Where Kevin Kelly falls short on Bitcoin

introduction

I really like the books written by Kevin Kelly. He recently published a new book, "The Inevitable", and I pre-ordered it as soon as possible.

This afternoon, Kevin Kelly's new book "The Inevitable" that my colleague bought arrived. After knowing this, I was so angry that I jumped up and down. Why hasn't my copy arrived yet? I'm not the first person I know to get "The Inevitable"! What the fuck!!!

I was angry, but I had to read it as soon as possible. I quickly opened the book and found the chapters related to Bitcoin that I already knew. After reading it, I was even angrier and wanted to throw the book on the ground. KK's understanding of Bitcoin is really frustrating.

This article attempts to analyze KK's description of Bitcoin in three books: Out of Control (1994), The Technological Element (2012), and The Inevitable (2015).

Chapter 1: Cryptocurrency Predictions in Out of Control

"Out of Control" Chapter 12 Electronic Currency 12.4 Anything with an electric charge can be used to recharge electronic currency, predicting the emergence of electronic currency. The original text is as follows: (The ellipsis is the author's omission of the original text, not the ellipsis in the original text)

“The alternative to cash on debit cards is true digital cash. … This cash requires no proprietary hardware or software. Therefore, money can be transferred between any person, anywhere. …”

"What makes this system work is cryptography. The method - technically called 'blind digital signatures' - is based on a proven variant of a technique called 'public key cryptography'. Here's how it works at the consumer level. You use a digital cash card to buy a fine roast at Uncle Joe's Meat Shop. The merchant verifies that the money paid to him has not been 'spent' before by checking the digital signature of the bank that issued the currency. However, he has no record of the payee. After the transaction is completed, the bank has a verification statement that shows that you spent $7 and only spent it once, and that Uncle Joe's Meat Shop did receive $7. ……."

I can see some shadows of Bitcoin in the digital cash mentioned above, such as "no need for dedicated hardware or software. Money can be transferred anywhere and between any individuals." Isn't that the case with Bitcoin? And the subsequent variants of public key encryption technology, don't they just correspond to the public and private key pairs of Bitcoin?

In Uncle Joe's example, the way to prevent double spending is to use the digital signature of the issuing bank that has been verified by the merchant. I see the shadow of the "private key signature" in this "digital signature". The "issuing bank" corresponds to the "full node" of Bitcoin.

"Out of Control" Chapter 12 Electronic Currency 12.5 Peer-to-Peer Finance and Super Small Money, KK predicts that electronic currency will be "privatized", the original text is as follows:

“Privatization. The convenience of electronic money in acquisition, delivery and generation makes it an ideal candidate for private currency. … The law of the Internet is: as long as the computer is connected to electronic money, whoever owns the computer owns not only the printing press, but also the mint. Quasi-currency will appear anywhere there is credit.”

If you have ever come into contact with Bitcoin, you will definitely think of "mining machines" based on it.

The above connection between KK’s electronic currency prediction and Bitcoin is somewhat far-fetched, but it makes sense. After all, "Out of Control" was written in 1994, when even the Internet was not well developed.

Chapter 2: The Hidden Anonymous Market in Technological Elements

KK expressed an extremely pessimistic mood towards Bitcoin in "Technical Elements", and even said that Bitcoin will definitely be cracked. For details, you can read the chapter "Secret Anonymous Market" in Chapter 2 of the book. Below I have excerpted the most important sentences of KK on Bitcoin.

The chapter "Secret Anonymous Market" is about the famous "Silk Road". The Silk Road used two technologies to achieve anonymity in market transactions. The first is to use the onion network to complete anonymous transactions. The second is to use Bitcoin to make payment behavior untraceable. Here are a few sentences from the original text:

“However, since both the Tor network and Bitcoin are open source, experts can still see the tricks behind them. Any private currency, any encryption scheme has its inherent challenges. Once these systems come into contact with the legal world (and they are indeed useful in the legal world), they can be cracked, deceived, hacked, and even destroyed.”

"Bitcoin, in particular, is extremely complex. It is a private currency, and any private currency can be a scam. It is even more likely to be an anonymous peer-to-peer private currency because there is no central law enforcement in the traditional sense. Bitcoin technology is amazing and complex to the point of being beyond the comprehension of most lay users. I recommend that before you decide to use Bitcoin, you at least read this thought-provoking critique written by a skeptic. His argument is that Bitcoin is designed in a way that favors early adopters (whose Bitcoins grow in value faster than later adopters), and therefore Bitcoin is more like a pyramid scheme. This critic has a long-term vision, so long-term that his cold water may not be enough to stop a kid from taking drugs this week."

"Also, the comments say nothing about potential weaknesses in Bitcoin's encryption. Generally speaking, encryption that is not directly broken is indirectly broken through usage. As the cypherpunks say, encryption is economics. Anything can be hacked for enough money. So as long as the amount of money in these hidden markets is not that obvious, they will be safe. But once these currencies break a certain critical mass, the efforts to crack Bitcoin will begin. Maybe hackers will analyze traffic byte by byte throughout the network, maybe some well-received marijuana dealers will be tricked into going to untrusted places - anything is possible."

