BTC slightly corrects near $100,000, how will it perform in the future?

On November 22, BTC reached a high of $99,588, just a stone’s throw away from the $100,000 mark. This also made the total market value of cryptocurrencies break through $3.5 trillion, setting a new record high, and Bitcoin’s market share exceeded 55%. The market sentiment index shows that it remains in the greed stage, the market activity has increased significantly, and altcoins have generally seen a large increase following the trend of the market.

However, the market poured cold water on the enthusiastic investors at this time. BTC fell back to below $96,000. Long contracts were liquidated in large amounts. The popularity of the Meme project, which had been popular for many days, also declined. Although many institutions are optimistic about the future market, and the forecast market also shows that there is an 85% chance that BTC will reach $100,000 by the end of the year, there are still views that we should not be overly optimistic.

Bullish: $100,000 is just the starting point

VanEck: Reiterates that the target price of $180,000 for Bitcoin in this cycle remains unchanged. Judging from key indicators, this round of rebound seems to have just begun. The perpetual futures funding rate has been above 10% since November 12, indicating that the bullish momentum has strengthened; the current 30-day moving average relative unrealized profit level is about 0.54, which usually indicates that the market will reach a peak in a longer period of time; the search term heat is only 34% of the high in May 2021, indicating that the speculative frenzy has not yet spread, and the re-engagement of retail investors will give Bitcoin room for further gains.

Ripple’s CEO predicts a boom in cryptocurrencies in the United States and says Trump’s emergence as a crypto-friendly president could lead to a better regulatory environment.

CryptoQuant CEO: According to the progress of the bull market in 2017 and 2020, Bitcoin is still in the early stages of price discovery in this bull market. In addition, the on-chain indicator sets the highest price of Bitcoin cycle at $141,000.

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of this year, and by the end of 2025, it may reach $250,000, and Dogecoin may reach $1.

TYMIO founder Verbitskii: By the end of 2024 or early 2025, the price of Bitcoin will be between $100,000 and $120,000 - before President-elect Trump takes office on January 20, 2025. As more traders join the competition, BTC may reach $180,000 by the end of 2025.

Metafide CEO: Bitcoin will definitely reach $100,000 this year, may exceed $250,000 next year, and $500,000 by the end of 2027 may be completely achievable.

EMJ Capital founder: Thanksgiving is usually a springboard for a bullish period for cryptocurrencies, and a real market structure is about to take shape. In addition, the US SEC may have new crypto regulatory policies, and the expansion of global adoption and the US strategic Bitcoin reserves may become important catalysts for Bitcoin, triggering the next round of Bitcoin bull market.

Fund company Intelligent Alpha: Bitcoin will reach $140,000.

Positive events and expectations

The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) has announced plans to launch the first cash-settled index options tied to the spot price of Bitcoin starting Monday, December 2.

During last week's trading days (November 18 to November 22, Eastern Time), Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of US$3.38 billion, reaching a new weekly net inflow record.

On November 22, MicroStrategy completed the issuance of $3 billion in convertible notes to purchase more Bitcoin. Subsequently, the company's founder Michael Saylor issued a statement suggesting that he might increase his holdings of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin mining company MARA has completed a $1 billion convertible note financing, with the proceeds mainly used to purchase Bitcoin and repurchase existing convertible notes due in 2026.

The British newspaper The Times discussed whether pensions should invest in Bitcoin, namely plans to allocate 3% of pension funds to Bitcoin.

In the past 7 days, the balance of Binance's Bitcoin wallet decreased by 20,707.53, and that of Coinbase Pro decreased by 3,322.95.

Galaxy CEO: Almost all members of Trump’s cabinet hold Bitcoin and are staunch supporters of digital assets.

The board of directors of Nasdaq-listed Anixa Biosciences approved the purchase of Bitcoin as a reserve asset to achieve greater shareholder value.

SAIHEAT Limited, a US-listed company, has purchased $1.5 million worth of Bitcoin and currently holds approximately 102 Bitcoins, including pledged and restricted Bitcoins.

Trump’s “Crypto Advisory Committee” will build the previously promised Bitcoin reserve. The committee is expected to provide advice on digital asset policy, work with Congress to advance cryptocurrency legislation, build Trump’s promised Bitcoin reserve, and coordinate among various agencies including the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and the Treasury Department.

Vaneck: The Trump administration will repeal restrictive measures such as the SEC's accounting bulletin and support wider adoption by encouraging banks to provide cryptocurrency custody solutions. In addition, legislation allowing state-chartered banks to issue stablecoins could enhance the United States' dominance in the digital asset ecosystem.

Potential risks and downsides

Bloomberg: Bitcoin's rally has temporarily stalled after approaching the $100,000 level, and may experience consolidation in the short term. The bullish sentiment around Bitcoin is becoming extreme, and as Bitcoin approaches the $100,000 mark, the seller's tendency has intensified. Bitcoin has been extremely overbought since the election, and it is destined to stagnate.

On November 21, Citron said it had hedged its short position in MicroStrategy.

Data shows that open interest in Ethereum futures has exceeded $20 billion, a record high, indicating that more traders are betting on the price of Ethereum to fall. At the same time, the estimated leverage ratio (ELR) has peaked, reflecting a higher reliance on borrowed funds - an approach that amplifies the possibility of rapid liquidation.

Victory Securities: The risk of macro and high-volume negative impacts in the cryptocurrency market has passed, and the risk is more focused on the realization of expectations. Funding Rates have fallen after halving, and the short-term direction of Bitcoin is not one-sided, and the bears are also accumulating strength.

Galaxy CEO: Bitcoin breaking through $100,000 is inevitable, but there may be a pullback. There is a lot of leverage in the cryptocurrency market at present, and the crypto community is already highly leveraged, so a market correction is coming. Stocks like MicroStrategy, which are traded similarly to Bitcoin leverage trading, may face a bigger adjustment.

Glassnode: Bitcoin still has room to rise, but historical trajectory shows that there is a possibility of a major correction.

summary

Since Trump won the election on November 6, Bitcoin has been soaring, from around $70,000 to $100,000. In the past 20 days, short sellers have suffered heavy losses. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin has rebounded from its low point to around $99,000, which still shows that the market is optimistic about the prospects of Bitcoin. However, compared with the market environment half a month ago, it is clear that the crypto market now has more unstable factors. Therefore, investors still need to be wary of hidden risks of decline.