Halving Day is coming, big investors increase their holdings by more than $1.2 billion in BTC

The halving day has arrived. According to data provided by btc.com , the BTC halving is expected to occur around 9:00 pm Eastern Time, when miners’ rewards will be cut from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

The crypto market fluctuated and consolidated amid sticky inflation in the United States and increasing international geopolitical tensions. According to Bitpush data, Bitcoin plummeted to a low of $59,590 after Israel launched an attack on Iran last night, but rebounded during Friday's trading, hitting an intraday high of $65,500 during the midday session, and then fell back to the $64,300 support level at the time of writing .

Altcoins close the week on a positive note

The altcoin market closed out the week mixed, with the majority of the top 200 tokens recording gains on Friday.

Saga (SAGA) led the way with a 24.5% gain, JITO (JTO) rose 17.3%, and dogwifhat (WIF) rose 17%. Ribbon Finance (RBN) fell 13.2%, leading the decline, followed by Livepeer (LPT) down 6.9% and Helium (HNT) down 4.9%.

The current overall cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.34 trillion, with Bitcoin’s market capitalization dominance at 54.1%.

The sell-off in big tech stocks took its toll on the stock market, with the S&P and Nasdaq closing down 0.88% and 2.05%, respectively, while the Dow rose 0.56%. Friday marked the S&P's sixth straight losing streak, its longest of the year.

Much of the weakness in the entire market can be attributed to the signals released by the Federal Reserve on the issue of interest rate cuts. The latest comments from several Fed officials indicate that there may be no rate cuts in 2024 as inflation remains high.

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed 205 basis points higher than at the beginning of the week, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.15%.

Big investors buy the bottom again, buying $1.2 billion worth of Bitcoin

Blockchain analytics firm IntoTheBlock 's "Large Holder Net Flow" metric shows that Bitcoin addresses holding at least 0.1% of the supply added 19,760 BTC on Friday, worth more than $1.2 billion, at an average price of $62,500. IntoTheBlock said in a post: "Bitcoin whales may finally be buying on dips. Historically, accumulation by these addresses often precedes increases in Bitcoin prices."

“The Bitcoin ‘danger zone’ (orange area in the chart below), where pre-halving pullbacks tend to occur, has completed its mission,” cryptocurrency analyst Rekt Capital said in an article published on X on April 19. “In this danger zone, Bitcoin has produced two -18% pullbacks, and the halving is today, which means that the ‘danger zone’ is now officially over.”

Trends after halving

The halving is another exciting moment in Bitcoin’s history, with some fearing that it could become a “sell the news” event, while others believe the halving is already priced in.

Ryan Grace, head of tastycrypto, said in a Bloomberg interview that he does not believe the halving date is a catalyst for price action — it is likely a ' sell the news' event. Traders have already bought Bitcoin before the halving and expect the correction to be short-lived. Using the recent ETF approval as a reference point, BTC corrected -20% after the news.

He added: “Previous halving cycles have had no clear conclusion, with the price of Bitcoin at -10% one month after the 2016 halving and +8% one month after the 2020 halving. In both periods, the price of Bitcoin fluctuated within a 20% range within a month after the halving date.”

As for how Bitcoin will perform in the 6 to 18 months after the halving, Grace concluded: “If this cycle follows the halving cycle of the past 4 years, we may see BTC prices exceed $150,000 at the peak. More importantly, the existence of ETFs and increased global liquidity will drive the price increase after the halving, rather than the halving itself.”

Ryze Labs analysts said in a report that the macro environment remains one of the influencing factors that investors need to pay attention to.

“Over the weekend, markets experienced a broad sell-off that affected both traditional and crypto assets as geopolitical tensions escalated in the Middle East. This came after Iran launched a drone attack on Israel, sparking concerns about further action by Israel or its allies,” the analysts said.

During these tensions, Bitcoin fell to a low of $60,800 before rebounding to $65,000, while most altcoins fell by around 25-30%. “This movement highlights that Bitcoin is not yet viewed as a ‘safe haven’ asset like ‘digital gold’ by institutional investors, as no significant inflows have occurred during this period,” said Ryze Labs analysts .

Data shows that BTC funding rate turned sharply negative, with the annualized rate falling to this year's low of between -40% and -60%. Similarly, BTC's 3-month annualized basis also hit an annual low of 4.85% in the short term. These indicators reflect the strong bearish sentiment in the market, driven by widespread liquidation of long positions and increased short selling.

Ryze Labs noted that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's hawkish remarks "initially stirred the market," but "the market reaction was relatively mild, indicating potential seller fatigue," and analysts suggested continuing to pay attention to upcoming inflation data as a key indicator of the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy.