BTC aims at $90,000: Who is pushing the price to $100,000?

Since Trump's victory, the crypto market has been booming. At 7:20 am Beijing time on November 12, BTC hit a high of $89,553.2, a 24-hour increase of more than 10%.

Other cryptocurrencies also rose. As of press time, ETH was trading at $3,309.23, up 3.3% in 24 hours; Solana was trading at $217.20, up 3.2% in 24 hours; Dogecoin was trading at $0.3529, up 20% in 24 hours.

What are the driving factors of the current crypto market? How long will it take for BTC to reach the $100,000 mark?

1. What are the driving factors of the crypto market?

1. Post-election era: Trump’s campaign promises come true

It seems that having tasted the sweetness brought by cryptocurrencies and NFTs, Trump's crypto stance has changed from "rejection" in his first term to "support" before this election. As early as July this year, at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference held in Nashville, Trump made a series of shocking remarks at the conference:

Will ensure that the United States becomes the cryptocurrency capital of the planet and the world's Bitcoin superpower; will fire Gray Gensler, the current chairman of the US SEC, on his first day in office. During his tenure as US President, he will never launch a CBDC; promise to maintain a "national strategic Bitcoin reserve" and "never sell" Bitcoin seized by the government; hopes that Bitcoin will be mined, minted and manufactured in the United States...

For more details, please refer to the Golden Finance article "Review of Trump's Bitcoin Conference Speech: Ensuring that the United States Becomes a Bitcoin Superpower"

According to the Washington Post, after winning the election, President Trump is preparing for the U.S. government to take a more relaxed stance on cryptocurrencies. He is looking for candidates for key positions that are friendly to the crypto industry, and his senior advisers are consulting crypto executives on potential changes in federal policies. Initial discussions focused on a range of financial regulators, including the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. According to five people familiar with the matter, Trump advisers considered letting current regulators, former federal officials and financial industry executives take important leadership positions, many of whom have publicly expressed support for cryptocurrencies. They warned that the discussion process is still in its early stages and the list of candidates is still changing. Trump will appoint cabinet members who support cryptocurrencies to fulfill his promise to make the United States the "global cryptocurrency capital." The Trump team even considered listing Robinhood Chief Legal and Compliance Officer Dan Gallagher as a candidate for chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Bipartisan crypto legislation covering stablecoins and market structure would be more likely to pass during a second Trump term, TD Cowen researchers wrote in a report Monday.

Paxos co-founder and CEO Charles Cascarilla also pointed out that "Trump's election has created a real opportunity for a golden age of cryptocurrency. People believe that all the suppressed demand may be released and turn the United States from a laggard in the crypto industry into a leader."

In addition, Trump's move not only pushed BTC to new highs, but other cryptocurrencies also saw a gratifying rise. Bloomberg pointed out: Because people are enthusiastic about the prospects of the cryptocurrency industry under the leadership of President-elect Trump, a wave of speculative bets has been triggered. Among them is DOGE, which has risen by about 50% in the past five days; the most eye-catching is ADA from the Cardano blockchain, which has risen by more than 60% in the same period, which may be driven by the founder of the network, Charles Hoskinson, who discussed plans to cooperate with Washington lawmakers in a podcast. In addition, tokens related to Polygon, Cosmos, Solana and Algorand have all risen more than Bitcoin's five-day increase of about 7% and set a record high. Caroline Bowler, CEO of digital asset exchange BTC Markets Pty, said: "The rising tide lifts all boats, and the prosperity of Bitcoin has quickly spread to altcoins; the entire industry is expected to be a net beneficiary of the Trump administration."

2. USDT issuance

According to Whale Alert, Tether Treasury minted 2 billion USDT on Ethereum at around 1:07 am Beijing time on November 12. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino commented that this was an authorized but unissued transaction, which means it will be used as inventory for the next issuance request and on-chain exchange.

Previously, from November 8 to 10, Tether issued a total of 4 billion USDT.

Since USDT is pegged to the US dollar, each additional USDT is backed by $1. The additional USDT is equivalent to the amount of OTC funds entering the market, which is obviously good for the crypto market. On the other hand, Tether's approach also reflects the investment needs of investors. Under the dual influence of OTC funds entering the market and investors' enthusiasm, the crypto market is booming.

3. Institutions rush in

Recently, many large institutions have been optimistic about cryptocurrencies and have taken practical actions.

On November 11, the founder of MicroStrategy tweeted that he might continue to increase his holdings of BTC. Subsequently, market news pointed out that MicroStrategy had acquired 27,200 BTC at a price of approximately US$2.03 billion, which is approximately US$74,463 per Bitcoin, and achieved a BTC return of 7.3% so far in the quarter and 26.4% so far in the year. As of November 10, 2024, MicroStrategy holds 279,420 BTC at a price of approximately US$42,692 per Bitcoin, and the acquisition price is approximately US$11.9 billion.

Nano Labs, a crypto mining chip designer, saw its shares rise slightly after it announced that it would accept Bitcoin as payment for its goods and services through a merchant account on Coinbase. Nano Labs said it is “taking a proactive stance in the evolving digital economy” as cryptocurrency “adoption continues to grow, particularly among businesses seeking efficient and secure cross-border transactions.” According to Nano Labs, adopting Bitcoin will provide “greater payment flexibility,” but it did not provide any details on whether it intends to keep the cryptocurrency on its balance sheet.

Since Musk has always been a crypto enthusiast, Tesla holds a large amount of Bitcoin. According to data disclosed by Arkham on the X platform, the value of Tesla's Bitcoin holdings owned by Elon Musk has reached $1 billion.

