How to stay forward-looking in crypto investing?

During the online discussion last Saturday, an audience member asked this question:

When the Bitcoin inscription ecosystem emerged, many enthusiasts, including me, went deep into the inscription ecosystem, but now there are still many OG old players in the inscription ecosystem who have been stubbornly sticking to it and refusing to come out.

Why did I feel that there might be problems with the inscription ecosystem last year? Why did I step out and start a new exploration in the AI ​​agent ecosystem?

My answer at the time was:

This may be related to curiosity. I will try my best to stay interested in new things. Once I find something new, I will take a look at it first, and then I may have new explorations and attempts.

To further specify the implementation methods, I quoted a famous saying of Mr. Hu Shizhi during the discussion:

"Make bold assumptions and verify them carefully."

This sentence was originally used by Mr. Hu Shizhi to describe his method of studying, but I think this method is also very appropriate in the field of investment.

I remember writing repeatedly in my articles:

When it comes to new things and new scenes, I always like to look at their advantages and potential.

If we use this idea to guide ourselves in examining new things, we can, to a certain extent, amplify the prospects and potential that new things may have. It can allow us to see the upper limit of the value that a new thing may generate.

With this upper limit, we have room for imagination when making investments and valuations.

That's a bold assumption.

When I estimate that a new thing has a certain amount of imagination and I am interested in it, I will participate immediately.

I have repeatedly written about my mentality after participating in previous articles:

I will pay more attention to its problems and shortcomings, mainly to see if there are any problems in the following aspects:

Does this track still have prospects? Is the project team still in good shape? Is the project construction continuing to advance?

This is what it means to be careful in verifying.

If there are problems in one or more of these aspects, I will be alert; if there are no major problems, I will continue to hold on, but focus my main energy on exploring new directions.

In this round of the development of the inscription ecosystem, it gave me a lot of room for imagination at the beginning. But later, the development of the entire ecosystem did not make any major breakthroughs in technology, scenarios or applications. I think the main reason is probably the limitations of Bitcoin's own technical architecture.

So after realizing this, I stopped focusing my main energy on this ecosystem and turned to other directions, which led to my later exploration of DeSci and AI agents.

Not only did I experience this kind of turn in this round of market, I also had similar experiences in the previous cycle:

This is the case from initially focusing on the DeFi ecosystem to later turning to NFT.

The reason for the shift was very similar: DeFi was already running out of steam at that time.

Around mid-2021, the entire DeFi ecosystem has basically seen no major innovations and applications. The overall situation of each track has basically taken shape, and new applications have only slight innovations at most, and the thresholds for those slight innovations are not high.

So my main focus began to shift to exploring new directions, and during that exploration I discovered that overseas communities began to enthusiastically pursue NFTs, so from then on my main focus was all on NFTs.

Although my main experience since then has been in NFT, I held on to the DeFi tokens at the time, basically holding them until later when I sold Bitcoin and Ethereum and then sold them all together.