his policies have alienated digital asset holders.

Last year, for example, President Biden accused "rich cryptocurrency investors" of taking advantage of tax loopholes supported by "MAGA Republicans." Meanwhile, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has sought to clamp down on cryptocurrency exchanges and protocols through enforcement regulation, an approach that has been condemned by several members of Congress. One of his strongest allies in the Senate, Senator Elizabeth Warren, has assembled an "anti-crypto army" to wage "war" on the industry.

Will the administration’s hostility toward cryptocurrencies come back to haunt Biden in November?

Cameron Winklevoss, co-founder and president of Gemini, seems to think so. In a post on X, Winklevoss expressed his view that Senator Warren and the SEC chairman's "war on cryptocurrencies will alienate an entire generation of future Democrats." In Winklevoss's view, the duo could become the ones who hold Biden's team back, reminding voters of his administration's crackdown on cryptocurrency companies and investors.

Given Biden’s aggressive approach to digital asset regulation, will Trump take the opposite tack to differentiate himself from his rival?

Trump has a chance?

By simply embracing Bitcoin and decentralized values, Trump can poach crypto-supporting Democrats and independents who would otherwise vote for Biden. He can contribute to 1.9 million people in swing states like New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, for whom cryptocurrency is a top concern. Trump lost three of these four states by narrow margins in 2020. But he can win them back by catering to crypto voters.

There’s just one complication: Trump has previously expressed skepticism about digital assets. “Bitcoin, it looks like a scam,” Trump said in a June 2021 interview with Fox Business. “I don’t like it because it’s another currency that’s competing with the dollar.”

So is Trump set in his ways? Is he doomed to remain forever against Bitcoin?

Although Trump has taken a hard line on cryptocurrencies in the past, there is growing evidence that his stance has softened over the past two years. For example, in December 2022, he launched a series of NFT trading cards to win support. Strike while the iron is hot, he once again launched a new series of "Mugshot" NFTs at the beginning of the year. According to financial disclosure documents, this new NFT financing came after a report showed that Trump once had $2.8 million in cryptocurrency on an Ethereum wallet.

Trump has entered the cryptocurrency field by trying NFT. Will he continue to bombard Bitcoin? His words and deeds on encryption will not only change his financial portfolio, but also the outcome of the 2024 election.