Big data becomes an investment tool, how can market sentiment be monetized?

In the 2014 World Cup, Baidu used big data analysis to achieve 100% accuracy in its predictions for the quarter-finals and the round of 16. If 2013 was the first year of big data, then 2014 was the first year of big data prediction. Since then, the unique role of big data in prediction has gradually emerged.

In September this year, the first website in the domestic Bitcoin industry that uses big data as a selling point appeared - Bifu.com. This may also be the first website in the global digital currency industry to provide专业数据分析and投资建议.

Market sentiment has become an investment tool

It is not uncommon to provide investment services through big data analysis in all walks of life. In the traditional stock field, common data analysis indicators include RSI relative strength index, KDJ stochastic index, MACD index smoothing average difference, etc. These indicators are often used to analyze stock trends to provide users with investment references.

Similarly,市场情绪has gradually developed into an investment tool in recent years. In the traditional stock field, domestic companies that use similar sentiment indexes to provide reference services for investment include "Investment Pulse Network" and "Stock Radar Network". It is reported that the number of stock investors in China is around 70 million to 100 million, and the number of users of Stock Radar Network has exceeded 7 million, with a user conversion rate of about 7%-10%.

Compared with the fierce competition in the mature traditional stock futures market, providing investment guidance services based on market sentiment in the emerging digital currency industry is indeed a blue ocean.

Pan Guoli, the founder of Bifu.com, has conducted long-term observations of the Bitcoin industry and tracking research on community-related social media data. Based on a certain algorithm, he summarized a "社会化情绪指数" that has a strong correlation with Bitcoin prices.

In the Bitcoin industry, there are many users who use技术指标to guide investment and trading. However,社会化情绪指数is fundamentally different from traditional technical indicators: the calculation of the sentiment index does not directly or indirectly refer to price-related data (such as opening and closing prices, highest and lowest prices, and trading volume, etc.), but rather obtains a certain value through real-time statistical analysis of various data generated by social media. Although the calculation process does not involve any price data, it maintains a strong correlation with the price.

It is understood that due to the situation that some trading platforms have users or robots brushing the trading volume, the traditional "technical indicators" that rely on trading volume are often distorted and cannot well reflect the actual market situation. In comparison, "relying on data" has become the biggest selling point of Bifu.com.

In August this year, Pan Guoli formed a VIP group for Bifu.com and invited more than 100 people to join the group. These people were the first to experience the early data test station of Bifu.com. Jiang Haokun was one of the first users to join the VIP group. "I will look at MA and KDJ, and I will also take a look at the market, but it is useless. The trend line may be shown to you by the official, and sometimes there are false lines. You must have something unofficial to look at," he said. "This (Bifu.com) is mainly based on the peak of emotions, and it feels more than 80% accurate."

When Pan Guoli is free, he will analyze real-time data and guide everyone in the VIP group to speculate in cryptocurrencies. On August 25 (the price of the currency was around 1,300), he used ten bitcoins as capital and traded once a day on average. By August 31 (the price of the currency was around 1,450), he had earned 1.7 bitcoins.

Many people have truly tasted the benefits of big data prediction. Jiang Haokun said, "It is no exaggeration to say that my monthly profit has increased several times compared to before."

Unlike other services that provide forecast-based investment guidance, in order to protect users' profits, Bifu.com has evaluated the entire market capacity, and the number of gold members in the first batch is tentatively set at dozens, and the number of silver members is tentatively set at more than 100. The membership fee will also consider a浮动定价机制, and everything will be decided by the market.

Do automated strategy trading based on big data

For Pan Guoli, what he cares most about is how to do things well. "I turned data into a service because I think big data is very useful," Pan Guoli said. "Data reflects the situation of the entire market from another perspective. As a perfectionist, I believe that things that I think are useful and can be used will have a market. If everyone can read the various data analyses and articles I have been doing last year carefully, you will make a lot more money and reduce a lot of losses."

He repeatedly stressed that Bifu.com does not make price predictions, but only provides data services, and users make their own judgments and operations based on the data. In the early stage, users will be guided and the relevance and rules of the data will be explained. Once users are familiar with it, Bifu.com will no longer provide guidance.

The data currently provided to users by Bifu.com is differentiated by three dimensions:新鲜度,精确度, and更新频率. According to the different accuracy of the data provided, it is divided into four levels, providing data with an accuracy of one week, 15-60 minutes, updated every 5 minutes, and high-precision real-time updated data. The validity period of data in different time periods is different. The shorter the time period, the shorter the validity period.

If you want to judge the price of a currency in the next few hours, you may focus on the 5-minute and 15-minute sentiment values; if you are a cryptocurrency expert and focus on super short-term operations, then you may have to keep an eye on the 1-minute and 3-minute sentiment values.

Talking about future plans, Pan Guoli said: "In fact, what I want to do most is自动化策略交易based on big data. At present, automated trading (also known as quantitative trading) in the securities market is very mature, and many people write programs to automatically trade stocks. In the digital currency circle, there are also many teams doing quantitative trading, which is what we often call robot trading. But I think quantitative trading combined with大数据and人工智能is the general trend of future development. We will find a more professional team to cooperate in this area."