Asset management firm Bernstein also urged investors to increase their investments in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies "as soon as possible."

In addition, according to the Bitcoin Office in El Salvador, El Salvador is still implementing the "1 BTC per day plan". Coincidentally, according to Arkham monitoring, the 12,568 bitcoins held by the Bhutanese government are worth more than $1 billion.

4. Cryptocurrency stocks surge

According to Golden Finance on November 12, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.69%, the S&P 500 up 0.1%, and the Nasdaq up 0.06%; all of which continued to hit record highs. Tesla rose by about 9%, and its total market value surpassed TSMC to rise to seventh place in the U.S. stock market. Cryptocurrency concept stocks rose sharply, with Canaan Inc. (CAN.O) up 41%, MicroStrategy (MSTR.O) up 25%, Coinbase (COIN.O) up 19%, and Trump Media Technology Group (DJT.O) up 4.7%.

When the U.S. stock market performs well, investors' risk appetite will increase, and they will be more willing to invest in the riskier cryptocurrency market. The rise of crypto U.S. stocks will further boost investors' confidence in entering the crypto market.

5. Investor enthusiasm

Market observers say the surge in Google searches for Bitcoin after Trump won the election, coupled with a record high in Bitcoin prices, indicates a renewed interest among retail investors and a wave of new buyers ready to enter the cryptocurrency market. Ryan Chow, co-founder of Solv Protocol, said Trump's victory was "the main catalyst to kick off the next bull market." "In general, retail investors tend to be latecomers because they are influenced by price-related headlines and widespread social attention," said Noelle Acheson, a crypto macro analyst. "Due to the absence of retail investors, market observers can speculate that the crypto cycle is in its early stages, and when retail investors start to flock in, we'll know we're close to the hype peak."

2. Is BTC still far from the $100,000 mark?

1. The $100,000 goal is very reasonable

Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex, said that although it is difficult to predict the price of Bitcoin, the target of $100,000 in a few months "doesn't seem too far-fetched," adding: "Given the bullish momentum, coupled with the fact that the economy has avoided a recession, we expect Bitcoin to have limited downside now. This (the $100,000 target) looks very reasonable."

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, also said that Bitcoin's rise to $100,000 - which means there is still 33% room for growth - "is now possible" because Trump's victory and Republican control of the Senate may make it easier to promote "the expected relaxed regulatory framework" and that Bitcoin at $100,000 "doesn't sound so unreasonable" because its market value is equivalent to "only 10% of the gold market share." He believes that the main catalysts for Bitcoin's future are changes in SEC leadership, cryptocurrency-friendly regulation, and further adoption of cryptocurrencies by large companies. He added that another catalyst could be a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Fadi Aboualfa, head of research at Copper.co, said that by January 20, 2025, when Trump takes office as president, the price of Bitcoin is likely to reach $100,000. After the news of Trump's victory in the election, Aboualfa said in written comments to CNBC: "For Bitcoin, it is worth remembering that Trump's presidency from 2016 to 2020 witnessed two historical high cycles. Although these gains came against the backdrop of a weaker dollar, which is different from today's environment of a stronger dollar. However, given that the Bitcoin spot ETF currently holds about 1.1 million Bitcoins, the momentum is likely to remain positive in the coming months."

CNBC says Bitcoin price could reach $100,000 before the presidential inauguration.

2. Bullish outlook

Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered Bank predicts that Bitcoin will continue to rise through the end of the year, “easily reaching” $100,000 before certain Bitcoin options expire on Dec. 27. “I’m predicting $125,000 by the end of the year, which is the next level, although I note that after the 2016 election, a lot of the Trump-related trading peaked around the inauguration on Jan. 20… So if Bitcoin doesn’t get to $125,000 by Dec. 31, I think it will get there by Jan. 20.”

Kendrick further predicted that a rise in Bitcoin prices could “benefit all investors” given Ethereum and Solana’s recent gains, and that some tokens could outperform Bitcoin. “It seems inevitable that SOL will hit a new all-time high (all-time high of $260 in November 2021) before the end of the year,” Kendrick wrote. “A new all-time high for ETH (4,866 in November 2021) may not happen until about the inauguration. Overall, we think all of these assets will continue to rise, but SOL may perform the best among them.”

Bernstein analysts released a bullish report after the US election, encouraging investors to increase their exposure to the crypto industry as soon as possible. Gautam Chhugani, head of research at Bernstein, said that the Trump administration is expected to adopt pro-crypto policies or appoint a new SEC chairman, which may bring a more friendly regulatory environment to the industry. The report recommends that investors pay attention to spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, publicly listed Bitcoin mining companies, companies holding Bitcoin, and crypto trading platforms such as Robinhood and Coinbase. In addition, Bernstein expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, and recommends investors to buy major digital assets such as BTC, ETH, and SOL.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman posted on the X platform: "World (also known as Worldcoin) has made amazing progress in the past year. I am very proud of the team, especially the leadership of Alex Blania! A rare combination of vision and execution. Overall, I am confident in the bright future of cryptocurrency!"

3. Conclusion

Since the birth of Bitcoin 16 years ago, the Bitcoin market has experienced ups and downs. After experiencing many "death" predictions, the trend has become more and more impressive. At present, Bitcoin has surpassed silver to become the 8th largest asset in the world by market value. "What doesn't kill me will make me stronger." Bitcoin is about to break through the $90,000 mark. Is it still far from the $100,000 goal?