The market is waiting for non-agricultural data, Standard Chartered predicts that BTC will sprint to $100,000 before the election

Financial markets largely remained on the sidelines on Thursday after the latest U.S. unemployment claims data came out at 229,000, much higher than the 220,000 economists expected.

At the close, stocks were mixed, with the Dow up 0.20%, the S&P flat, and the Nasdaq down 0.09%.

According to Bitpush data, Bitcoin was trading between $70,095 and $71,651 on Thursday, less than 5% below its all-time high. As of press time, Bitcoin rebounded slightly and was trading at $70,771, down 0.6% in 24 hours.

Altcoins fell in the afternoon sell-off, with more declines than gains among the top 200 tokens by market cap. HIghstreet (HIGH) bucked the trend with a 14.9% gain, followed by Livepeer (LPT) up 11% and ConstitutionDAO (PEOPLE) up 9.1%. Dog (DOG) fell the most, down 10%, Bitget Token (BGB) down 9.9%, and Echelon Prime (PRIME) down 9.3%.

The current overall market value of cryptocurrencies is $2.61 trillion, and Bitcoin’s market share is 53.2%.

The market awaits non-agricultural data

While some traders pointed to the data as another sign that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates as early as September, most were awaiting tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report (NFP), considered a key indicator of the health of the U.S. economy.

Given that the previous US ADP report showed that private sector employment increased by 152,000 in May, lower than the forecast of 175,000, it indicates that the labor market is cooling.

Bitfinex said a nonfarm payrolls report that is in line with or below expectations “could reinforce the perception of an economic slowdown, which could lead to increased market volatility. Investors may anticipate further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, which could affect both the stock and cryptocurrency markets.”

The European Central Bank (ECB)'s interest rate cut on Thursday also had an impact on the market. The ECB implemented its first interest rate cut in five years, lowering the interest rate to 3.75%. The move is aimed at stimulating economic growth. In theory, the interest rate cut could weaken the euro, which could lead to increased demand for risky assets such as Bitcoin. The increase in liquidity brought about by monetary easing may also support risky assets including cryptocurrencies.

Wall Street now sees a 70% chance of a rate cut in September, up from 50% a week ago, the CME FedWatch tool shows.

Standard Chartered Bank says Bitcoin price could reach $100,000 before US election

Geoffrey Kendrick, head of foreign exchange and digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, predicted in a report: "As the US election approaches, I expect BTC to reach $100,000 by the end of the year, and if Trump wins, then BTC will reach $150,000. The Biden administration recently showed pragmatism in approving a spot Ethereum ETF, but Biden then vetoed efforts to repeal SAB 121. Therefore, Trump's attitude towards crypto is still friendlier than Biden."

Standard Chartered Bank analysts pointed out that if the non-farm payrolls data to be released tomorrow is "positive", he expects Bitcoin prices to hit a record high over the weekend, which will "open the door" for Bitcoin prices to break through $80,000 by the end of June.

Kendrick added that he still stands by his predictions of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of this year and $200,000 by the end of 2025.

The impact of non-farm data on prices

Looking ahead to tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report, Bitfinex analysts said, “Lower interest rates and increased liquidity often drive investors toward alternative assets like Bitcoin. A positive reaction in the stock market could spread to the cryptocurrency market, potentially helping Bitcoin secure a weekly close above $70,000. Conversely, if the non-farm payrolls report significantly exceeds expectations, it could signal a stronger economy, potentially raising concerns about tighter monetary policy. This could put downward pressure on Bitcoin as investors turn to traditional assets.”

Aurelie Barthere, chief research analyst at Nansen, also believes that the NFP report is an important data point that can help provide insight into future interest rate trends.

Aurelie Barthere said in a report: "The ADP data, along with a range of real activity data (such as retail sales, first quarter GDP, capital expenditures, etc.), paints a picture of slowing real growth and a cooling labor market in the United States. As long as economic growth slows but does not tighten, it is likely to push US interest rates lower and become a tailwind for cryptocurrencies."

Barthere believes: "So far, we can't say that the economic growth slowdown is too severe. For example, the service sector is performing well, as evidenced by the latest PMI business survey. Fed Chairman Powell said that if unemployment rises and inflation remains high, he would be inclined to cut interest rates (i.e. give priority to the employment part), so when the growth data is weak (but not too weak), investors are pricing in a 'Fed put option'. Friday's employment data may well be the next major data point in this narrative."