Mt.Gox fund transfer clues tracking and market interpretation

On July 22, the Mt.Gox wallet address changed again. The Mt.Gox address 1JJ8oBaqcuLUcCkLwaVqdvJJpERYKwukJz transferred 0.000017 BTC to four wallets belonging to Bitstamp.

Figure 1: Analysis of Mt.Gox fund transfers on July 22

Although the transaction amount is low, it is very likely that Mt.Gox is testing the address before transferring a large amount of money. Mt.Gox has previously performed such operations before transferring money to the Kraken exchange.

Since last week, the highly anticipated compensation work of the Mt.Gox exchange has begun. Mt.Gox has transferred Bitcoin to Kraken, BitBank and SBI VC Trade. Among all five exchanges that can handle compensation, only Bitstamp and Bitgo have not received Bitcoin. Today's operation may mean that Mt.Gox will transfer funds to the last two exchanges.

search.ichainfo.com tracked and analyzed the outflow of funds from the Mt.Gox exchange. Through the analysis of the fund flow, it was found that the funds in the Mt.Gox wallet mainly flowed into six addresses. Among them, the subsequent fund changes in four addresses require investors' special attention.

The core address we analyzed is 1JbezDVd9VsK9o1Ga9UqLydeuEvhKLAPs6, which is the early collection address of Mt.Gox exchange funds. On May 28 of this year, 141,619 bitcoins were collected in this address through 8 transactions.

Figure 2: Mt.Gox capital analysis chart, source: search.ichainfo.com

All bitcoins in this address have been transferred out. For example, the address received by Kraken Exchange on July 16 came from this address. The funds in this address have two main destinations. One is transferred to exchanges that support Mt.Gox compensation, including Kraken, BitBank and SBI VC Trade. The other is other addresses controlled by Mt.Gox.

Figure 3: There is no bitcoin in the address 1JbezDVd9VsK9o1Ga9UqLydeuEvhKLAPs6. Source: search.ichainfo.com

Among these destinations, search.ichainfo.com found that Mt.Gox’s funds mainly flowed into the following six addresses:

3JQieEzccKjFS34oW8KZSGBDndiH1YyFrE is suspected to be the Kraken exchange address. 48,641 BTC were transferred to this address on July 16. Currently, the funds have not been moved. We need to pay close attention to it in the future. The transfer of funds from this address may mean that Kraken has begun to compensate users for Bitcoin.

bc1qrv0v2l9ekrx3lnkeusrzvu2hqyha6ex94nxumlhec4mrye8njm7sn7e4v4 is the BitBank hot wallet address, with a total of 1,544 BTC transferred in.

34X3kp5PTrqR9dA9Zf9XwivpE6tnNJdHKB is the SBI VC Trade hot wallet address, with a total of 1,157 BTC transferred in.

18vjnBHWAxU4CPGPqF7Gp9JyqdVBHDct9b is the Mt.Gox cold wallet address, which currently holds 42,587 BTC. The transfer of funds from this address needs to be closely monitored.

1AsHPP7WcGnDLzxW2bUa2FcbJP3eZVEqpx is the Mt.Gox cold wallet address, which currently holds 47,228 BTC. The transfer of funds from this address needs to be closely monitored.

1HRAprcXCzx1YqYv7dcCcDzf3vYVGPv3b2 is the Mt.Gox cold wallet address, which currently holds 526 BTC. Although the amount of coins held is not large, the transfer of funds from this address also needs attention.

Figure 4: Mt.Gox main funds destination address, source: search.ichainfo.com

We divide the market selling pressure caused by Mt.Gox's Bitcoin compensation into three stages: the initiator, the outbreak, and the harvest period. From the recent trend of Bitcoin, after the German government's selling pressure ended on July 12, the price of Bitcoin is gradually coming out of the previous low. However, when investors began to regain their optimism, the selling pressure of Mt.Gox had just begun.

As of press time, the Mt.Gox address has started the transfer test of small amounts of Bitcoin again. Currently, the compensation is in the early preparation stage, and most customers have not received the Bitcoin paid by the exchange. After nearly ten years of passive lock-up, the income of these customers has exceeded 20 times. Obviously, after these years of difficult complaints and compensation processes, most customers will choose to sell and cash in profits as soon as they get the coins. If nearly 100,000 Bitcoins are sold in August, it will once again have a huge impact on the market. It is believed that the shorts will use the Mt.Gox incident to attack the market. search.ichainfo.com will closely monitor the on-chain transfer trends of these addresses. Please pay attention to the follow-up tracking and analysis.