The Air Force wins the $62,000 tug-of-war, and the downward channel may have been opened

On Wednesday, the cryptocurrency market experienced another day of volatile consolidation. Bitcoin fell under pressure early in the trading session, and a fierce battle between bulls and bears occurred near the $62,000 support level in the afternoon. According to Bitpush data, Bitcoin fluctuated between $61,430 and $63,020 throughout the day, struggling around $62,000 for most of the time. As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $61,512, down 2.36% in 24 hours.

U.S. stocks also trended lower at the opening, rebounded during the session, and the major indices closed mixed. As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.44%, the S&P 500 was flat, and the Nasdaq fell 0.18%. The U.S. dollar index was flat on the day, and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose 81 basis points to 4.494%.

Altcoins were mostly trading in the red, with only 20 of the top 200 coins seeing gains on Wednesday. UMA (UMA) surged 50.9% to $4.03, FTX Token (FTT) gained 18.3%, and Tellor (TRB) rose 17.6%. Meme token Dogwifhat (WIF) was the biggest loser, falling 13.8%, followed by Worldcoin (WLD) at 13% and Livepeer (LPT) at 12%.

The overall cryptocurrency market cap is currently $2.28 trillion, with Bitcoin’s dominance rate at 53.5%.

Possible drop to $60,000

“Any daily close below $62,100 or prolonged inactivity would be considered a stop loss,” JA Maartunn, an analyst at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, warned in a daily market report.

Analysts at Secure Digital Markets said: “Since the beginning of this week, Bitcoin has been retreating from the 50-day moving average. Prices could fall to the $60,000 level, especially if Bitcoin ETFs continue to see large outflows. If this outflow continues, it could cause BTC to fall below $60,000 and potentially revisit the recent low of $56,500.”

Data provided by Farside showed that spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $15.7 million on Tuesday, mainly attributed to Grayscale's GBTC, which recorded $28.6 million in outflows after two consecutive days of positive inflows, and BlackRock recorded zero inflows.

"However, market sentiment is currently cautiously optimistic about staying above the $60,000 mark and working towards recovery. Observers are closely watching the performance of the broader stock market during this earnings season, which can provide insights into liquidity conditions," the analysts noted.

Aaron Evans, head of fundamental operations at the Moonbeam Foundation, also believes that market optimism is rising as institutions increasingly adopt Bitcoin and Fidelity reports that pension funds are exploring allocations to Bitcoin ETFs.

“While Bitcoin has not reached the new highs everyone expected after the halving, there is still some bullish sentiment in the crypto market,” Evans said in a report. “AI tokens continue to perform well, especially with the excitement of NVIDIA’s earnings report. This shows that investors are once again trusting cryptocurrencies more as they look for other tokens to invest in. Traders are always looking for new ways to make money, and when they see increased institutional interest and other assets performing well, they will likely diversify their portfolios. This is similar to how memecoins have performed in the market.”

“As Bitcoin continues to perform well or recover, traders will look to similar assets that can offer them more gains,” he concluded. “We should expect more diversification in digital assets as investors rebuild trust in the industry.”

But market analyst Orson Fawley said Bitcoin “continues to fluctuate within a long-term descending price channel” and “expected to experience further declines and corrections if the bulls do not break out of the price channel.”

He noted: “BTCUSD recently broke the strong support area of ​​$63,000, which continues to favor sellers in the short term as the signals sent by the EMAs and resistance support a new wave of selling, with profit booking around the $61,000 area as the bears start to take control of the trend.”

Market analyst Maximillian FX on the X platform said that the formation of a "triple top pattern" suggests that further downside is coming, which indicates a good opportunity to short.

Maximillian explained that BTCUSD is currently experiencing a corrective recovery, finding support at $62,180, however, overcoming the $63,000 resistance level remains a challenge and goal. According to statistics, the strongest volatility is after a breakout. A breakout and consolidation below $63,000 could trigger a sharp decline in the area of ​​strong liquidity on the chart. There is further evidence that BTCUSD will reverse once the resistance level is reached, as shown by the 34.89 EMA, which shows signs in favor of the bears maintaining their position.

Maximillian warned that technically, a correction is likely from the Fibonacci 0.618 level, and a break below $62,180 would lead to further short selling targets, possibly reaching the $60,856 mark, (consistent with the test of the 1.618 Fibonacci number).