The Bitcoin crash is a major opportunity, but the key is whether you are really ready?

Hello everyone, I am God K. I only like to study K-line. My friends call me “K-line maniac” and you can call me Lao K.

【K God said】

The weather has been unusual recently, so wear more clothes. New and old friends can follow the "Coin Circle Live" public account to prevent freezing. Many people are probably shivering, and even say that the bear market is coming. What Lao K needs to tell you is that any round of strong market conditions will have a wash-out that seems to be the beginning but not the beginning. If everyone thinks that the first stage is already a great acceleration, the second stage is more ruthless and sharper than the first stage. The plunge is not a risk, but an opportunity.

【News】

There is nothing interesting in the news. Various negative news will crash the market. After the crash, the negative news will be as if it never happened. Some will be clarified, and some will slowly disappear. News is just a tool in the financial market, used in conjunction with the market to strengthen a certain effect. There is no need to pay too much attention to it.

【Technical Analysis】

From a technical perspective, let's first make it clear that the sharp drop in Bitcoin is not a sign of a bear market, but a strong wash after the completion of the first stage of the bull market. The wash is to prepare for the start of the second stage. Therefore, the plunge is not a risk, nor a bear market, but an opportunity. As for whether you insist on thinking that a bear market is coming, there is nothing wrong with that. The market is already full of long and short views. Only when there are buyers and sellers can transactions be made and there can be market conditions. Lao K has always only stated his views on the market, not persuaded. As for right or wrong, the market can verify it afterwards, but it cannot be verified at the moment. To some extent, the so-called predictions are all guesses.

If we simply look at this round of market, it is easy to see that it has not ended. If we look at it from the perspective of history, it can also be understood as the end, but what does this end mean? It means that Bitcoin can return to more than $150:

Don't say this chart is not familiar, the next weekly chart also did this, so if you think this is the top, then there is only one way it can become the top - Bitcoin will fall to the $100 level. What bad news can cause such a drop? Is the market finished? If there is no such bad news that can cause such a drop, then this is not the top. If this is not the top, then the rules must be followed, and the place to go will definitely go.

Based on the judgment that Bitcoin cannot take the above-mentioned form, it is easy to conclude that it is not the top. Let’s continue to look down.

Since this round of market is in the third major segment in the overall market (as shown in the figure above), the third segment can be accelerated, decelerated or constant, which is uncertain. No matter which one, the first stage of the third major segment is completed and the second stage is about to start, so we need to put the cycle into a larger trend to judge the current situation. Let's look at the annual line first:

In the past, every time the trend broke through the previous high, it brought a very good wave of gains. What is this positive line at the moment? Is it just the beginning of the lotus?

Quarterly Line:

There is nothing wrong with the pattern itself. What we can see is that the previous two high points were both positive lines followed by negative lines and then bearish. But don’t forget that the quarterly line was closed in June, and there is still more than a month. And according to historical experience, even if it peaks, this month’s quarterly line will not fall below the previous positive line low point. It has already fallen to the previous positive line low point. There is more than a month left. Will Bitcoin stay at a low level for a month? Or do you have other intentions?

Monthly Line:

Since the rebound from 3,800 USD, especially the monthly line after 10,000 USD, it has closed positive every month for six consecutive months. The moving average did not step back once when it should have. Here, it not only stepped back but also fell below. What is this? Settle the account. As mentioned in yesterday's and today's articles, every time the moving average should have been stepped back to make the market more stable and upward, Li Ge did not choose it. Then after the end of the first stage of the rise, there was a thorough liquidation, which not only broke the short moving average, but even reached the vicinity of the secondary moving average. This kind of sharp sell-off is a miracle. But the trend is still upward and has not been changed by this decline.

Weekly level:

On the weekly level, it looks like the price has fallen sharply, but in fact, the second neckline of 28,800 USD has not been broken, so the so-called top is still not established. The suspected top or suspected bottom is only suspected before the neckline is broken or broken through. Only when it breaks or breaks through is it true. Moreover, the so-called top or bottom is just a shock pattern. After the shock, it cannot break through to become a top, or cannot break through to become a bottom. Then it can also break through to become an upward relay or break through to become a downward relay.

Furthermore, pay attention to the volume. Comparing the volume during the 312 crash and the subsequent rise, we can see that both are gradually increasing. There was a period of shrinking and sideways trading in the middle, but the market rose higher in the future. At present, in the 40,000-60,000 US dollar area, please pay attention to the serious reduction in volume. In this case, the top is reached, and the main force has not shipped. What is the point of doing it? Are they trapping themselves?

The RSI indicator has also been corrected from a high level to a low level, that is to say, the indicator repair has been completed.

Daily Line:

Many people repeatedly say that this is the top, so let me ask a simple question. Bitcoin broke through the historical high in December 2020, and the space after the breakthrough is only about 3 times. Let's assume that the market is consistent. Brother Li actually laid out N years ago. So, I would like to ask, the historical high that suppressed the market for 2 years, you broke through just to go around and then fall back? Just for this 3-fold increase? Spending so much effort, is there something wrong with the main force?

