Bitcoin price drops amid uncertainty over XT release

After traders woke up to Gavin Andre and Mike Hearn’s public announcement about the XT release, the price of Bitcoin began to lose balance and fluctuate wildly. The uncertainty of the Bitcoin blockchain hard fork expectation has already expressed itself vividly in the chart, and this is for granted: we believe that forks and larger block sizes are technically risky and threatening behavior for Bitcoin itself.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Bitstamp 4-hour chart (updated at 7am UTC on August 16)

 
From xbt.social report earlier today:
The price returned to its old lows - or even below that - and on other exchange charts - the indicator registered a divergence signal.

We do not have a clear directional analysis statement and we encourage our members to maintain short-term positions until their dynamic stops force an exit.

Of course, you can also choose to stop your operation at a key position (such as the current low), and then wait to enter the trend operation again, but - just like flying - takeoff and landing are the most dangerous moments.

By officially releasing Bitcoin XT at 17:00 on Saturday, McHearn has now successfully created a factor of uncertainty in the Bitcoin ecosystem and the damage (or destruction) that could result from it. The market's performance in this process was that prices trended lower yesterday, and the release of his announcement provided a catalyst.

The question is where will it end? Mike Hearn has been described by developers on various occasions as someone who is technically incapable of providing stable operation of his bitcoinj software, while Gavin Anderson has been accused of being even worse. Accusations like these are not worth arguing about here.

What is concerning is that some developers believe they can ignore Bitcoin’s consensus rules, implicitly putting other people’s assets and Bitcoin itself at risk in the process.

According to the analysis forecast provided in the past two weeks, the downside target is $252/CNY1550, while today's target is $230 and potentially $210.

Bitfinex 1-hour chart (updated 15:00 UTC, August 16)

The price has stopped falling and started a correction due to the divergence of the RSI (up). Then, pushing the price higher, the price is only making a lower high due to the reverse divergence of the RSI, but the RSI has made a higher high due to the previous swing, it may still push higher, but the final result should be a new price low.

The current low is oddly set at $256. 256MB is exactly the size that the XT version is expected to reach by 2026 after it is released in 2016, starting with 8MB and doubling every two years. Let’s hope that the price doesn’t rise to the 2024 block size…

Summarize

The decline is due to uncertainty and negative sentiment, like the controversy surrounding the current XT version and a few Bitcoin Core developers. The target of the decline is $252/1550 CNY, and possibly $230/1500 CNY.

Bitfinex Depth Chart and Bid/Ask Volume Monitor: