Will this round of Bitcoin peak in 2025?

“Will there be a sudden U-turn in the country one day in the future?”

This is a question left by a reader at the end of an article.

Several years ago, I also wondered whether our country would suddenly make a big turn in encryption policy in the next year?

But over the years, as my observations became more careful and in-depth, I felt that this idea was probably too naive.

We have all heard the saying, “Science has no borders.” I used to extend this saying to the field of technology, and understood it to mean that technology also has no borders.

But now I believe that technology has clear national boundaries.

As far as encryption technology is concerned, some of its inherent features (such as no permission required, censorship resistance, global free flow, etc.) are actually not naturally suitable for a certain type of country.

In such countries, even if encryption technology can have a period of growth, it is only because its inherent functions have not yet triggered the boundaries. Once it triggers the boundaries, its growth process will inevitably come to an abrupt halt.

If certain conditions do not change, it is wishful thinking to expect the development of encryption technology to undergo a major reversal in such a country.

If we put aside national sentiment and look at the characteristics of encryption technology itself, I am afraid that only certain countries in the world are most suitable for encryption technology and encryption assets.

Because since those countries became independent, there has always been a force that is highly vigilant against overly powerful centralized forces. It is precisely because of this force that two types of values ​​have been formed:

One group believes that only a big government can lead the country forward;

Another group believes that a small government is the fundamental way to stimulate the creativity of the entire nation and create a future for the country.

The interaction between these two values ​​has jointly promoted the progress of a country.

What encryption technology requires is exactly the objective environment created by the second type of values.

Although the second type of values ​​does not always dominate the country's course, it always has the opportunity to play a role for a period of time and create a relaxed and free environment during this period.

Once encryption technology encounters such an environment, it will have the opportunity to grow rapidly. And once a country in such an environment also has a strong financial foundation, a superior market environment and outstanding scientific and technological talents, it will be difficult for this country not to become the global encryption capital.

In a series of information released by Trump recently, we can clearly see some of his substantive actions in encryption policy.

For example, there have been reports that he may set up a government department specifically responsible for encryption matters.

In addition, both he, his deputies, and the cabinet members who have been announced (such as the Minister of Finance) have a very friendly attitude towards crypto assets.

I believe that when Trump selected these people, he did not specifically examine their attitudes towards crypto technology and crypto assets. Instead, he followed the old saying that "birds of a feather flock together". People with common values ​​will naturally come together. Because he has such values, the people he chooses will naturally have similar values.

Therefore, I am increasingly convinced that his cabinet will still have something to watch in terms of encryption policy in the future.

There is one more thing that is not directly related to Trump, but I think it is also inextricably linked to his upcoming inauguration:

On November 22, Pennsylvania passed the Bitcoin Bill of Rights with a high vote, and subsequently proposed the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act.

If this "Reserve Act" is passed, it means that Pennsylvania will use Bitcoin as part of the state's reserves. With the precedent of Pennsylvania, I believe that more Republican-controlled states are likely to pass similar bills.

In fact, regardless of whether the federal government will include Bitcoin in its reserves, as long as a considerable number of states in the United States include Bitcoin in their reserves, this will be a huge benefit to Bitcoin.

Recently, many media have said that the recent surge in Bitcoin has overdrawn the favorable policies that the Trump administration is about to introduce.

I don’t think so. I still think the climax will be next year, and this round of Bitcoin’s climax will not end so quickly this year.