OCC policy implementation: the new turning point of the crypto industry and the interweaving interpretation of market sentiment

introduction

On March 7, 2025, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) issued Interpretation Letter 1183, marking a major turning point in the regulatory framework of the U.S. banking industry in the field of crypto. This new policy removes the requirement for banks to obtain prior regulatory approval to conduct crypto business, allowing national banks and federal savings associations to directly participate in the custody of crypto assets, issue U.S. dollar stablecoins, and operate blockchain nodes. The implementation of this policy not only paves the way for the integration of traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem, but also caused sharp fluctuations in market sentiment and subtle ups and downs in Bitcoin prices in the past 24 hours. This article will focus on the OCC policy, deeply analyze its impact on the crypto industry, and explore the multiple meanings of this event in combination with the current market sentiment and changes in Bitcoin trading data.

1. The core and breakthrough of OCC policy

Policy Details

The core of the OCC's new policy is "removing obstacles". Specifically:

• Crypto asset custody: Banks can directly store crypto asset private keys for customers, providing higher security than existing wallets.

• Stablecoin issuance: Allow banks to hold stablecoin reserves and issue digital currencies pegged to the US dollar to compete with USDT, USDC, etc.

• Blockchain nodes: Banks can become validators of distributed ledgers, directly participate in network consensus, and improve the security and credibility of blockchain.

At the same time, the OCC revoked the "Cautionary Statement" jointly issued with the FDIC and the Fed in 2023, which had suppressed banks from entering the field by emphasizing the liquidity and market risks of crypto assets. This policy adjustment explicitly requires banks to conduct crypto business under the traditional risk management framework and no longer set up additional regulatory barriers.

Historical background

Since the OCC first allowed banks to provide crypto custody services in 2020, the attitude of US regulators towards crypto has undergone a transformation from cautious exploration to gradual opening. The cautious statement in 2023 was once seen as a continuation of "Operation Chokepoint 2.0", which restricted the cooperation between banks and crypto companies. Now, under the promotion of the Trump administration (the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Executive Order was signed on March 7), the OCC's new policy is interpreted as the fulfillment of the promise to "end crypto banking restrictions", marking the shift of regulation from "containment" to "integration".

Breakthrough significance

• Accelerated entry of institutions: As the mainstay of traditional finance, the participation of banks will inject stable funds and technical support into the crypto market, which may boost the long-term value of assets such as Bitcoin.

• Reshaping the competitive landscape: Stablecoins issued by banks may challenge existing giants (such as Tether) and reshape the DeFi and payment ecosystem.

• Decentralization challenges: The addition of bank nodes may increase the risk of network centralization and trigger controversy in the community over the "decentralized spirit."

2. Immediate response of market sentiment

X platform sentiment observation

In the past 24 hours, discussions on social media X reflected the market's mixed emotions about OCC policy:

• Optimists: Users such as @0xJamesTang call it "the invisible nuclear bomb in the bear market", believing that bank nodes and stablecoins will pave the way for the entry of institutional funds, which will be beneficial to the crypto ecosystem in the long run.

• Cautious users: Some users (such as @jianguotz) pointed out that although the policy will bring regulatory clarity, it may also exacerbate the contradiction between decentralization and environmental issues, and the short-term effects remain to be seen.

• Pessimists: Market liquidity was sluggish over the weekend and there was a policy digestion period. User @otakustw mentioned that "Bitcoin continues to fall, and altcoins may have opportunities," reflecting uncertainty about short-term trends.

Emotional drivers

• Positive expectations: OCC policy is seen as "endorsement of traditional finance", boosting investors' confidence in institutional participation.

• Weekend effect: March 9 was Sunday, market trading volume was low, and sentiment fluctuations were not fully converted into price momentum.

• Uncertainty: The banks’ specific implementation plans are not yet clear, and investors are waiting for more details.

3. Bitcoin Price Fluctuations and Market Dynamics

After the OCC policy was released (March 7), the price of Bitcoin briefly rose to $92,000, and then fell back below $90,000 due to low trading volume over the weekend, with a 24-hour drop of about 2%-3%.

• Changes in trading volume: The average daily trading volume shrinks on weekends and is lower than the weekday level, reflecting the wait-and-see sentiment of the market.

• Performance of altcoins: Ethereum may adjust along with Bitcoin, while some Layer-2 tokens (such as ARB, OP) may rebound slightly (5%-10%) due to the positive effects of bank nodes.

Causes of Fluctuation

• Short-term pressure: Insufficient liquidity over the weekend limits the immediate realization of policy benefits, and retail selling exacerbates adjustments.

• Medium-term potential: If banks run nodes or issue stablecoins in the coming weeks, it may push up Bitcoin computing power and network activity, supporting price recovery.

• External factors: The OCC policy overlaps with Trump’s executive order on March 7, and the market expects that institutional funds will gradually enter the market in Q2.

IV. Long-term impact of OCC policies

Industry level

• Reshaping the role of banks: Traditional banks may become "new players" in the crypto market, providing custody, payment and node services to compete with CEXs such as Coinbase and Binance.

• Stablecoin market: Bank-issued US dollar stablecoins may weaken the dominance of Tether (USDT) and promote compliance competition.

• Regulatory coordination: The OCC’s new policy may prompt the SEC, CFTC and other institutions to accelerate the formulation of encryption rules and form a unified framework.

Market Level

• Funding structure: The proportion of institutional funds may increase from the current 30% to 40%-50%, reducing market volatility.

• User growth: Banks’ reach of traditional users (far more than crypto-native users) will accelerate industry adoption, potentially adding millions of new users.   

• Risk point: Bank centralization may trigger community backlash, and it is necessary to balance decentralization and compliance needs.

Global Perspective

The loosening of US policies may stimulate other countries (such as the EU and Japan) to adjust their crypto regulatory stance and accelerate the competition between global central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and stablecoins. China's digital renminbi (DC/EP) may further exert its strength in cross-border payments to offset the impact of the United States.

5. Market sentiment and the future outlook of Bitcoin

Short term (1-2 weeks)

• Sentiment: The market may gradually turn optimistic after digesting the policy details and pay attention to the news of the first batch of pilot projects of banks.

• Price: Bitcoin may fluctuate between $90,000 and $95,000. If it breaks through $95,000, it may challenge the $100,000 mark.

Medium term (3-6 months)

• Sentiment: Institutional entry and stablecoin issuance will boost confidence, but community concerns about centralization may spark controversy.

• Price: If bank nodes are operated on a large scale, the increase in Bitcoin computing power may push up the price to $110,000-120,000.

Long term (1-2 years)

• Sentiment: The integration of crypto and traditional finance deepens, market sentiment tends to stabilize, and attention is paid to global regulatory coordination.

• Price: Bitcoin consolidates its position as a strategic reserve asset and may stabilize above $150,000.

Conclusion

The implementation of the OCC policy is an important turning point for the crypto industry in 2025. It not only breaks the barriers between banks and the crypto ecosystem, but also injects new momentum into Bitcoin's move from marginal assets to mainstream finance. Market sentiment and price fluctuations in the past 24 hours show that investors are still on the sidelines in the short term, but the long-term potential cannot be ignored. In the future, with the specific implementation of banks and the response of global regulators, the crypto market may usher in a new round of growth cycle. The evolution of Bitcoin is moving from "digital gold" to "strategic cornerstone", and in this process, the interweaving of market sentiment and price fluctuations will continue to provide us with an observation window.