Legendary Trader GCR: How I Made $100 Million with $1,000

As one of the most famous and mysterious traders in the Crypto field, GCR started with $1,000 and invested $100 million.

So this is his trading strategy.

I heard of GCR a long time ago, but wanted to learn more about it systematically, not because he made $100 million, but because I saw an article by @7upDAO that mentioned some unknown stories.

It turns out that GCR was not a trader. It turns out that he said so many golden sentences and he also had a small group. This series of curiosity made me start to research GCR. Today I will tell you his story, hoping it will be helpful to your trading.

GCR inherited his name "Gigantic-Cassocked-Rebirth" on the FTX exchange. He has never publicly talked about his background. In early 2021, GCR began to be active on Twitter, posting his judgment on the market and details of his trading activities. At that time, he was not famous and had only a small number of followers on Twitter.

He has been a big fan of reverse trading since the beginning.

One of his earliest posts detailed his shorting of GameStop (GME) stock driven by retail investors in January 2021, which is also one of his typical contrarian trading examples.

On Twitter, he mentioned that he started with only $1,000 and all his wealth growth came from trading alone. For him, trading was the only thing that worked.

GCR says he is a hard worker. When the market is good, he encourages other traders to invest more than 120 hours a week to improve their skills. He encouraged his readers to take a break at the end of 2022, but he himself said that he has not taken a day off for nearly 3 and a half years.

What is GCR's trading style?

GCR is known for its contrarian trading, often choosing to short when the market is generally bullish.

He emphasizes the importance of patience and finding a unique edge, a strategy that has allowed him to succeed in volatile markets.

He often mentioned the concept of a "Tree of Life" in his tweets in 2021, which is the key to finding opportunities in the market. Many people began to speculate what this concept represents, and then GCR said that the "Tree of Life" is actually just a willingness to bet against the consensus view.

He realized that in the market, most people's views are often wrong, and real opportunities are often hidden in the opposite direction of the consensus. GCR's reverse thinking strategy reflects a deep understanding of the mainstream behavior of the market and a precise grasp of group psychology.

He is also a big fan of George Soros and often mentions Soros's views and discusses the concepts of reflexivity and reverse thinking. GCR is deeply influenced by these theories and applies them to his trading strategies:

Find profit margins and opportunities in the market through reverse thinking, and achieve success through unique trading decisions.

In fact, I also heard this point of view in an interview with @benchmark, which was called "Non-Consensus Investing". In fact, my purchase of Polkadot in 2020 and everyone's purchase of SOL last year were "non-consensus investments."

So what is "non-consensus"? I think the best criterion is when a group of people form an opinion but it is illogical, then you can start paying attention, maybe this is a good opportunity.

About GCR Group

In October 2021, GCR began recruiting members for a new team, RebirthDAO, whose goal is to form a decentralized hedge fund by combining the power of many extremely successful traders in the Crypto market.

RebirthDAO’s first trade was an ETF news trade in October 2021 (identifying and leveraging the approval of the Proshares BTC futures ETF), which according to GCR was so successful that they received a news alert that pushed the BTC price from $57.1K to $59K, giving them a valuable time advantage of a few seconds over other news traders.

In the group, GCR requirements are very strict.

Most of the group members are large traders, and their assets may reach tens of millions of dollars or even billions of dollars. The group mainly discusses price topics. He requires every sentence to be rigorous, but occasionally he will touch on other topics, such as the US ZZ or whether Trump can be elected.

In fact, GCR has two small groups, one with about 50 people, and another with about a dozen people. There are some European traders in the group. European traders can be summarized into two characteristics:

First, Europeans may have a mysterious self-confidence that is unique to them;

Second, many of Europe’s cognitions and cultural preferences may be due to its vast land and sparse population, which always leads to a sense of cynicism.

In fact, Europe cannot influence too many markets. Although there are also good traders in Europe, the biggest influence on the market is still American traders, including Wall Street, etc. GCR said that it was the BlackRock CEO who saved the ETF from passing, otherwise, this bull market cycle would not have come so soon.

In addition, the group will count the number of sentences spoken by members every week, and people in it will be forced to make a few price predictions every week, which will then be reviewed, and the worst 20% will be kicked out every week. In summary:

First, control your information input;

Second, find your own alpha following.