The above three paragraphs are the original text, which shows that KK has a completely negative attitude towards Bitcoin, directly comparing Bitcoin to a scam. He then further expressed doubts about the encryption properties of Bitcoin itself, saying that Bitcoin will be cracked.

But what I want to say is that KK was so wrong, so wrong that he was amateurish.

One of the purposes of Bitcoin’s design is to solve the decentralized double-spending problem of currency, which is to solve the problem of fraud in the process of currency use. Its open source nature also distinguishes it from scams.

KK described Bitcoin as open source in the first paragraph and claimed that experts can see the tricks behind it, but in the second paragraph he claimed that Bitcoin is very likely a scam. This is contradictory in itself. If experts can see the tricks behind open source, how can they not recognize that it is a scam?

KK used "a certain skeptic" to express that the design of Bitcoin is beneficial to its early adopters, and bluntly said that this is like a pyramid scheme. Early adopters are more advantageous, which is a fact in the real world. No matter which successful company, entrepreneurs and original stock holders make the most money. This is a natural thing. There are similar attributes in pyramid schemes, which cannot prove that Bitcoin is a pyramid scheme. If KK really thinks this is the case, then he should accuse all the entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley of being pyramid scheme scammers.

KK then double-checked the potential weaknesses of Bitcoin encryption and said that Bitcoin can definitely be cracked indirectly. KK did not directly say what cracking Bitcoin means, but it can be inferred from the article that KK has two meanings:

The security property of Bitcoin itself has been cracked, which means it can be double-spent.

The anonymity property of Bitcoin has been cracked.

Regarding the double-spending, KK claimed that hackers can analyze traffic byte by byte, which does pose a threat to the security of Bitcoin. For example, the ductility attack some time ago. Hackers can analyze the broadcast data structure of the spent Bitcoin and replace a part of it to achieve the purpose of destruction. But this did not successfully attack the security of Bitcoin, but only caused a certain delay to the Bitcoin network. It is an exaggeration to claim that the security properties of Bitcoin have been cracked. The data broadcast by Bitcoin itself is not encrypted, and anyone can obtain and analyze it. Its security is not based on the encrypted transmission of data, but on hash functions, elliptic encryption algorithms, proof of work, etc. These are all mathematics. Unless hackers can break the mathematical laws, who can attack 1+1=2? Who can launch the mathematical attack mentioned in "The Three-Body Problem"?

If, as KK said, the economic attributes of Bitcoin have reached a prominent level, hackers will take action to crack Bitcoin, then the market value of Bitcoin has reached 5 billion US dollars. If Bitcoin is a country, its GDP would already be ranked among the top 150 in the world. Why don't hackers take action?

KK's subsequent description says that Bitcoin's anonymous transactions can be set up, thus losing their anonymity. But Bitcoin is really not an anonymous currency, or the anonymity attribute is not an important attribute of Bitcoin at all. Bitcoin is a set of public ledgers. Once others know your public key, the flow of your money is all public. What KK said about setting up anonymous transactions is completely believable and will definitely exist, but it does not undermine the brightness and greatness of Bitcoin.

Chapter 3 Decentralization in "The Inevitable"

KK explained the concepts of blockchain, Bitcoin and decentralization in the section “Decentralization” in Chapter 5 of “The Inevitable”.

The article begins by saying that "decentralization" is an inevitable trend, but mentions that currency has not been decentralized - "behind the currency there is a central bank that is always vigilant." Then the article changes direction and describes how Bitcoin has achieved the decentralization of currency. The original text is as follows:

"Six years ago, a group of notorious criminals wanted to use the anonymity of cash to sell drugs online, so they wanted to find a currency without government intervention. And some respectable people who support human rights are also struggling to find a monetary system that can work outside of corrupt or repressive governments, and in places where there is no government at all. In the end, the currency they came up with together is Bitcoin."

"Bitcoin is a completely decentralized, distributed currency that does not require a central bank to be responsible for its accuracy, enforcement, and regulation. Since its introduction in 2009, there are 3 billion bitcoins in circulation, and 100,000 merchants accept it as payment. Perhaps Bitcoin is best known for its anonymity and the black market it has inspired. Let's put aside the anonymity issue for now - it's always a distraction. Bitcoin's most important innovation is its 'blockchain' - the mathematical technology that makes it so powerful, and it is a revolutionary invention that can decentralize many systems beyond money."

“When I send you 1 Bitcoin, there is no central intermediary involved. Our transaction is recorded in a public ledger (a blockchain) that is distributed to all other Bitcoin holders around the world. This shared database records the transaction history of every Bitcoin in existence and who owns it. That’s pretty crazy, it’s like everyone having a complete transaction history of every dollar! This Bitcoin distributed database is updated 6 times an hour to record all new Bitcoin transactions; before a new transaction between you and me is finalized, it must be mathematically verified by a large number of other Bitcoin holders. In this way, a blockchain establishes trust in money through a peer-to-peer system.”

“As Bitcoin proponents say, when you use Bitcoin, you replace trust in government with trust in math.”

