Contract trading = gambling?

Contract trading = gambling?

——Gambling is about probability , and contract trading is about trend .

Contract trading and gambling have something in common in some aspects. For example, both try to create profits in a short period of time. Both contract trading and gambling involve the transfer of wealth but do not create new wealth. Both are subject to a certain degree of suspicion.

How many people are there in front of the Macau Baccarat machine recording the big and small numbers and then calculating the probability ; how many people are there in sports lottery using data analysis to calculate the probability of winning next time . Many people say that contract trading is gambling, and if you bet well, you will make a lot of money , but if you bet badly, you will lose everything . So is contract trading really equal to gambling?

In fact, there is an essential difference between contract trading and gambling. Gambling is just a game of probability. It has its own specific rules and is not interfered by external events. The form of gambling may be relatively casual. You can easily play 21 points with friends at the table at home. However, contract trading is more susceptible to many factors. The factors of technical investors may be price charts and technical indicators, but most investors still have to pay attention to the latest developments of global events. Including: economic data, sudden international events, natural or human factors, the behavior and psychology of other relevant market investors, etc. Both fundamental investors and technical investors recognize the need to try to use relevant information in their specific market. Contract investors often think that they are more technical and scientific than gamblers because they use more complex formulas and algorithms to pursue benefits. Their characteristics that are different from gambling are also in the way of fund management. A mature investor will not put himself in a desperate situation of "one battle to decide the outcome".

Other differences between contract trading and gambling also come from the actual parameters of the two. Gambling is in a specific place and the opponent is also specific. This also causes gambling to contain more emotional effects. Although both contract trading and gambling contain random elements, or probability, the public tends to believe that luck plays a much greater role in gambling than in contract trading.

Gambling is about probability , while contract trading is about trends .

For example, in the recent Coinnice market, the price of Bitcoin rose from 1,580 yuan on October 13 to 2,588 yuan yesterday , a full increase of 1,000 yuan. In fact, the trend of this round of market is very obvious in the early and middle stages. Whether from the 15-minute and 4-hour lines of the K-line chart, or from the analysis of the golden cross and related technical indicators, the upward trend is very certain . In the medium-term rising channel, everyone chooses to go long in futures . This direction is not too difficult to achieve. In such an obvious upward trend, if you are unfortunate enough to miss it , you can also get advice from Mr. Cai's market analysis ( Coinnice WeChat subscription account "Bitcoin Wealth Investment" )- every callback is a good opportunity to absorb long positions, and many Coinnice users have benefited greatly from this , and the highest ones even won hundreds of times of investment returns .

Futures are a standard zero-sum market . In this market, there are gains and losses , but there is no doubt that the funds in the entire pool are balanced. Gambling sets the probability of winning or losing , such as the 55% compensation ratio of Nasdaq . Even the most calm players will eventually lose money from the overall perspective. Contract trading is balanced from the overall perspective . Investors who are truly wise and have investment operation skills in contract trading have the opportunity to win huge wealth . People are investing a lot of intellectual costs in contract trading .