This pattern is nothing in a strong market. It is just a threat to those who chase the rise after the breakthrough, and it is also a threat to those who hold long-term chips at low positions. For example, you can ask yourself, if you bought at a relatively high position, are you afraid? If you bought at a low position, seeing this situation, coupled with the negative news on the street and people constantly telling you that the blockchain is a scam, the market has peaked and the bear market is coming, are you panicking? How many people can and dare to hold on to their chips?

Let’s change the angle.

The dialogue between the main force and the old leeks before 2018:

Brother Li: It’s been two years. I know it’s not easy for you. Now that you have made money, just leave.

Old Leek: I haven’t made much money in two years, how can I bear to leave?

Li Ge: I have already given you a 3-fold profit margin. 3-fold in two years, is that enough? Don't be too greedy.

Old Leek: You want to get rid of me after only 3 times in two years? Do you think I'm a beggar? I won't leave.

Brother Li: Since you have made up your mind, I won’t say much. You’d better learn from your mistakes.

What happened next has been played out many times in movies.

You can imagine the scene of the above conversation. Then compare your own mentality. Before the bull market started, what did you think? I would be satisfied if I got 50% back. Then when it really came, I started to think about getting back all the money and leaving. Then when it came, I started to think about profits again. 50% was not enough, one time was not enough, three times was not enough... Greed never stops. In this case, do you think the main force is doing good? Since the bear market can't kill you, and I have to make the market, then I let you get rid of the chips, leave the chips, and you leave, but you still don't leave. If you don't accept the toast, you will drink the penalty wine. If you don't make money, you won't sell it. I'll smash the market, will you sell it? Based on the fear of the bear market, you will suffer a huge loss every few years. In such a comparison, how many people's mentality will not explode? As long as your mentality explodes, do you still want to hold the chips? You still want to make money in the bull market, but you can make a hammer.

There is nothing new in the financial market, it is a constant cycle. If you forget your original intention and keep struggling in this cycle, you will find that you will get nothing. For example, in the current market, on March 13, 2020, I calculated the space limit, which is the ultimate. But in the middle process, it was constantly corrected because of the main force's tossing. The initial 630 mode (60,000 callback to 30,000) then became the 75710 mode (first 70,000, then 50,000, and then 100,000), and then adjusted to the 44410 mode, 710 mode... Various fine-tuning of the form made by the main force, as a result, it returned to the original 630 mode. This is the result of constantly following the K-line, there is no benefit, but infinite disadvantages. If you don't toss, you at least get the amplitude from the beginning to the end. But if you toss, it seems to enlarge the space, but without the possibility of accurately predicting the details, the space is not adding but subtracting, and it may even directly eliminate you-because of the contract.

Therefore, it is important to calm down.

As for the current details, the daily line here is doomed to take time to repair because of the sharp drop. I calculated last night that this repair period will take about ten trading days, which means that the market will not have much reaction in the next ten days, and it will always go up and down repeatedly. Why is this so? It's very simple. Since it is a scary head, it is natural to do a full show - you sold high at 60,000 or 50,000 before, and you think you are very capable. You also bought at the 30,000 line. Then here I will make you start to hesitate and hesitate about the bottom-hunting part. Let's see how long you can hold it? For those Pixiu that have not moved, I will toss it here repeatedly for some time. If you were not afraid before, your mentality will gradually change. Let's see if you are afraid?

So, nothing is easy. You always wonder why others can make a lot of money, but you can't, and you make a lot of money in the bull market. The core lies in your indecisiveness. You are always chasing the rhythm, and you always get beaten. When you are successful in chasing ups and downs, others are waiting silently. In the financial market, looking at the world, no matter what market it is, it is the accumulation of time that increases. The cycle of the currency circle is already very fast. If you don't have the patience to accumulate this cycle, then there will be no good results in any financial market. Instead of floating in the K-line, it is better to calm down and study the industry and projects to find future wealth opportunities. If you don't want to study, then spend more time with your family, otherwise you are wasting your life-you can't understand it, it's easy to be fooled, and you have to stare at it. It can only be described in one sentence-two eggs hit the head: idle (salty) egg pain.

That’s all for today. I wish you all a smooth investment. Follow the trend and keep pace with time. I am Pixiu K, and I will continue to be Pixiu. See you on Monday.

PS: If you think it is good, please read the comments and forward it three times. Thank you for your support. In addition, Lao K has been live streaming in the Guibi (www.guibi.com) community for the past three years. Welcome everyone to come and play with me. My interactive time is from 14:00 to 18:00 every Monday to Friday. And every Monday night from 20:00 to 22:00 is my open class time. I will explain to you my method of analyzing the market without reservation. I look forward to communicating with you in real time in the community.