“Some startups and venture capitalists are dreaming of applying blockchain technology to other areas, such as using this decentralized account system to manage real estate tripartite deeds and mortgage contracts.”

“Whether or not Bitcoin itself is successful, its blockchain innovation will facilitate the development of peer-to-peer trust systems, which will further promote the decentralization of many institutions and industries.”

“An important aspect of blockchain is that it’s a public commons. No one person really owns it because everyone owns it.”

“The decentralized web/internet is what centralized citizenship is today. The beauty of the web is that it works for me as if I owned it, and I have to do very little to maintain it. I summon it at the flick of a finger. I enjoy all the benefits of its amazing ability to work — answer questions like a genius, navigate like a wizard, entertain myself like an expert — without the burden of ownership, just by using it.”

This time, KK from "Necessary" has a much more moderate understanding of Bitcoin. Even though he still does not cheer for Bitcoin like most Bitcoin enthusiasts, his praise for Bitcoin is evident in his words.
Before describing Bitcoin, KK still used extremely negative emotions, using words like "notorious" to discredit Bitcoin. This shows that KK hates the "Silk Road" to the core. Combined with the description in "Technical Elements", KK may really want to kill this black market immediately.

Fortunately, KK then paid tribute to Bitcoin, claiming that it helps people fight against corruption and brutal governments. This is something we Bitcoin enthusiasts can all see, and it is one of the major achievements of Bitcoin in recent years. Bitcoin has provided foreign exchange services in places where banks are unable to do so or where bank charges are too high. Those places, such as Africa and Latin America, are the poorest places in the world, and the people there will sincerely thank Bitcoin. Bitcoin has also made contributions in fighting against corrupt and brutal governments. Argentines exchanged the government's excessively issued pesos for Bitcoin to resist the government's endless exploitation. Venezuelan businessmen use Bitcoin to do business with the Chinese to avoid the blockade of the US dollar. Similar benefits are spreading in every corner of the world, just like the gospel of God.

In "The Elements of Technology", KK irresponsibly said that Bitcoin can be cracked, but this time it has changed. KK understands the reasons why Bitcoin works. At least he provides Bitcoin's transaction verification mechanism, Bitcoin's distributed storage technology, and public ledgers. He also claims through the mouths of Bitcoin enthusiasts that Bitcoin's security is "trusted by mathematics." This time, KK has no doubts about Bitcoin's security mechanism.

KK also participated in the century-long debate of "Bitcoin VS Blockchain".

However, KK still expressed his lack of trust in Bitcoin, and focused on describing the world of "blockchain" (this article does not excerpt too much, readers are advised to buy the book and read it on their own). KK bluntly said "regardless of whether Bitcoin itself is successful" and "the most important innovation of Bitcoin is its 'blockchain'". From the two words "whether" and the vision of blockchain in the following text, it can be clearly seen that KK believes that blockchain is the real innovation, not Bitcoin.

Sorry, I still have to express disrespect to KK here. For example, in "Technical Elements", KK showed a completely amateur state. In "Inevitable", KK is also a liberal arts student for Bitcoin. Although he is not a "literary fool", he is just a "literary and artistic little fresh". In the world of Bitcoin, KK is just like the "dog lover" who stops dog cars on the North Fifth Ring Road in Beijing, and just like the "Chai Jing bitch" who accuses large-scale industrialization of polluting the atmosphere... In their eyes, the fairness, justice, happiness and wealth of this world are given by God, as if they never need to pay. They claim that "blockchain" can strip Bitcoin and serve mankind at no cost, and it can be free. Blockchain is the real innovation, but Bitcoin is not.

I can’t just express my feelings, I still have to provide evidence to prove that KK is actually a “liberal arts student”.

The "blockchain" technology itself is not really cutting-edge. It is essentially a p2p transmission technology. We used BT downloads more than ten years ago, using what is now known as blockchain technology. KK's statement that "the most important innovation of Bitcoin is its 'blockchain'" is fundamentally wrong.

The real innovation is how to generate decentralized consensus, and the real innovation is how to give credit to encryption technology as described in KK's old work "Out of Control". This is Bitcoin.

Professor Li Xiaolai said it well, Bitcoin is an irreversible invention. What is an irreversible invention? It means that it is nothing when it does not exist, but once it appears, the world cannot return to the state without it.

I have discussed my views in detail before. If you are interested, you can refer to "Can blockchain products that abandon Bitcoin survive?"

Chapter 4 Some Feelings

KK predicted the arrival of electronic cryptocurrency in the last century. I don’t know why when Bitcoin really came out, KK acted like a hypocrite and criticized Bitcoin.

I don’t know why KK smeared Bitcoin so much in “Technical Elements” just three years after Bitcoin came out.

Three years later, when Bitcoin has grown into a real entity with a market value of more than 5 billion US dollars, KK still lacks confidence in Bitcoin.

The "black market" has appeared repeatedly in "Out of Control", "Technical Elements" and "The Inevitable". This anonymous transaction has brought endless fear to KK. Perhaps it is because of this that KK is so disgusted and expresses his pessimism about Bitcoin.

No matter what KK thinks, I love Bitcoin. Even though he is my idol.