Is $100,000 Bitcoin the end or the beginning? Where are we now? Where will we go in the future?

In recent months, Bitcoin has been fluctuating around $100,000 and has even fallen below $90,000. Some people suspect that the bull market is over, but it is time to recharge their faith.

I am more inclined to believe that this is the last drop.

Dusk bears witness to the true believers.

Bitcoin reaching $100,000 is a certain event and a starting point. I have always believed that BTC is an asset with risk-free and stable returns, but Bitcoin will not stop here, and traditional financial capital will not be so lacking in structure.

At this time, we need to know where we are now and where we will go in the future.

Looking at the longer time dimension, let us review 2024 and look forward to 2025 so that we can clearly see the direction of the market.

1. What do you think about the rapid rise of Bitcoin in 2024?

The rapid rise of Bitcoin is the result of many factors:

The most direct factor is ETFs and the entry of traditional funds;

The indirect factor is that the Federal Reserve is currently in the interest rate cut channel and the liquidity of the capital market has improved;

The long-term factor is policy expectations, expectations of Trump’s future policies;

Finally, there is the impact of Bitcoin’s own cycle. Production will be halved in April 2024, and the incremental rate is already lower than that of gold.

In short, in 2024, it can be said that the right time, right place, and right people have all been gathered. Not only is there the driving force of the external macro-environment, but there is also the industry's own internal driving force.

2. How do you view the future price trend of Bitcoin?

The final price of Bitcoin is very vague and cannot guide investment, so don’t guess the final price. Many institutions predict that Bitcoin will reach US$500,000 or US$1 million in the future, which is worthless.

Therefore, we have to limit ourselves to the short and medium term, that is, to look at the price trend in the next one or two years.

To answer this question, we must first clarify the current market stage: we have entered the second half of the bull market.

In September 2024, when the price of Bitcoin was more than 70,000, everyone was still doubting whether we had really entered a bull market, but when it reached 100,000 Bitcoin, no one doubted it.

According to the cyclical theory, the entire industry is still in the middle of a bull market. Therefore, after the market sentiment reaches extreme greed, there is no need to panic about subsequent pullbacks, as the main uptrend will still come.

For example, in March 2024, the market remained in a greedy state for more than a month, and finally the BTC price reached a temporary high of around US$73,000. It then began to pull back, and the pullback and sideways movement lasted for more than half a year.

If the first wave of the main upward trend was from 16,000 in January 2023 to 72,000 in March 2024, the market entered the second half of the bull market from September 2024 after a long halftime break, and entered the second cycle of the main upward trend.

In this wave of main uptrend, the BTC price will have a short-term decline or remain sideways for several months, but the overall trend is still upward, and this upward cycle will last for about a year.

The bull market is conceived in pessimism, born in despair, grows in skepticism, matures in optimism, and dies in excitement.

Don't doubt it, welcome to the second half of the bull market.

However, whether there will be a third wave in the future, and where the BTC price will go after it breaks through 100,000, no one knows, and no one can guess the top.

All I can say is that after the BTC price breaks through 100,000, the ceiling has been opened, and the market situation in 2025 is worth looking forward to.

Don't guess the top, no one can guess the top. The key is to look at each person's own psychological expectations and profit expectations. For example, if the average cost is 20,000, then 100,000 is already 5 times.

If we only look at the cycles and trends, this cycle will start early, and BTC may reach its historical high in the summer of 2025, which is expected to be around US$150,000.

3. Does the Bitcoin ecosystem have any opportunities?

First, from a macro perspective, where does industry liquidity come from? In fact, it is the old money of traditional financial institutions such as ETFs and RWAs.

The Crypto industry has a multi-level reservoir effect: BTC was the first to take over external liquidity, and ETH used to continue to take over the overflow liquidity, but this round is different. BTC has an ecosystem, so BTCFi has a very high chance of taking over the overflow liquidity of BTC.

The direction of BTC ecology is mainly to release the liquidity of BTC, which requires solving a key problem: how to safely cross-chain BTC? Or not cross-chain, by locking positions, mapping to other chains.

BTC is an asset with the strongest consensus and the highest security, and it is worth building a financial system around BTC.

The next question we need to think about is: where is BTCFi built?

If the first layer issues assets and the second layer develops applications, then BTC Layer2 still has a chance.

BTC Layer2 has three technical solutions: state channel, side chain, and Rollup.

The most orthodox Layer2 is the Lightning Network, which is superimposed with the capabilities of Taproot Assets and is very suitable for issuing stablecoins and payment scenarios.

Wanlian Interconnection: Taking Ethereum as an example, we can solve the problem of multi-chain liquidity fragmentation in advance.

Which one will escape?

In addition to technological innovation, good projects generally meet three characteristics: strong product iteration capabilities, strong marketing capabilities, and wealth-creating effects.

4. Will there be new narrative opportunities for Bitcoin in the future?

Bitcoin is now called "digital gold". I can summarize the future narrative with one concept: "interest-bearing digital gold."

It is a pity that if BTC just lies there, like gold in a bank vault, then the advantages and potential of BTC are not fully realized.

Especially after Trump really uses BTC as a national strategic reserve, BTC will also become a financial reserve for many companies.

What is more critical at this time is to combine BTCFi to turn BTC into an interest-bearing asset (similar to ETH).

In traditional financial markets, interest-earning assets account for more than 90% of total assets, so we can see the importance of interest-earning assets to the financial market.

Take Ethereum for example. After Ethereum switched from the PoW mechanism to the PoS mechanism, due to the staking scenario, Ether can obtain staking income, making Ether an interest-bearing asset. This has spawned a series of financial gameplays in the Ethereum ecosystem.

The Ethereum ecosystem has seen the emergence of a series of innovative financial products such as liquidity staking, re-staking, and liquidity re-staking, which have attracted more liquidity into the ecosystem and brought about a strong wealth effect.

The Bitcoin ecosystem also needs such interest-bearing assets as underlying assets, so that more new ways of playing can emerge and the vitality of the ecosystem can be accelerated.

Now we need to solve this important proposition: How to turn Bitcoin into an interest-bearing asset?

Among them, Babylon, Super Bitcoin and Solv are all valuable attempts.

Imagine a scenario like this: the Lightning Network is a payment network, and the payment is only made with BTC interest or expected future returns, and the principal has not been moved. This is equivalent to us using the time value and future returns of BTC.

This is a very valuable and anticipated scene.

5. Summary

(1) Regarding the trend of BTC in 2025: We only look at the cycle and trend. This cycle starts early, and the peak of BTC in this cycle may appear around the summer of 2025, which is expected to be around US$150,000.

(2) Opportunities in the BTC ecosystem: BTCFi and BTC Layer2. BTCFi will first take over the overflow liquidity of BTC, and BTCFi is built on BTC Layer2.

(3) BTC’s future narrative: interest-bearing digital gold. BTC’s next narrative is to become an interest-bearing asset. Currently, Babylon, Super Bitcoin, and Solv have made many valuable and relatively successful attempts.

Bitcoin can at most trap you, but it won’t cut you.

If you want to make a diamond hand, make a diamond hand for Bitcoin.