GCR began to find ways to profit from what he considered to be an overheated altcoin market through RebirthDAO. At that time, the total value of the entire Crypto market exceeded 3 trillion US dollars. GCR looked for currencies that would have a large number of new coins issued in 2023, and asked his DAO team to collect as much information as possible about the unlocking of token issuance.

Instead of choosing to short BTC or Ethereum, which have the largest market capitalization, RebirthDAO plans to short the weakest batch of altcoins in the market. GCR said he is most interested in those tokens with the largest issuance in the first half of 2022.

The research team used various means to collect this information, not only reviewing documents, but also analyzing on-chain wallets and even directly contacting project team members to understand the scale of their token issuance in 2022.

Sometimes GCR will use code words to mention a certain time period or a certain currency, and group members need to research to understand what happened during this period and which currencies may be affected. Big traders usually don’t tell you the answer directly, but give some hints that you need to interpret on your own.

GCR's brilliant achievements

The most famous story about GCR should have happened in 2021. At that time, he began to be bearish on the market and short some altcoins at the top of the market, and made a lot of money. He was also dubbed the "short-selling master" and became a "legendary trader".

During 2021-2022, GCR was active on the FTX exchange, and his name was always on the FTX top trader rankings.

But GCR has always maintained an anonymous identity. As mentioned earlier, he also publicly stated through social platforms that he has no background, started from scratch with $1,000, and accumulated wealth through trading in the crypto market. It is said that his highest assets have reached $124 million.

GCR had predicted that if 20 ETH were invested in SHIB and held for 5 months, a return of $40 million might be achieved. In the end, this prediction was verified and only 2 ETH were needed to achieve it.

During April and May 2021, he issued many bearish warnings, strongly opposing popular bullish views such as the "super cycle" promoted by "popular" traders in 2021, represented by 3AC's Su Zhu.

His reasons for supporting his position are sometimes very simple: they are contrary to "mainstream market views."

One of GCR’s most notable trades in early 2021 was a public short position on DOGE on May 9, 2021 — the day Elon Musk appeared on Saturday Night Live.

In the second half of 2021, GCR turned bearish and publicly issued advice, reminding traders to heed his previous warnings - reduce trading under unfavorable conditions and not have any illusions that altcoins can have an "independent trend."

On July 15, GCR published his very famous 2022 bear market prediction in his small group, mentioning that “there will be a long and deep bear market, with little respite for even the strongest projects.”

“Local bottom will be around $20k…Macro/equity top in 2022,…most altcoins will be down 95% or 99%.”

But GCR's bearish attitude does not mean that he will leave the Crypto market. On the contrary, although he remains optimistic about the remaining opportunities in the market in 2021, his strategy in the second half of 2021 shifted to short positions that take advantage of market liquidity outflows. Since then, he has been shorting a large number of altcoins that are weak or strong relative to BTC.

In August, GCR began speculating on NFTs. In addition to trying to buy hundreds of "Pudgy Penguins" NFTs, his address also won a "Sad Doge" NFT in an auction, and he sold this NFT for $2 million a month later.

However, he commented that NFTs are an asset class that is notoriously difficult to gain exposure to, saying: “My NFT investments are seven figures, but represent less than 1% of my net worth, and are part of my broader barbell investing strategy.”

In November 2021, he publicly shorted SHIB.

In 2022, GCR shorted LUNA for $20 million and ultimately made huge profits. This transaction became a landmark case in his career, demonstrating his accurate market judgment.

GCR predicts a lot of things with a high accuracy rate, which is one of the reasons why it is "praised to the world".

For example, he predicted in mid-2023 that Trump would be elected as the next president of the United States with a 90% chance. According to the current trend, the probability is actually very high. GCR bought Trump's MEME COIN at a price of 0.1 or 0.2 US dollars, and it is said that the floating profit exceeded 35 million US dollars soon after. He also predicted the emergence of @friendtech.

GCR's trading philosophy

GCR often shares his trading ideas on Twitter. At first glance, they seem to be obvious conclusions, but if you can really put them into practice, you will get very good returns.

1. Buying in quickly and early is the key to success

To trade MEME, you need to buy in as soon as an interesting early token/narrative emerges and then sell it at the peak of the hype. Buying in after the hype emerges is the biggest mistake.

“People fail because they do the exact opposite: they enter the market slowly and then get greedier and greedier over time until they go all in.”

2. Strong faith

Cryptocurrency is already popular, and funds such as Black Rock have begun investing in cryptocurrencies and RWAs. When you feel that Bitcoin will never rise again, you should do everything you can to prepare for the bull run.

After the collapse of FTX, GCR bought 6,000 SOL when SOL fell to $8, and chose to continue to believe in it and hold all of it until SOL reached $100, thus earning the easiest $550,000 in his life.

“When people stop believing in the future, that’s the peak of doom.”

3. Speculate on new coins

There will be a lot of new coins in the bull market cycle. If you see a project with great potential, the next step is to analyze: "Is the team rich enough or motivated to hype the token?"

If so, the team needs to be more prosperous and can continue to believe in the project.

4. “Bad” doesn’t always mean defeat

A project that takes a long time to build may create the worst token economics in the world, but the token may perform better than other projects. This may be because the project waited too long to get a good market to earn a profit.

So don’t cross these types of projects off your watch list, they can bring more benefits than you think, like $ARKM.

5. Reactions > News

When you see a breaking news story or statement, you don’t have to check its accuracy.

"When news affects prices, market participants often focus on whether it is true. Many times, the truth of the headline is unimportant. It is the market's reaction to the news and how long it lasts that is more instructive."

If the market is severely shaken by incredible news, then go short or consider buying promising tokens.

6. Golden Rule - Leverage profitable tokens and sell losing tokens quickly

Try to imagine a Ponzi scheme like a professional boxer: the winner gets the prize, the loser gets nothing. Many people would rather sell the tokens that are performing well than the tokens that are losing money, and instead increase their investment, which is highly undesirable.

GCR Tips for Newbies

GCR’s advice to young traders is to take the time to find all possible advantages in the markets.

“Even if you live another 80 years, you will never have such easy access to generational wealth.”

1. In the absence of valuation reasons, integers are obvious convergence points for reflexive assets (i.e., either potential support or resistance points), and we need to respect Schelling points. 2022/3/23 (Tell you that on the crypto chart, integer prices often represent this psychological area for people.)

2. I have been telling people for weeks that the biggest threat to any successful project is its own success. Because success breeds imitation, and this is a profit-driven industry that will ruthlessly turn to original derivatives and chase higher upside. 2022/4/8

3. Pairs Trading (also known as hedging trading, this neutral strategy will go short and long at the same time) is an art that has been discarded in the bull market, but if you use this art well, you will win. 2022/9/12

4. Wealth is not wealth before it is realized. When trading volume > market value, it usually means that the rising market is in the final stage. 2023/1/27 (Putting profits in the bag tells you a time to choose to take profits.)

5. Many people fail because they do the exact opposite. I will continue to hold a large spot BTC + ETH position at present, because I believe the market has bottomed out in November last year, and I am still optimistic about the future. 2/5/2023 (In the long run, long-term holders can easily outperform frequent traders.)

6. Those who chase two rabbits will not catch either one. 2023/3/18 (Tell you that you should focus on only one thing at a time.)

In 2024, GCR is still a "big short"

Four months ago, GCR published a series of latest views on the market in a Telegram group, once again becoming the “Big Short”.

About MEME

Someone asked GCR about its views on MEME COINS. GCR predicted that most currencies will be slaughtered. The prices of the new generation of MEME COINS are mainly supported by trading volume (the same players are trading). There is very little on-chain liquidity, which means that capitulation will be much faster than previous cycles.

The Solana ecosystem could break first, followed by Ethereum. We are already seeing the first signs of weakness in “blue chip” MEMEs like WIF.

He said it’s nearly impossible to make a meaningful short position on most of these coins, but he doesn’t want to hold them when the first card falls and the last round of on-chain hypergambling is about to end.

About Ethereum

One group member said: "The stock market is rising and there is an election going on, so I decided to stay long."

GCR responded that updated beliefs are necessary to trade profitably in the market, that Ethereum's L1 is being eaten up by its own L2, and that SOL is being eaten up by the dilution of MEME, through http://pump.fun, etc. There is almost no new altcoin inflow, but thousands of new altcoins are created every day.

However, the above is just GCR’s personal opinion. The market is difficult to predict, DYOR.